Kindle Fire just a flash in the pan?

[The Big Ragu]

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/04/was-amazons-kindle-fire-just-a-flash-in-the-pan/

Shipments fell from 4.8 million in Christmas quarter to less than 750,000 units last quarter, according to link above.

From something I read on Seeking Alpha, that took them from 17 percent of the tablet market in Q4 2011 to just 4 percent in Q1 2012. That other piece also argued (based on what a supplier of the e-Ink screens for the basic Kindle units told him--Amazon is not buying any) that with the Kindle Fire, Amazon basically killed its basic Kindle market, where it may not be selling much of anything. If he's right, Amazon's attempt to eat into Apple and Google's dominance bit the dust VERY quickly, and they may are probably not the player they were in the eReader market before they introduced the Fire.

For what it is worth, I like my Kindle Fire. I use it most as just an eReader for books, and read a lot on it now, with an occasional app and some basic web browsing thrown in when it's the closest thing to grab. When I bought it, though, my thinking was that I wanted an eReader smaller than the iPad, and if I was going to get one, I might as well spend the bit extra and get the one with basic tablet capabilities. I am wondering how many people bought it thinking it was more than what it is, and if so, if that is just not enough now with the crossover between devices?

 

[Bob Cook]

My wife tried using her iPad as an e-reader, but ended up getting a Nook, which I believe Microsoft now wants to convert to Kindle Fire II. She got the Nook because it was much lighter than an iPad, something she could just throw in her purse.

I understand the iPad success has put pressure on everyone to get into the tablet business, but for some, unless the tablet is as light and easy as an e-reader, there is a need and a place for a single-use device. Especially if it's relatively inexpensive.

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

Probably doesn't help them that there's a Kindle app you can download for free onto an iPad and other mobile devices.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

You mean they sold more over Christmas, when it was the most popular gift out there, than during the first quarter of the year?

Duh.

The only reason the iPad doesn't have the same dips is because they put out a new one every year or so.

I'm getting an iPad through work at the end of the summer, but I love my Kindle Fire.

 

[FootballScribe]

I have all Apple products for my technology with one exception: the Kindle Fire. And out of all that stuff, the iPod, the iPhone, my MacBook, the Kindle Fire is my favorite.

 

[Dyno]

If I hadn't gotten an iPad as a gift at Christmastime, I would almost certainly have bought a Fire. I do remember a good amount of Fire backlash when it came out. People seemed to think it was going to be the same as an iPad, only smaller and cheaper, and when it wasn't, they were pissed. I remember reading the comments on Amazon.com and there were a lot more negatives than I expected (this was around the time I fully expected I'd be buying one).

 

[Mizzougrad96]

I can't imagine being much happier than I am with mine.

I wish it had more memory, but all that means is you have to rotate things in and out. If I'm not working, I almost never use the laptop anymore.

 

[poindexter]

A week ago, the news was that helped Amazon blow out 1q earnings.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kindle-fire-helps-amazon-beat-224100670.html

I can't imagine ever getting more value for my $200 than I've received from my Fire.

 

[Brian]

Amazon forgot that part of Apple's success came from underselling the features of its products. Jobs sold really cool things and made simplistic things about them sound amazing. So when you found out you could hold it to the sky and see constellations, you were floored.

Amazon sold a really nice product, an ereader with a browser, as an alternative to an IPad. They didn't control expectations.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Is Amazon going to be all that upset if the Kindle Fire does fail? They're selling it for $199, which I believe leaves them little or no profit on the item itself. There's still a huge revenue stream for them as a content provider even if it's on another piece of hardware.

 

[LongTimeListener]

A week ago, the news was that helped Amazon blow out 1q earnings.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kindle-fire-helps-amazon-beat-224100670.html

I can't imagine ever getting more value for my $200 than I've received from my Fire.

And in January, the post-Christmas earnings report led to a 10 percent one-day drop in Amazon's stock price (since recovered, and then some). At that time, the too-low price of the Fire was cited as a factor.

Here's more on the Kindle Fire being a loss leader -- there was a report in November that Amazon spent $201 to build every Kindle Fire that was priced at $199. By contrast, Apple spent $326 on the iPad2 and sells it at $499.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2011/11/amazons-199-kindle-fire-costs-20170-to-build-report-says.html

They're probably going to make more money by promoting the Kindle App on the iPad or other tablets.

 

[93Devil]

How many of you that have the Fire have signed up for Amazon Prime?

 

[The Big Ragu]

You mean they sold more over Christmas, when it was the most popular gift out there, than during the first quarter of the year?

