Gambling & Journalism

[TigerVols]

I haven't gambled since college; used to make some pretty good change then, though, betting SoCon football because back in the day me and a few buddies knew a helluva lot more about the teams than Vegas did.

I couldn't image trying to gamble today, what with all the built-in advantage the algorithms provide the saviest of bettors.

 

[Batman]

I haven't gambled since college; used to make some pretty good change then, though, betting SoCon football because back in the day me and a few buddies knew a helluva lot more about the teams than Vegas did.

I couldn't image trying to gamble today, what with all the built-in advantage the algorithms provide the saviest of bettors.

That's the beauty of sports betting, though. You're not playing against better players, like in poker. There aren't situations where it's impossible to win, like in blackjack or slots. When you bet sports, every game is a winner. You just have to figure out which side is the right one.

 

[The Big Ragu]

That's the beauty of sports betting, though. You're not playing against better players, like in poker. There aren't situations where it's impossible to win, like in blackjack or slots. When you bet sports, every game is a winner. You just have to figure out which side is the right one.

Dunno. If point spreads do a reasonable job of evening the field for both teams, that might not be any different than saying "When you flip a coin, every flip is a winner. ... as long as you pick the right side."

The only way sports gambling can possibly be a profitable enterprise is if there are spreads that don't even the field. And there you would need to give yourself at least a 2 to 3 percent edge to just break even, because of the vig.

That very well may be the case about there being inefficient spreads. ... no market is priced with perfect efficiency up to the moment (for a variety of reasons), but then the problem is how do you as an individual find the spreads that offer value and bet them in a systematic way?

I would bet there are methodologies being used that give an edge of some sort. I am also quite sure that 99 percent of people trying to find inefficient spreads, in a discretionary, non-systematic way, may as well be flipping coins -- actually, worse because of the vig, which makes it worse than a 50/50 proposition. Even if anyone has had any amount of success at it over any period of time, it's almost certainly luck (1 person who has been profitable, versus a multiple of people who have lost money).

 

[MileHigh]

It was closer than expected, but Colorado just voted to allow sports gambling starting in May. In-person or via an app. That's the 19th state to legalize it.

 

[Huggy]

My brother is a pretty serious horse player, doesn't do it for a living or blow every dime he has at the track like our old man did but man, he works at it. Records the local track's races off TV, familiarized himself with horse anatomy so he could understand how injuries impact performance, makes notes of horses he is following, exchanges notes with other handicappers, reads the ink off the Racing Form, scours websites and Twitter feeds for info and there are days when he just gets clobbered at the track. Other days he does well or breaks even.

 

[Dog8Cats]

I love reading stories about people making a fortune gambling, like the MIT blackjack crews or the group that made a **** ton betting on horse racing in Asia. Somebody once mentioned to me that a guy made money betting the unders on NBA half time scores because the sportsbooks set the total O/U and simply divided it by two to get a half time number. I cannot find a record of this. From what I recall the guy is somewhat famous in gambling.

I heard the converse of that ... that the guy bet overs on the second half when each half's total was one-half of the full game's total. With fouling and constant clock-stoppages, the second-half over was easier to achieve.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Dunno. If point spreads do a reasonable job of evening the field for both teams, that might not be any different than saying "When you flip a coin, every flip is a winner. ... as long as you pick the right side."

The only way sports gambling can possibly be a profitable enterprise is if there are spreads that don't even the field. And there you would need to give yourself at least a 2 to 3 percent edge to just break even, because of the vig.

That very well may be the case about there being inefficient spreads. ... no market is priced with perfect efficiency up to the moment (for a variety of reasons), but then the problem is how do you as an individual find the spreads that offer value and bet them in a systematic way?

I would bet there are methodologies being used that give an edge of some sort. I am also quite sure that 99 percent of people trying to find inefficient spreads, in a discretionary, non-systematic way, may as well be flipping coins -- actually, worse because of the vig, which makes it worse than a 50/50 proposition. Even if anyone has had any amount of success at it over any period of time, it's almost certainly luck (1 person who has been profitable, versus a multiple of people who have lost money).

I imagine being a successful sports better is like being any other kind of successful gambler. It's more work than real work. Early in my career, the Phoenix sent me to a blackjack card counting course. Guy's business card said his name (clearly not real) and said he was the Silver Fox. Made it past the first cut of the basic strategy stuff and advanced to the group where he taught us not just card counting, but how not to get spotted by casinos while doing same. Even at the tender age of 30, I knew he was looking for recruits. At the end I told him, "man my job is way easier than yours." He was very disappointed in me. Sometimes, not often, I wonder what it would've been like to join his crew.

 

[justgladtobehere]

I heard the converse of that ... that the guy bet overs on the second half when each half's total was one-half of the full game's total. With fouling and constant clock-stoppages, the second-half over was easier to achieve.

