Fantasy Baseball 2019 running thread

[bigpern23]

Who's still playing?

Keepers are due tonight in one league. We keep six and five of mine are set with Acuna, Albies, Torres, Severino and Buehler. Trying to decide between Hader and Profar for the final slot. Profar would be a 25th-rounder, Hader a 13th-rounder. Our league has SV+H, so Hader's value is higher than in saves-only leagues.

I'm leaning toward Profar because of his versatility and value at 25th round, but Hader is an elite reliever. I just don't usually keep relievers.

 

[Huggy]

Still playing here, was in three leagues last year including one on here

 

[outofplace]

I'm still in at least two, plus I need to bump the thread from the league on here to see who's still in.

I actually just finished a slow auction in one league. Now we fill in our reserves with an email draft. The team I took over last year was crap, but I think I'm making a little progress. Fixing a bad team is not easy in a 15-team league that allows each squad to hold on to 5 minor league players each year.

Here is my major-league roster so far. I will draft 8 reserves. The keepers are in bold.
C Sanchez Gary NYY $16
C Gomes Yan WAS $5
1B Bell Josh PIT $11
2B Gennett Scooter CIN $16
SS Crawford Brandon SF $1
3B Moncada Yoan CWS $15
CI Freeman Freddie ATL $51
MI Cabrera Asdrubal TEX $9
OF Meadows Austin TB $4
OF Nimmo Brandon NYM $11
OF Ozuna Marcell STL $25
OF Mancini Trey BAL $4
OF Piscotty Stephen OAK $11
UT Choo Shin-Soo TEX $15
UT Cozart Zack LAA $3

P Clevinger Mike CLE $15
P Cole Gerrit HOU $28
P Foltynewicz Mike ATL $11
P Rodriguez Eduardo BOS $9
P Newcomb Sean ATL $3
P Chacin Jhoulys MIL $2
P Knebel Corey MIL $10
P Colome Alex CWS $6
P Peacock Brad HOU $4
P Hader Josh MIL $13

The minor leaguers I kept.
Yordan Alvarez $3
Carter Kieboom $1
Luis Urias $1
Dylan Cease $3
Mitch Keller $1

Choo went for too much, but I had money left and he was the best of what I could afford. I'm hoping to add one more top prospect in the draft because Urias is likely to open in the majors. I doubt I can win with this, but finishing in the top half of the league would be nice progress.

 

[bigpern23]

OK, so I won a keeper league last year and now have to decide on three guys to keep. 1 IF, 1 OF and 1 P. Help me out here, folks:

Ronald Acuña Jr.
Miguel Andújar
Cody Bellinger
Alex Bregman
Anthony Rizzo
Juan Soto
Gleyber Torres
Trea Turner
Max Muncy


Pitching
Walker Buehler
Gerrit Cole
Luis Severino
Blake Snell

I'm leaning Acuna or Soto in the OF, Bregman IF and Cole SP. I can be convinced of just about any of these guys, though.

 

[outofplace]

I think Bregman is an easy call for your infield and Acuna is the better outfield option. The latter is a tough call with Soto, but Acuna was more highly regarded going into that and I thought his play held up better.

Regarding your pitchers, I think it depends on your format. I expect both Snell and Cole to regress a little, but their strengths should be similar to last season. Snell will get you better ratios. Cole will get you more innings and strikeouts. The wins could swing back Cole's way because he has a better team around him. I lean very slightly to Snell, but it really depends on the value of innings and/or strikeouts in your league.

I would definitely stay away from Severino. I was a little concerned about the drop-off even before finding out he was hurt and likely to miss all of April.

 

[bigpern23]

I think Bregman is an easy call for your infield and Acuna is the better outfield option. The latter is a tough call with Soto, but Acuna was more highly regarded going into that and I thought his play held up better.

Regarding your pitchers, I think it depends on your format. I expect both Snell and Cole to regress a little, but their strengths should be similar to last season. Snell will get you better ratios. Cole will get you more innings and strikeouts. The wins could swing back Cole's way because he has a better team around him. I lean very slightly to Snell, but it really depends on the value of innings and/or strikeouts in your league.

I would definitely stay away from Severino. I was a little concerned about the drop-off even before finding out he was hurt and likely to miss all of April.

