NCAA Week 12

[Chef2]

All times est.
Important numbers from vegasinsider.com

• No. 1 LSU (-21) (64) at Ole Miss | 7 p.m. | ESPN
• No. 2 Ohio State (-51) (58.5) at Rutgers | 3:30 p.m. | Big Ten Network
• No. 3 Clemson (-30.5) (62.5)vs. Wake Forest | 3:30 p.m. | ABC
• No. 4 Alabama (-19.5) (63.5) at Mississippi State | 12 p.m. | ESPN
• No. 5 Georgia (-2.5) (45.5) at No. 13 Auburn | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
• No. 6 Oregon (-26) (68.5) vs. Arizona | 10:30 p.m. | ESPN
• No. 7 Minnesota at No. 23 Iowa (+3) (45.5) | 4 p.m. | FOX
• No. 8 Utah (-21) (54) vs. UCLA | 8 p.m. | FOX
• No. 9 Penn State vs. No. 24 Indiana (+14) (53.5)| 12 p.m. | ABC
• No. 10 Oklahoma (-9) (67) at No. 12 Baylor | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
• No. 11 Florida (-8) (47) at Missouri | 12 p.m. | CBS
• No. 14 Michigan (-14.5) (43.5) vs. Michigan State | 12 p.m. | FOX
• No. 15 Wisconsin (-13) (51.5) at Nebraska | 12 p.m. | Big Ten Network
• No. 16 Notre Dame vs. No. 21 Navy (+10) (55)| 2:30 p.m. | NBC
• No. 17 Cincinnati (-13) (49) at South Florida | 7 p.m. | CBSSN
• No. 18 Memphis (-9.5) (69.5) at Houston | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN2
• No. 19 Boise State (-27) (59.5) vs. New Mexico | 10:15 p.m. | ESPN2
• No. 22 Texas (+6) (64) at Iowa State | 3:30 p.m. | FS1
• No. 25 Oklahoma State (-17) (67.5) vs. Kansas | 12 p.m. | FS1

Other tasty nuggets sans Top 25 include.....

TCU @ Texas Tech (+1.5) (55)--11:00AM--ESPN2
Stanford @ Washington State (-10.5) (63)--4:30--PAC 12
Air Force (-10.5) (59) @ Colorado State--7:00--ESPN2
South Carolina @ Texas A&M(-10) (50.5)--7:30--SEC
West Virginia @ Kansas State(-14.5) (48)--4:00--ESPN
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh (-4.5) (50.5)--8:00--ESPN (11.14)

 

[BitterYoungMatador2]

UNC by 10

 

[Cosmo]

I mean, if you take Ohio State at that number, you also almost certainly have to take the over, right? Rutgers scores one touchdown and it goes over with an OSU cover (59-7, for instance).

 

[Chef2]

I mean, if you take Ohio State at that number, you also almost certainly have to take the over, right? Rutgers scores one touchdown and it goes over with an OSU cover (59-7, for instance).

If you bet Rutgers at that 51 number, you'd be a fool not to bet the over as well.

 

[poindexter]

I mean, if you take Ohio State at that number, you also almost certainly have to take the over, right? Rutgers scores one touchdown and it goes over with an OSU cover (59-7, for instance).

If you bet Rutgers at that 51 number, you'd be a fool not to bet the over as well.

That's a correlated parlay. I doubt they will let you parlay that. Let me know if you get that through.

 

[Cosmo]

Shows what I know about sports betting.

 

[Batman]

That's a correlated parlay. I doubt they will let you parlay that. Let me know if you get that through.

How do they determine that? Is it just a certain difference between the two? I've been able to bet the spread and the over for some games, but not others. Betting the first half spread and the final over is a no-go, but the final spread and final over usually seems to be fine.

 

[Chef2]

That's a correlated parlay. I doubt they will let you parlay that. Let me know if you get that through.

Online? No.
Your local bookie would do it.

 

[poindexter]

How do they determine that? Is it just a certain difference between the two? I've been able to bet the spread and the over for some games, but not others. Betting the first half spread and the final over is a no-go, but the final spread and final over usually seems to be fine.

I think there is a formula - if the side is too great a percentage of the total. Damn if I know what it is exactly.

I know I said on the board a few weeks back that I couldn't bet the Pats and the under when the Pats were playing a really ****ty team.