Your description makes more sense. Seems to be the better angle. The strategy rested on the fact that the O/U betting lines didn't account for the differences in scoring in each half.

 

[Danwriter]

It is amazing though how many journalism/writing opportunities have risen from the increased legalization of gambling. It's not unlike fantasy sports a generation ago, many people want to find some kind of informed opinion if they're going to dive in. And all the regulatory issues have created a need for reporting that wasn't necessary even five years ago.

+1. Much of my work is covering broadcast and venue sports technology, and the court's ruling has opened the floodgates on casino sports books. There's a war on now to see who can put in the biggest LED screens.

 

[Danwriter]

I can quit anytime.

 

[justgladtobehere]

It is amazing though how many journalism/writing opportunities have risen from the increased legalization of gambling. It's not unlike fantasy sports a generation ago, many people want to find some kind of informed opinion if they're going to dive in. And all the regulatory issues have created a need for reporting that wasn't necessary even five years ago.

Are there any estimates as to how much the states legalizing sports gambling has increased the sports gambling? Interesting to know how many new players there are. The demand for the gambling programming could have been there all along and companies missed out on an opportunity because of some policy that never really made sense.

 

[poindexter]

My buddy was watching the Daily Wager on ESPN and he texted me that they said their guys were 14-23 for Best Bets on the season, as of last friday.

 

[playthrough]

Are there any estimates as to how much the states legalizing sports gambling has increased the sports gambling? Interesting to know how many new players there are. The demand for the gambling programming could have been there all along and companies missed out on an opportunity because of some policy that never really made sense.

Great question. In my anecdotal experience (i.e., going to the new books here in their first few days), there might not necessarily be a lot of people who have never placed a bet before in their lives -- they maybe once had "a guy" or went to Vegas -- but they'll be regulars now that it's under their noses and easy. Convenience is king.

 

[Lugnuts]

Great question. In my anecdotal experience (i.e., going to the new books here in their first few days), there might not necessarily be a lot of people who have never placed a bet before in their lives -- they maybe once had "a guy" or went to Vegas -- but they'll be regulars now that it's under their noses and easy. Convenience is king.

True that. I’m seeing that the laws in every state are different, and GPS tracking is used to ensure that if you’re gambling on your mobile device, you are in a state that allows that.

Interestingly, as I learned on a recent trip to Vegas, placing a mobile bet in Nevada ain’t so easy— they want you physically in the casinos. Who knew!

 

[playthrough]

True that. I’m seeing that the laws in every state are different, and GPS tracking is used to ensure that if you’re gambling on your mobile device, you are in a state that allows that.

Interestingly, as I learned on a recent trip to Vegas, placing a mobile bet in Nevada ain’t so easy— they want you physically in the casinos. Who knew!

I hear the wiseguys from Vegas always making fun of the folks in long betting lines on the weekends, telling them to just bet on the apps. But do they not work so well outside the buildings?

 

[MileHigh]

Will be interesting here in Colorado because you do not have to make a physical appearance in one of the three gambling towns that allows it and will only be allowed to offer sports gambling to place a bet once it starts in May, that you can do it on an app. Don't know how they roll it out but I'm super intrigued and excited for it.

 

[MileHigh]

Also, enlighten me on the apps because I don't have any of them (yet). How does it start? Do you use a credit card? You can't buy lottery tickets with lottery or debit cards so I can't imagine you can use them to lay down bets. I do know

Also, Smarkets out of the U.K. has entered into a contract with Full House Resorts to offer online sports betting in Colorado in anticipation of the recently passed vote. Don't know anything about them.

 

[exmediahack]

Betting on the phone is incredibly easy, depending on the interface. The challenge comes with the in-game betting as the lines change constantly and, during the transition, they get "suspended" (red font) and you can't get in.

Also, the casinos' live betting runs about 10 seconds ahead of the TV broadcast.

For example, you'll see Oregon State +11.5 at USC. OSU has the ball at 3rd and 14.

Then it drops to Oregon State +7.5.... and. all of a sudden, on the broadcast, Oregon State scores a long TD.

It's trippy to watch.

 

[playthrough]

Also, enlighten me on the apps because I don't have any of them (yet). How does it start? Do you use a credit card? You can't buy lottery tickets with lottery or debit cards so I can't imagine you can use them to lay down bets. I do know

Also, Smarkets out of the U.K. has entered into a contract with Full House Resorts to offer online sports betting in Colorado in anticipation of the recently passed vote. Don't know anything about them.

In my state, I used a PayPal account on the app. Easy in and -- this isn't always the case with apps -- easy out, with no fees.

 

[MileHigh]

Thanks. Very helpful. And like I said, I'll be curious how this all rolls out. Starts May 1 here.