Latest polling Democrat v. Republican scenarios

[Lugnuts]

I'm sure we all saw yesterday's WaPo stuff...

Mr. Lugs said he heard on XM's POTUS '08 about some other polls... sorry I don't have time to find it right now, but I'll try later...

Anyway, these polls said the following:

McCain v. Clinton = McCain landslide
McCain v. Obama = Obama landslide
Romney v. Clinton = Romney by 8 pts.
Romney v. Obama = Obama landslide

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I know it's just a poll, and polls change with the wind....

But folks, if you're a Democrat and you're voting this month, please think long and hard about what to do.

 

[jgmacg]

Polls as of Sunday, 6 pm, February 3, 2008:

Patriots v. Giants = Patriots landslide

 

[Football_Bat]

Poll as of Nov. 1, 1948:

Truman vs. Dewey: Dewey landslide

 

[Barsuk]

I know it has been said before, but polling data is more suspect than ever during this campaign, thanks in large part to cell phones. More and more people are abandoning land lines in favor of cell phones, which skews polling data collected by phone.

So take those polls with a grain of salt.

 

[Ben_Hecht]

Poll as of Nov. 1, 1948:

Truman vs. Dewey: Dewey landslide

Polls as of Labor Day, '48: Dewey landslide.

It looked so obvious . . . they curtailed polling.

You can look it up.

 

[Lugnuts]

Oh F you guys. ;D

 

[Ace]

I have read that polls are not good at all predicting for a black candidate. A lot more people say they will vote for a black candidate than actually pull the lever or press the button or whatever.

They just can't account for disconnect for what people say they will do and what they actually do. Call it racism or what have you.

 

[Lugnuts]

Yeah, yeah. That's a good point, Ace.

I'm sure the same is true for a woman.

Either way, that theory is going to be put to the test in the general.

 

[OTD]

I have read that polls are not good at all predicting for a black candidate. A lot more people say they will vote for a black candidate than actually pull the lever or press the button or whatever.

They just can't account for disconnect for what people say they will do and what they actually do. Call it racism or what have you.

It's called the Tom Bradley Effect. Bradley, the mayor of Los Angeles who happened to be black, ran for governor of California. All the polls (even the exit polls) had him way ahead of Republican George Deukmejian. Deukmejian won. Studies showed that many who said they'd vote for a black man couldn't do it once in the voting booth.

 

[Fudgie the Whale]

How many years ago was that?

Not saying everything's perfect now, but there has been huge changes just in the last 20 years.

 

[Ace]

How many years ago was that?

Not saying everything's perfect now, but there has been huge changes just in the last 20 years.

The story I read (by a pollster in the NY Times) was an explanation of why Hillary won the New Hampshire primary when the polls all had Obama way ahead.

That was something less than 20 years ago, as I seem to recall.

 

[dooley_womack1]

Yeah, even in an anonymous poll, people wanna put on their best face.

 

[jagtrader]

Clinton was way ahead in all the polls as recently as a week ago. So, either Obama is really closing the gap or it took voters a long time to decide to look politically correct.

I think there were a lot of factors in NH besides the Bradley effect. The Clinton tears. The debate pile on. The contrarian nature of the voting block. The fact that polling just isn't as reliable as in the past.

In SC, for example, Obama was getting 10 percent of the white vote in the polls and doubled it. He also won by 12-15 more points than expected.

 

[Ace]

Clinton was way ahead in all the polls as recently as a week ago. So, either Obama is really closing the gap or it took voters a long time to decide to look politically correct.

I think there were a lot of factors in NH besides the Bradley effect. The Clinton tears. The debate pile on. The contrarian nature of the voting block. The fact that polling just isn't as reliable as in the past.

In SC, for example, Obama was getting 10 percent of the white vote in the polls and doubled it. He also won by 12-15 more points than expected.

Getting 20 percent of the Democratic white vote doesn't exactly smell like a recipe for victory.

 

[Lugnuts]

I still think the main reason polls are flawed is the folks who take the time to participate phone polls are out of the ordinary.

 

[Chi City 81]

Clinton was way ahead in all the polls as recently as a week ago. So, either Obama is really closing the gap or it took voters a long time to decide to look politically correct.

I think there were a lot of factors in NH besides the Bradley effect. The Clinton tears. The debate pile on. The contrarian nature of the voting block. The fact that polling just isn't as reliable as in the past.

In SC, for example, Obama was getting 10 percent of the white vote in the polls and doubled it. He also won by 12-15 more points than expected.

Getting 20 percent of the Democratic white vote doesn't exactly smell like a recipe for victory.

Edwards took a fair chunk of that. His support has been breaking toward Obama, especially among white men.

 

[jagtrader]

Clinton was way ahead in all the polls as recently as a week ago. So, either Obama is really closing the gap or it took voters a long time to decide to look politically correct.

I think there were a lot of factors in NH besides the Bradley effect. The Clinton tears. The debate pile on. The contrarian nature of the voting block. The fact that polling just isn't as reliable as in the past.

In SC, for example, Obama was getting 10 percent of the white vote in the polls and doubled it. He also won by 12-15 more points than expected.

Getting 20 percent of the Democratic white vote doesn't exactly smell like a recipe for victory.

That was in one southern state. Polls show Obama's white support in the northern states is higher. The point was that the Bradley effect is overstated and SC shows that to be the case. The polls actually underestimated Obama's white support. How is that the Bradley effect?

 

[John]

I still think the main reason polls are flawed is the folks who take the time to participate phone polls are out of the ordinary.

Agreed. Between that and the fact that fewer and fewer people under 30 have land lines, as was mentioned earlier, I think that skews the results.