Future 3000 hit club

[Gehrig]

Alright, guys. I finally had the balls to create a new thread. Please don't shoot me ;D.


I made a chart of the top 100 active players in career hits, comparing them by age to each other and to the current members of the 3000 Hit Club. The players are sorted first by age at which they reached 1000 hits, then 2000 hits, then 3000 hits. Cap Anson is listed twice, the first time including his NA hits and the second time excluding them. The only player here with under 1000 hits is Prince Fielder, who is 4 shy of the mark. What do you think?

So, based on their ages and rate of hit collection, I'd say that the active players with at least 1500 hits who have the best chances of reaching 3000 (besides the obvious A-Rod) are Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Crawford, Beltre, Vlad, Pierre, and Rollins. Damon is likely to get there one way or the other. Michael Young and Renteria look like they have an outside shot at it, though the latter is slowing down. Chipper also might make it, but given his age, I doubt it. Of course, Pudge and Vizquel are the closest to 3000 among active players; unfortunately, I don't think they have enough left in them to make it. A few years ago, Andruw Jones was on pace for the magic number, but he's already petering out and won't make it, IMO. I'm rooting for Ichiro -- even with his age and late start working against him, I expect him to hang on past 40 to get 3000.

 

[Gehrig]

Unfortunately, the picture is to small. This might be a stupid question, but is there a way to add attachments so everyone can see my chart?

 

[CarltonBanks]

I think Vizquel will make it. He still has some talent and, defensively, is still above-average at third. He can't play SS anymore (he can, but not competently) but can hold his own at third. He has a couple of years left in him.

 

[Cubbiebum]

Unfortunately, the picture is to small. This might be a stupid question, but is there a way to add attachments so everyone can see my chart?

upload the photo a image hosting website and then provide a link

 

[MankyJimy]

Looking at the candidates, I really can't avoid the conclusion that Jeter might be the last 3000 hit club member for a long, long time.

I don't see any of the active players hanging on long enough to get there.

 

[deviljets7]

Looking at the candidates, I really can't avoid the conclusion that Jeter might be the last 3000 hit club member for a long, long time.

I don't see any of the active players hanging on long enough to get there.

Ummm. you really don't see ARod getting the 225 hits needed over the next 6 years of his contract? Between him, Damon, Pudge and Vizquel I'd be stunned if there wasn't at least 1 guy who reaches 3,000 before Jeter's massively overpaid contract expires.

 

[Gehrig]

Looking at the candidates, I really can't avoid the conclusion that Jeter might be the last 3000 hit club member for a long, long time.

I don't see any of the active players hanging on long enough to get there.

 

[Gehrig]

Alright, I think I was able to make it work. Hopefully you guys can see the chart.

 

[Football_Bat]

Michael Young should get there. He's only 34 and has about 2,100 hits, and should keep racking up 200 hits a year in the role the Rangers have him in. (He sure has been stinking it up in the ALCS, though.)

The closer a player gets to 3,000, the longer he's going to hang on to try to get there. So candidates are pretty easy to identify based on age, average hits per season and number of hits accrued already. Of course, that doesn't mean those players are locks to get there at all.

 

[Football_Bat]

I should've mentioned Beltre too. He's practically neck-and-neck with Young in career hits and is 2 1/2 years younger.

 

[Gehrig]

Here's an interesting look at what Ichiro might of done if he came in the Majors at an earlier age.

Source: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/zips_record_watch_ichiro_suzuki/

This analysis of Ichiro is interesting. If the translations are accurate, his total hit count on the Mariners from 1992-2000 (1275) would have been almost the same as his actual NPB count (1278). Of course, his average is worse in MLB, dropping from 0.353 to (a still quite respectable) 0.322, because his total AB rose from 3619 to 3957. Part of this is obviously due to the longer seasons in MLB than in NPB, but I'm guessing the difference in BA is primarily due to the translations' treatment of the NPB as a lower caliber league than MLB.

 

[93Devil]

By percentages...