Duh.

The drop off is very significant-- 75 percent. Look at iPad sales. They have been fairly consistent. Sure, when a new one comes out, there is a boost. But they are dominating that market. Then, that Seeking Alpha thing I read was suggesting that Amazon may have cannibalized its own eReader market. They are not selling very many basic Kindles now, and not enough Kindle Fires to make up for the drop off there.

 

[The Big Ragu]

Probably doesn't help them that there's a Kindle app you can download for free onto an iPad and other mobile devices.

I'm not sure they see that as a negative. They were selling a couple of the basic Kindle readers below the cost of manufacturing and they only break even on the Kindle Fire.

The idea was that they wanted to link consumers to Amazon for their buying -- and that would be where they would make their money. If you have your Kindle App on your iPad, and you are buying Kindle books from Amazon, they are cashing in.

I think one small problem for them was that I got my Kindle Fire (I was reluctant to give up actual books, and hated reading on an iPad) without even realizing I could take out books from the library without ever getting up off my couch. I have been reading non-stop -- everything I could possibly want -- since then, and for free. Occasionally my name goes on a wait list, but it feels like just as I am finishing one book, I get e-mails telling me two others are ready for download.

 

[The Big Ragu]

How many of you that have the Fire have signed up for Amazon Prime?

I've got it. At first I thought it was worth it. Between the movies, the Kindle Owners Lending Library and the free two-day shipping, I figured it would more than pay for itself.

We have watched a few movies, but honestly I don't have a ton of time for it and their selection is so-so. Their lender's library kind of sucks, and now that I can get a ton of books I actually want to read via the library, I haven't even taken my free one book per month from Amazon. So it has basically come down to the two-day shipping (which very often actually comes overnight). I guess it will pay for itself, but I am also using two-day shipping for a lot of stuff I never would have otherwise needed it for.

 

[Moderator1]

Had I known I'd be getting an iPad, I never would have bought my Kindle. I have a Nook app and plenty of NookBooks but no Nook. Reading on the iPad is just as easy to me as reading on the Kindle - and I suspect reading on the Kindle Fire is just fine, too.

I like a real book now and then, too, though I order a lot fewer of them.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

You mean they sold more over Christmas, when it was the most popular gift out there, than during the first quarter of the year?

Duh.

The drop off is very significant-- 75 percent. Look at iPad sales. They have been fairly consistent. Sure, when a new one comes out, there is a boost. But they are dominating that market. Then, that Seeking Alpha thing I read was suggesting that Amazon may have cannibalized its own eReader market. They are not selling very many basic Kindles now, and not enough Kindle Fires to make up for the drop off there.

There was no way the Fire was going to be able to sustain the level that it did around Christmas last year. I'd be curious to know how many people have bought more than one iPad. I have friends who upgrade the second a new one comes out. The people buying the Fire either couldn't afford an iPad or were unwilling to pay the $600 or so that they cost.

The numbers don't surprise me at all. When something is the top-selling Christmas gadget, there's going to be a big dropoff. Sales will go up again next Christmas.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Had I known I'd be getting an iPad, I never would have bought my Kindle. I have a Nook app and plenty of NookBooks but no Nook. Reading on the iPad is just as easy to me as reading on the Kindle - and I suspect reading on the Kindle Fire is just fine, too.

I like a real book now and then, too, though I order a lot fewer of them.

I thought I was going to hate reading on my Kindle. What blows my mind is how I can check out library books for me, for my kids without leaving the house. I can have my 6-year-old pick out what book he wants, I download it for free in a matter of seconds and I read it to him.

 

[The Big Ragu]

Had I known I'd be getting an iPad, I never would have bought my Kindle. I have a Nook app and plenty of NookBooks but no Nook. Reading on the iPad is just as easy to me as reading on the Kindle - and I suspect reading on the Kindle Fire is just fine, too.

I like a real book now and then, too, though I order a lot fewer of them.

Biggest thing for me is the size difference. I couldn't get used to the iPad as a reader. I can stick the kindle fire (I have a neoprene sleeve for it) in my pocket (when I was still wearing a coat). I also find it much easier to hold for reading. And I also just feel safer carrying one around, like I am less of a target on the subway. If it gets beaten up a bit, I am not going to feel as bad.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

How many of you that have the Fire have signed up for Amazon Prime?

The only way Prime is worth it is if you order tons of stuff from Amazon to get the free two-day shipping. The movie catalog is pretty bad and you can only get one book a month.

My sister-in-law has it but she orders diapers and formula from Amazon.