New running primaries thread

[DanOregon]

So Bill Clinton doesn't like Todd Purdum's take on him in Vanity Fair:
"[He's] sleazy," he said referring to Purdum. "He's a really dishonest reporter. And one of our guys talked to him . . . And I haven't read [the article]. But he told me there's five or six just blatant lies in there. But he's a real slimy guy," the former president said.

When I reminded him that Purdum was married to his former press spokesperson Myers, Clinton was undeterred.

"That's all right-- he's still a scumbag," Clinton said. " Let me tell ya-- he's one of the guys -- he's one of the guys that propagated all those lies about Whitewater to Kenneth Starr. He's just a dishonest guy-- can't help it."

Too bad Bill couldn't get this story spiked like he did on the GQ one last year. And by the way, I agree with Bill that using an unnamed source or sources to relate what another unnamed person has said, without getting that other unnamed person to confirm an unflattering anecdote is very lame.

 

[PopeDirkBenedict]

FiveThirtyEight (a site run by a Kos diarist and Obama supporter who uses all sorts of sophisticated modeling) has Obama-McCain as a virtual dead-heat and has Clinton beating McCain 65% of the time.

According to their numbers, Hillary will do much better in Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Obama is a better choice to win in Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. Interesting site.

*Again, this doesn't take away from the fact that we have a long way to go and a lot can change*

 

[Chi City 81]

FiveThirtyEight (a site run by a Kos diarist and Obama supporter who uses all sorts of sophisticated modeling) has Obama-McCain as a virtual dead-heat and has Clinton beating McCain 65% of the time.

According to their numbers, Hillary will do much better in Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Obama is a better choice to win in Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. Interesting site.

*Again, this doesn't take away from the fact that we have a long way to go and a lot can change*

538 is run by a regular contributor to Baseball Prospectus (whose name escapes me at the moment.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

FiveThirtyEight (a site run by a Kos diarist and Obama supporter who uses all sorts of sophisticated modeling) has Obama-McCain as a virtual dead-heat and has Clinton beating McCain 65% of the time.

How much of that is Bradley effect? People saying they'd vote for Obama so they won't appear racist, but will change their tune in the voting booth.

 

[PopeDirkBenedict]

FiveThirtyEight (a site run by a Kos diarist and Obama supporter who uses all sorts of sophisticated modeling) has Obama-McCain as a virtual dead-heat and has Clinton beating McCain 65% of the time.

How much of that is Bradley effect? People saying they'd vote for Obama so they won't appear racist, but will change their tune in the voting booth.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/reverse-bradley-effect-fact-or-fiction.html

 

[PopeDirkBenedict]

FiveThirtyEight (a site run by a Kos diarist and Obama supporter who uses all sorts of sophisticated modeling) has Obama-McCain as a virtual dead-heat and has Clinton beating McCain 65% of the time.

According to their numbers, Hillary will do much better in Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Obama is a better choice to win in Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. Interesting site.

*Again, this doesn't take away from the fact that we have a long way to go and a lot can change*

538 is run by a regular contributor to Baseball Prospectus (whose name escapes me at the moment.

I didn't know that, but it doesn't surprise me. Whoever this person is knows how run the data. I got a headache reading the FAQ section.

 

[zeke12]

It's Nate from Baseball Prospectus.

And his modeling is very interesting. Check out his 5/10/15 model for increased turnout if you really want to have your head blown back.

 

[PopeDirkBenedict]

It's Nate from Baseball Prospectus.

And his modeling is very interesting. Check out his 5/10/15 model for increased turnout if you really want to have your head blown back.

I can't find it off-hand. Got a link?

 

[Inky_Wretch]

It's Nate from Baseball Prospectus.

And his modeling is very interesting. Check out his 5/10/15 model for increased turnout if you really want to have your head blown back.

Where is that on his site?

(Tell Nate to install a Google search for his BLOG!)

 

[zeke12]

I'm looking for it right now.

It might be on Kos.

 

[zeke12]

Here you go.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/black-youth-and-latino-turnout-and.html

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Holy crap, that's good stuff.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Who knew NBC's Brian Williams loved dirt-track racing? He went waxed poetically about some track the Gallatin Speedway in Montana for like five minutes tonight after Jon Tester appeared on MSNBC.

 

[dixiehack]

I've heard him rave about NASCAR before, so it isn't totally surprising.

 

[PopeDirkBenedict]

I've heard him rave about NASCAR before, so it isn't totally surprising.

IIRC, he was interviewed for the Dale Earnhardt Sr. SportsCentury episode

 

[DanOregon]

This will be my last post on the primaries thread (NOW IS THE TIME for the general election thread), but I wanted to say what a great thread this was through its two incarnations, the back and forth, the insights from all sides and things that made me want to look into other candidate. I especially appreciated the post from the friend of the HRC staffer showing Hillary from a different perspective, great stuff. I'll look forward to further discussions on the race for the White House, but this thread was always a daily read.

 

[PopeDirkBenedict]

I was just talking to my dad, who had an interesting theory.

My dad is a blue collar, union steelworker. Most of his co-workers vote Democrat, but he is so staunchly pro-life, that his voting order goes: pro-life D > pro-life R > pro-choice D > pro-choice R.

He said that with Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush and Obama, you can tell just by watching them that they are likeable guys. If you watched them with the TV muted, their facial expressions and body language all but invite you to like them, even if you vehemently disagree with what they are saying. McCain is almost the opposite. Because he has odd facial expressions -- his Joker grin in odd places -- and awkward body language -- as a result of his POW beatings -- you have to listen to him and what he says and THEN he can become likeable. Given the superficial nature of many independent voters, this will help Obama a ton.

 

[DemoChristian]

You're not superficial, just afraid of commitment.

 

[buckweaver]

Ha, **** that. The GOP doesn't reflect my views, and the Dems are too embarrassing to deserve my support. So I vote for who I want.

 

[TrooperBari]

Ha, **** that. The GOP doesn't reflect my views, and the Dems are too embarrassing to deserve my support. So I vote for who I want.

Not to mention the Libertarian and Green candidates aren't exactly inspiring choices.