Preakness

[trifectarich]

1 Mint Slewlep Garcia 30-1
2 Xchanger Dominguez 15-1
3 Circular Quay John Velasquez 8-1
4 Curlin Albarado 7-2
5 King of the Roxy Gomez 12-1
6 Flying First Class Guidry 20-1
7 Hard Spun Pino 5-2
8 Street Sense Borel 7-5
9 C P West Prado 20-1

This doesn't look like a great opportunity for big payoffs. For that to happen, I think two of the three big favorites (4, 7, 8) would have to run out of the money and that just doesn't appear to be likely. I give the 1, 6 and 9 no chance to win whatsoever and won't be surprised if the top three finishers from the Derby are also in the top three at Pimlico.

The value play looks to be King of the Roxy at 12-to-1.

Good luck to everyone.

 

[Blitz]

I'm picking Circular Quay to finish first and Street Sense to take second.
1-2 exacta

 

[playthrough]

This looks like an incredibly uninteresting field. A 4-7-8 trifecta, highly likely, would be lucky to return $50.

 

[silvercharm]

Circular Quay and Curlin would be my top picks to win Saturday. The Derby was their Preakness "prep," if you will. Both needed a good hard race. They've got it, they're set, and I believe both will finish in the top 3. Other than Street Sense and Hard Spun, no one else has a shot at the top 2 slots. For third, maybe Xchanger and King of the Roxy.

I'd play a trifecta looking something like 3-4 w/3-4-7-8 w/2-3-4-5-7-8, then a 3-4-7-8 w/3-4 w/2-3-4-5-7-8. Then I'd come back and pound trifectas with the four favorites, needing Curlin and/or CQ to run among the top 2. 3-4 w/3-4-7-8 w/ 3-4-7-8 and 3-4-7-8 w/ 3-4 w/ 3-4-7-8.

I'm all for betting longshots, but sometimes, it's not worth the fight.

 

[WSKY]

Horse racing = who cares unless it's the derby.

 

[trifectarich]

If you're trying to find a winner and you're not crazy about Street Sense at short odds, I'll give you Andrew Beyer's great stat of the day: Since 1990, eight horses have won the Derby with a rally from 12th place or farther back. Seven of those horses ran the Preakness, and all of them lost.

 

[Dignan]

Horse racing = who cares unless even if it's the derby.

Fixed.

 

[RedHotChiliPrepper]

There's just something about Flying First Class that I really like. Everything I've read about this horse has given me reason to think he has a shot. He's rested from not running the banging around version of the derby and Lukas said he's a better fit for the Preakness.

So I'm putting money on him to win and in an exacta box with Street Sense.

 

[lollygagger]

I'd like to give Lukas the benefit of the doubt, but I think Flying First Class is in over his head in this field. The Derby Trial isn't much of a race any more, and this horse has only won at less than a mile.

If there's any money to be made here, it's probably on Circular Quay, but I don't think there is. I like Hard Spun over Curlin.

 

[Key]

Doesn't look like there's much love for horse racing on this board, but that was one helluva race.

 

[imjustagirl2]

I heart Robby Albarado.

 

[KP]

Very good race and kudos to playthrough for hitting the trifecta payout on the nose (even if he/she had Hard Spun and Street Sense backwards).

 

[MertWindu]

Man, Prado gave C P West a hell of a ride there. Nearly had a heart attack, with my last words being something along the lines of "Go, you mother! Go!"

So close.

 

[playthrough]

Very good race and kudos to playthrough for hitting the trifecta payout on the nose (even if he/she had Hard Spun and Street Sense backwards).

Thank you very much. (And I'm a he, for the record) Glad I didn't bet it, 'cause I would have played a bunch of combinations in a dollar tri wheel, and the $25 payoff wouldn't have gone far.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Those were three fine horses, all well rode, in that race. If it had been the Derby, we'd never have heard the end of it.

 

[Ben_Hecht]

Atrocious ride by Pino. Presence of Zito's horse didn't help, but Pino pulled the trigger far too hard, and far too early.

 

[cranberry]

Those were three fine horses, all well rode, in that race. If it had been the Derby, we'd never have heard the end of it.

Now, which of these horses -- Curlin', Street Sense, Hard Spun -- has the endurance for a mile and a half at Belmont?

 

[Double Down]

Atrocious ride by Pino. Presence of Zito's horse didn't help, but Pino pulled the trigger far too hard, and far too early.

Wrong. The only chance he had was for Curlin and Street Sense to get caught in traffic. Those two horses in front of him flat died. He had to get around them. He didn't even really pull the trigger. The horse just didn't have enough in the end. Hard Spun is the third best horse out there. That's just the reality of it.

 

[cranberry]

Atrocious ride by Pino. Presence of Zito's horse didn't help, but Pino pulled the trigger far too hard, and far too early.

Wrong. The only chance he had was for Curlin and Street Sense to get caught in traffic. Those two horses in front of him flat died. He had to get around them. He didn't even really pull the trigger. The horse just didn't have enough in the end. Hard Spun is the third best horse out there. That's just the reality of it.

Vic Ziegal of the NY Daily News made a good point:

Hard Spun went 1:09.80 for the first six furlongs and that was two seconds quicker than a horse named Secretariat, who was on the way to breaking the track record.

Now, he may have felt he had to pull the trigger early to get around the other two horses, but it seems to me that getting out there too quickly cost him any chance of winning the race without Street Sense and Curlin' both falling down on the stretch.

 

[Ben_Hecht]

I love Jones. I respect Pino, especially when he's operating in the Maryland/Delaware area.
But that wasn't a good ride, and I'm pretty sure he knows it. Early hints are that they'll go to New York for a race which has eaten up speed horses handled by trainers loyal to secondary-circuit riders.
His speed makes him dangerous, but he's got to be rated properly.