 

[Batman]

Games I love:
• Ohio State -51 @ Rutgers - Insane spread, but Ohio State is scoring at least 50 (maybe in the first half) and there's no way Rutgers scores more than 10. The better bet might be the first half spread. It'll probably be in the 30-35 range.

• Indiana +14 @ Penn State - Indiana's earlier bad performance at Ohio State scares me a little, but they seem to be a better team now than they were then. This line seems really high.

• UCLA +21 @ Utah - Similar to Indiana-Penn State, this seems way too high. UCLA has played well recently. Hell, at that spread this is a great game to take a small flyer on the money line.

• LSU -21 @ Ole Miss - I think LSU has proven it can cover almost any spread, and when I see them only giving 21 against a subpar, one-dimensional opponent I'm jumping on that like a sugar-infused 8-year-old jumping on a trampoline.

• Alabama -19 1/2 @ Mississippi State - This is in the same vein as LSU-Ole Miss. Mississippi State is much better at home than on the road, but still not very good. Alabama has too much to play for now to ease up and should crush this line.

• Florida -8 @ Missouri - Is Missouri in a death spiral? Are they saving Kelly Bryant for the lesser opponents they can beat? Either way, Florida should be at least 10 points better.

• Kentucky -8 1/2 at Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt has circled the drain. Kentucky isn't great, but I think they can cover this. Don't like this one as much as the other games, though.

 

[Batman]

I think there is a formula - if the side is too great a percentage of the total. Damn if I know what it is exactly.

I know I said on the board a few weeks back that I couldn't bet the Pats and the under when the Pats were playing a really ****ty team.

Well, you never know if you don't ask, right?
I'm just hoping the line doesn't get bet up too high by the time I get to it. I'd lay the points up to about 55. That would keep you safe with a 63-7 final. After that you're getting into dangerous territory.

 

[Cosmo]

Asking my question again from the other thread since we're talking betting again: Best online site to bet? Was looking at MyBookie.ag and they seem to get good reviews.

 

[TigerVols]

• Florida -8 @ Missouri - Is Missouri in a death spiral? Are they saving Kelly Bryant for the lesser opponents they can beat? Either way, Florida should be at least 10 points better.

Something along the line broke the team, broke the locker room, rumor says. Load up on the gators.

 

[playthrough]

I mean, if you take Ohio State at that number, you also almost certainly have to take the over, right? Rutgers scores one touchdown and it goes over with an OSU cover (59-7, for instance).

I've heard the strategy "Rover and the Over," i.e., underdog and over. Not as a parlay, but as two regular bets. The worst-case scenario of losing both doesn't happen as often as losing just one bet, in other words you're out the juice.

There was a weekend earlier this season in non-conference cupcake-land where I think seven games had huge spreads and relatively low totals to those spreads. The dog and over came in for every game but one.

 

[Chef2]

Something along the line broke the team, broke the locker room, rumor says. Load up on the gators.

Absolutely.
This should easily be a 19-20 point spread.
Missouri is Missawful.

Other tidbits include:

UCLA (+21) (under 54) @ Utah
Texas Tech (+1.5) (OVER 55) v TCU
LSU (-21) @ Ole Miss

 

[HappyCurmudgeon]

Mizzou has had a bad run, but the Tigers are 5-0 at home. Gators have played three games outside of Florida, close wins over Kentucky and South Carolina. Missouri has won last three against Florida I think.

I want to see where this line goes. Gators will win, but if it creeps to double digits and Bryant plays, I'll consider Mizzou.

 

[exmediahack]

That's a correlated parlay. I doubt they will let you parlay that. Let me know if you get that through.

William Hill and a few others do.

 

[tapintoamerica]

I mean, if you take Ohio State at that number, you also almost certainly have to take the over, right? Rutgers scores one touchdown and it goes over with an OSU cover (59-7, for instance).

Anything else would be like split-ticket voting.

 

[maumann]

Mizzou has had a bad run, but the Tigers are 5-0 at home. Gators have played three games outside of Florida, close wins over Kentucky and South Carolina. Missouri has won last three against Florida I think.

I want to see where this line goes. Gators will win, but if it creeps to double digits and Bryant plays, I'll consider Mizzou.

Watch the weather on this one. If it's snowy and cold, or rainy, the Gators have no running game to speak of.

 

[poindexter]

William Hill and a few others do.

Post a ticket if you have a side and total parlay on the Rutgers - OSU game.