Iowa primary predictions

[Bristol Insider]

Less than a month to go: Who wins Iowa and who drops out after the primary?

 

[Football_Bat]

I think it fair to say Obama and Huckabee win.

If Edwards finishes second, Hillary's suddenly looking at a Howard Dean collapse.

Saint Rudy of 9/11 is totally writing off Iowa, so it's between Huck and Mitt on the GOP side. Remember, Iowa is not a ballot system, and I think Huck has more grassroots support which will show up on caucus day.

I don't think anyone will drop out on either side until after New Hampshire since it's only a few days later.

 

[Jones]

I predict that the winners in Iowa, on both sides, won't get a sniff at the actual Presidency. It's all about NH.

And if Huckabee somehow wins the nomination, I'm moving to Cuba.

 

[Fenian_Bastard]

Caucus, dude. Not primary. Which is why predictifyin' is such a crapshoot.
I'll go long and say Edwards and the Mittster, by a nose over the Huck. Watching Rudy spin a fifth place finish will be the most fun, though.

 

[statrat]

Obama and Huckabee win Iowa, and if both come up with competitive finishes in New Hampshire, they can put themselves firmly in the driver's seat.

 

[Barsuk]

I predict that the winners in Iowa, on both sides, won't get a sniff at the actual Presidency. It's all about NH.

And if Huckabee somehow wins the nomination, I'm moving to Cuba.

To be quarantined? Do you have The AIDS, Jones?

 

[Jones]

No, but the idea of super-religious people in power scares the immunity system out of me.

 

[HejiraHenry]

The moment HRC loses in Iowa, all we'll hear is how the caucuses don't matter.

That's my prediction.

 

[Fenian_Bastard]

And shame on you if you believe it.
Anyway, my spies tell me that Obama's organized in every damn hamlet in the state.

 

[zeke12]

Obama and Romney are my picks. Huck is surging, but I don't think he'll close the deal, and I don't think he'll be a lot of people's second choice.

For the dems, the key is where those non-viable cacusers go for their second choice, and most spinning right now says that's a dead heat between the top three. Too close to call. Weather will be huge.

The University of Iowa dorms not being open is not good for Obama or Edwards.

 

[D-3 Fan]

And shame on you if you believe it.
Anyway, my spies tell me that Obama's organized in every damn hamlet in the state.

And you would be right. Ever since he stepped foot in state, dude's campaign staffers have covered this place like whipped cream on a sundae. Obama set up shop in the East Village area and every store and bar knows his people by their first names.

His minions are everywhere, whereas HRC and Edwards have hardly moved out of their offices in the Riverbend industrial park area north of downtown.

Huckabee has helped his cause by moving his HQ from West Des Moines to downtown. His Iowa point person, Eric Woolson, is a former Waterloo Courier political writer and a nice guy to shoot the breeze with.

I don't have a pick yet (we're dealing with an ice/snow storm blowing through here all day), but I have a suspicion that most Iowans will go with the safe picks or a mild surprise. Farmers, from what I've been hearing are leaning towards Edwards and Huckabee. Barack and HRC hasn't been very impressive with the rural folks.

 

[DanOregon]

I did notice FOX NEWS not touting Iowa or New Hampshire in their primary countdown but touting Super Tuesday as the "big" day. Probably because Rudy isn't expected to do much until then.

 

[zeke12]

I did notice FOX NEWS not touting Iowa or New Hampshire in their primary countdown but touting Super Tuesday as the "big" day. Probably because Rudy isn't expected to do much until then.

There is nothing sicker than Fox News and its open shilling for Rudy.

And it's going to cost them. Rudy don't play in the heartland.

 

[Armchair_QB]

I predict the guy who owns 801 Steak and Chop will be extremely pissed the caucuses were moved up a month.

 

[D-3 Fan]

I predict the guy who owns 801 Steak and Chop will be extremely pissed the caucuses were moved up a month.

I second that sentiment, Armchair.

The general managers of the Embassy Suites, Hotel Ft. Des Moines, The Savory, Mariott, the WDM Sheraton, the downtown Holiday Inn, and my friend who runs the Suites of 800 Grand are pissed off as well. Not to mention the Court Avenue district. :'(

Instead of raking in money on New Years and the caucuses, they have to either squeeze them together or cancel NYE parties, thanks to the ****ing dolts in Michigan, Florida, and the others who feel the need to force IA and NH to move it up to the 3rd. All of this just ruined my birthday on New Years Day.

 

[Gold]

I would predict Obama and Huckabee in Iowa.

However, Hillary is the only Democrat who can withstand not winning in Iowa and New Hampshire because she has a national organization and enough money to do well in the flood of primaries which follow immediately. If Hillary were to lose both states, she might slip somewhat in the polls but would you want to bet against her in the California primary, which is Feb. 5 and has a heckuva lot more delegates and votes.

I think Romney can afford to lose Iowa but he would have to beat Rudy Giuliani in New Hampshire. Barring a Howard Dean-like blowup, Romney has enough money to keep a campaign going.

Expecting a Hillary loss to trigger a Howard Dean moment is completely wrong. Hillary is the most disciplined candidate, and that is why she will be successful. It also is the reason you can get a feeling this woman would take a poll to see whether it would be better to eat cherry pie or apple pie.

I think Romney is the most disciplined of the GOP candidates. He may well lose some Republican primary battles, but I think he will win the war for the nomination. Giuliani is very likely to lose his temper and have some youtube classic moments. I think the Republicans who aren't from the extreme religious fringe will realize that he will be the best candidate, and those evangelical voters are going to finally, finally realize that they have been doing the dirty grunt work for the big-money interests who really run the GOP.

 

[bostonbred]

Obama and Huckabee are my predictions for Iowa. Hillary and Romney are my predictions for New Hampshire.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

As I said on another thread, I'll never be able to understand why the Evangelical Christians in Iowa, the ultra-conservatives in New Hampshire and the racist rednecks in South Carolina get to play such a huge role in who becomes the president.

Obviously I'm stereotyping, but Iowa was where Pat Robertson had such a great showing a few elections back. New Hampshire was where Pat Buchanan almost beat an incumbent president in 1992 and South Carolina was where McCain's 2000 run ended because they thought he had a black child...

 

[TrooperBari]

My prediction?

Pain.[/-1 obvious]

 

[Philosopher]

Edwards will win on the Democratic side. I think Obama will deflate there. His one-on-one skills aren't strong, and polls overstate the level of his support. Only a small fraction of voters actually show up to the caucus, and Edwards will have those.

I suppose Huckabee will win on the Republican side, but I expect Romney to do well. If he doesn't win or at least come close, he should drop out, after all the money he's spent there.