99 percent chance of getting 3,000 - Arod

70 percent - Omar Vizquel, Damon

60 percent - Pujols, Cabrera

50 percent - Chipper

30 percent - Vlad, Cano, Beltre, Pudge

20 percent - Pedroia, Braun

10 percent - Crawford, Reyes, Ichiro, Wright

5 percent - Castro, Melky, Kemp,

 

[Dick Whitman]

I would absolutely love to see Juan Pierre get there or at least challenge it for no other reason than to see Baseball Think Factory's head explode when columnists begin earnestly discussing his Hall of Fame credentials at 3,000 hits and an ungodly number of stolen bases.

 

[Sea Bass]

I absolutely cannot believe Omar Vizquel is that close to 3000.

 

[93Devil]

I absolutely cannot believe Omar Vizquel is that close to 3000.

Beltre having a legit chance suprised me.

 

[Shaggy]

I've never thought anyone who is only halfway there is a lock.

But Miguel Cabrera is a lock.

The quirky thing is, Miggy has never had a 200-hit season. But his eight full seasons in the majors have produced hit totals of 198, 198, 197, 195, 188, 180, 180 and 177.

 

[Bob Cook]

By percentages...

99 percent chance of getting 3,000 - Arod

70 percent - Omar Vizquel, Damon

60 percent - Pujols, Cabrera

50 percent - Chipper

30 percent - Vlad, Cano, Beltre, Pudge

20 percent - Pedroia, Braun

10 percent - Crawford, Reyes, Ichiro, Wright

5 percent - Castro, Melky, Kemp,

Damon has a much better chance than Vizquel. Vizquel is about 150 hits, but he's 44 and doesn't play regularly. He's going to have play as long as Julio Franco to have a shot. But if Damon has merely two more years like 2011, he'll make it to 3,000. And Damon is only 37.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/damonjo01.shtml

 

[Gehrig]

Here are the players with the best shot at 3000. They are all active players with 1500-2999 career hits and with more hits at their current age than at least one of the members of the 3000 Hit Club at the same age (excluding Anson, who is a big outlier).

Above the median:

• Alex Rodriguez: 35, 2775, more than everyone except Cobb, Aaron, Yount, Speaker, Musial
• Albert Pujols: 31, 2073, more than everyone except Cobb, Aaron, Yount, Kaline
• Adrian Beltre: 32, 2033, more than everyone except Cobb, Aaron, Yount, Clemente, Speaker, Kaline, Musial, Rose, Jeter, Ripken, Carew, Waner, Mays (tied)
• Carl Crawford: 29, 1609, more than everyone except Cobb, Aaron, Yount, Kaline, Speaker, Clemente, Musial
• Miguel Cabrera: 28, 1597, more than everyone except Cobb, Yount, Aaron, Kaline

Below the median:

• Ivan Rodriguez: 39, 2844, more than Boggs, Biggio, Winfield, Henderson
• Johnny Damon: 37, 2723, more than Brett, Brock, Molitor, Wagner, Palmeiro, Boggs, Biggio, Henderson, Winfield
• Vladimir Guerrero: 36, 2590, more than Lajoie, Gwynn, Yastrzemski, Brock, Brett, Molitor, Palmeiro, Wagner, Winfield, Boggs, Henderson, Biggio
• Ichiro Suzuki: 37, 2428, more than Winfield
• Edgar Renteria: 34, 2327, more than Yastrzemski, Lajoie, Brett, Gwynn, Brock, Palmeiro, Henderson, Wagner, Boggs, Molitor, Winfield, Biggio
• Michael Young: 34, 2061, more than Biggio
• Juan Pierre: 33, 2020, more than Brock, Henderson, Palmeiro, Boggs, Winfield, Wagner, Molitor, Biggio
• Jimmy Rollins: 32, 1866, more than Gwynn, Brock, Palmeiro, Boggs, Winfield, Wagner, Molitor, Biggio

 

[qtlaw]

IMHO Ichiro has already had a HOF career, the seamless transition was mind-boggling. For him to get 3000 would be phenomenal.

Hard to fathom that Ivan and Damon are so close, especially I-Rod.

Beltre has a shot, better than I thought.

He and Damon getting it would make them in my eyes the Sutton of the 3000 club; never really viewed as the best but how do you ignore the numbers? Well Beltre has had a few tremendous seasons (contract years).

 

[93Devil]

It's all about getting hits before you are 23.

Beltre just finished his 14th ML season and he is 32.