Interesting Joe Posnanski Question

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From Joe Posnanski's blog "Question for you: What has a better chance of happening?"

  • Tiger Woods breaks Jack Nicklaus’ major record.

    Votes: 11 32.4%
  • Alex Rodriguez breaks Barry Bonds’ home run record.

    Votes: 9 26.5%
  • Both

    Votes: 4 11.8%
  • Neither

    Votes: 4 11.8%
  • Mini Ditka

    Votes: 6 17.6%

  • Total voters
    34
Joined
Mar 28, 2006
Messages
8,068
Saw this question buried in Joe's blog and I was curious what the reaction would be here.

(Of course Joe neglected Mini Ditka but nobody is perfect.)
 
I eliminated both or neither because choosing between the two is the more interesting question to me.

It's Rodriguez, because you can hit home runs 162 days in a season but can only win a major on four days. Oversimplification? Of course it is.
 
I'd say A-Rod.

I think Tiger is done for the time being. Of course he could prove me very wrong in a few months.
 
A-Rod is toast. Woods just needs 16 good days. Neither is likely.
 
Statistically speaking, I'd go with A-Rod since he's trying to break a record that's been broken twice before since 1974, while Nicklaus' has held for, what, since 1980-something?
 
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I've never read Joe P's blog before that I can remember, but a friend told me to check out his post about snow days, so I did. Had to wade through endless drivel about putt putt golf before it hit on actual snow days.

Anyway...Tiger.
 
When I saw A-Rod, I thought it meant the single-season HR record of 73, not the career mark of 762 (that's it, right?).
 
A-Rod is 149 homers behind Bonds, and has hit either 30 or 35 home runs in four of the last five years. So figure it would take him nearly five years at that level of production to reach 763. He'll be 35 this season.

If he does it, it won't be by much. (I don't think he'll blow past 800 like a lot of folks were predicting a few years back).

Then again, he has seven years left on his contract, so maybe he'll hang around long enough to put some distance between himself and Bonds.
 

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