Iowa Caucus Running Thread

[Alma]

My analysis:

It's Obama's to lose now. Watch. This will galvanize all those folks, especially in Michigan, who didn't give a **** because they figured it'd be Hilary. I've already heard from a few of them tonight, blue collar people who have sat home for two election cycles, or just trudged out for the general election.

And John McCain is the true big winner on the Republican side. Once Romney the tool is out of the election - and that'll be by Wednesday of next week - he's the guy the Republican machine will choose to coddle. They want no part of Huckabee, and, mark my words, Rudy simply will not win the nomination. He's psycho, they know it, they don't want another Nixon.

 

[Chi City 81]

Sounded like 200K at the R's as well.

Not even close, actually.

With 76 percent of Republican vote reporting, it's about 90,000.

 

[Jones]

Mr. *******, here's what I think happens now in NH: Huckabee steals some of Romney's support, and McCain comes up the middle -- if you were voting for McCain, you're not suddenly voting for Huckabee. They're too different. But I think the line is fuzzier between Romney and Huckabee. I think tonight's mortally wounded Romney.

I mean, I just talked to a former McCain staffer: "Huge victory for John tonight." I know he might be biased -- although he left the McCain campaign -- but I really think NH is a cinch now.

I also just got an email saying that Thompson might drop out tomorrow -- even better for McCain.

 

[Jones]

I think Edwards is a goof, but he's giving a good speech right now.

 

[Chi City 81]

I think Edwards is a goof, but he's giving a good speech right now.

I think he sounds pretty damned pompous.

 

[Alma]

Fenian,

McCain expected to finish fourth, and by a larger margin than he did. He spent virtually no time in Iowa.

Yeah, he does have to win NH, and he will. Romney was his primary foe up there, and he's dead. Dead. He's a remarkable tool, and now everybody knows it.

Huckabee will finish fourth in NH. Rudy will get a higher nod.

I'll give it to Rudy - he's played this nicely. He didn't have to run for one second against Mitt Romney after their immigration spat in the debates. I think that's when Rudy realized Romney's a ****ing tool who'd kill his own chances and wanted no part of that smarmy asshole crawling up his crack with weird pseudo-negative ads. Instead, Huckabee got the virus, and eventually it will doom him.

 

[Alma]

Mr. *******, here's what I think happens now in NH: Huckabee steals some of Romney's support, and McCain comes up the middle -- if you were voting for McCain, you're not suddenly voting for Huckabee. They're too different. But I think the line is fuzzier between Romney and Huckabee. I think tonight's mortally wounded Romney.

I mean, I just talked to a former McCain staffer: "Huge victory for John tonight." I know he might be biased -- although he left the McCain campaign -- but I really think NH is a cinch now.

I also just got an email saying that Thompson might drop out tomorrow -- even better for McCain.

Jones,

Thompson's out and he'll dump everything behind McCain. He'll stump for McCain, I believe.

If Fred goes anywhere else, he may die. He might actually literally die.

 

[EStreetJoe]

Could someone explain these results on the CNN website to me:
Edwards is in second with 716 state delegates and 12 pledged delegates
Hillary is in third with 704 state delegates, but 13 pledged delegates (which would put her in second, 1 pledged delegate behind Obama who is 194 state delegates ahead).

 

[EStreetJoe]

Mr. *******, here's what I think happens now in NH: Huckabee steals some of Romney's support, and McCain comes up the middle -- if you were voting for McCain, you're not suddenly voting for Huckabee. They're too different. But I think the line is fuzzier between Romney and Huckabee. I think tonight's mortally wounded Romney.

I mean, I just talked to a former McCain staffer: "Huge victory for John tonight." I know he might be biased -- although he left the McCain campaign -- but I really think NH is a cinch now.

I also just got an email saying that Thompson might drop out tomorrow -- even better for McCain.

Jones,

Thompson's out and he'll dump everything behind McCain. He'll stump for McCain, I believe.

If Fred goes anywhere else, he may die. He might actually literally die.

Quick.. pick him in a death pool. :

 

[Fenian_Bastard]

Tonight's big loser....

 

[Chi City 81]

This is not at all the speech I was expecting from HRC. Very conciliatory start.

 

[Hammer Pants]

I think Edwards is a goof, but he's giving a good speech right now.

I think he sounds pretty damned pompous.

I agree. Edwards just looks so damn fake, even more than most politicians. He just looks like he's speaking for a group of people he has never and will never be a part of ... maybe I'm wrong.

 

[Jones]

Please don't get me wrong guys. I've seen Edwards up close and I'm still showering to cleanse myself. I just thought he sounded pretty fiery there, and I think that's the tone he needed.

 

[Chi City 81]

Again, not at all the tone I was expecting from HRC. I actually enjoyed her speech. Ew.

 

[Fenian_Bastard]

The McCain love among the national press corps is nothing short of stunning. Hillary's almost mortally wounded because she finished in a de facto tie for second. Romney's toast because he finished second to a guy whose GOTV operation was uniquely suited to this process and this particular electorate. But McCain, the most visible Republican of all, an American Hero, goes life and death with Fred Thompson, whose campaign flatlined a month ago and it's the best damned thing that ever happened anywhere. I remain amazed.

 

[Alma]

What'd you expect from HRC? Bill's standing right there. He knows how to play those moments.

 

[Chi City 81]

Chuck Norris is standing behind Huck.

 

[Jones]

Chris Dodd, we hardly knew you.

 

[Flying Headbutt]

Fenian, my ONLY guess is that he did well despite having nothing that the typical Iowa GOPer wants in a candidate. I also think it's an awful lot of spin to say this is a good thing that he ties with a dead guy. But you could also say this allows him to tread water going into the state he's expected to do well in.

 

[Jones]

The press likes John McCain because he's fun to cover. It's really pretty simple. You spend some time in his company, and you're hard pressed to say something bad about him.