Pitching categories are W, L, SV, K, ERA and WHIP. Snell was better last year in ERA and WHIP, but Cole's FIP, xFIP, BABIP and SIERA suggest he should have been better than Snell in those categories on the whole. Snell won 21 games, compared to 15 for Cole, which could very well happen again - or not.

Both made significant jumps in K/9. Snell's ground ball ratio was far better and Cole's flyball ratio was up. In that ballpark, a high flyball ratio is worrisome.

As I type this, I'm leaning more toward Snell, but I don't freakin' know.

 

[outofplace]

Pitching categories are W, L, SV, K, ERA and WHIP. Snell was better last year in ERA and WHIP, but Cole's FIP, xFIP, BABIP and SIERA suggest he should have been better than Snell in those categories on the whole. Snell won 21 games, compared to 15 for Cole, which could very well happen again - or not.

Both made significant jumps in K/9. Snell's ground ball ratio was far better and Cole's flyball ratio was up. In that ballpark, a high flyball ratio is worrisome.

As I type this, I'm leaning more toward Snell, but I don't freakin' know.

It's a very tough call, but I agree with your lean.

 

[Guy_Incognito]

I have a league with 10 keepers. I'm pretty sure what to do, but open for advice.

*Gary Sánchez NYY - C
*Rhys Hoskins Phi - 1B,OF
Robinson Canó NYM - 1B,2B
*Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS
*Jean Segura Phi - SS
Kyle Schwarber ChC - OF
*Starling Marte Pit - OF
Franmil Reyes SD - OF
*Jesús Aguilar Mil - 1B
Trey Mancini Bal - 1B,OF
Andrew McCutchen Phi - OF
Miguel Andújar NYY - 3B
Adam Eaton Was - OF
Sergio Romo Mia - SP,RP
Eric Skoglund KC - SP
Roberto Osuna Hou - RP
Zack Britton NYY - RP
José Leclerc Tex - RP
Dylan Covey CWS - SP,RP
Rich Hill LAD - SP
*Max Scherzer Was - SP
Sean Doolittle Was - RP
Robert Gsellman NYM - RP
Dereck Rodríguez SF - SP
Kyle Freeland Col - SP
*Jacob deGrom NYM - SP
German Márquez Col - SP
Reynaldo López CWS - SP
*Luis Severino NYY - SP
*Trevor Bauer Cle - SP
Jorge Soler KC - OF

The stars are the ones I'm planning to keep. It hurts to give up Andujar, but I think I have to.
EDIT- I guess I could keep Andujar, or maybe even Osuna for Sanchez. What do you think?

 

[bigpern23]

I have a league with 10 keepers. I'm pretty sure what to do, but open for advice.

*Gary Sánchez NYY - C
*Rhys Hoskins Phi - 1B,OF
Robinson Canó NYM - 1B,2B
*Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS
*Jean Segura Phi - SS
Kyle Schwarber ChC - OF
*Starling Marte Pit - OF
Franmil Reyes SD - OF
*Jesús Aguilar Mil - 1B
Trey Mancini Bal - 1B,OF
Andrew McCutchen Phi - OF
Miguel Andújar NYY - 3B
Adam Eaton Was - OF
Sergio Romo Mia - SP,RP
Eric Skoglund KC - SP
Roberto Osuna Hou - RP
Zack Britton NYY - RP
José Leclerc Tex - RP
Dylan Covey CWS - SP,RP
Rich Hill LAD - SP
*Max Scherzer Was - SP
Sean Doolittle Was - RP
Robert Gsellman NYM - RP
Dereck Rodríguez SF - SP
Kyle Freeland Col - SP
*Jacob deGrom NYM - SP
German Márquez Col - SP
Reynaldo López CWS - SP
*Luis Severino NYY - SP
*Trevor Bauer Cle - SP
Jorge Soler KC - OF

The stars are the ones I'm planning to keep. It hurts to give up Andujar, but I think I have to.
EDIT- I guess I could keep Andujar, or maybe even Osuna for Sanchez. What do you think?

I'd keep Andujar over Marte in a minute. If you're worried about a logjam at 3B and SS with Segura and Bregman, I'd probably drop Segura and keep Andujar, unless you really need the steals.

I expect Sanchez to bounce back in a big way, and catcher is such a thin position, I wouldn't drop him in favor a reliever.

 

[Guy_Incognito]

Marte, interesting. Really? Not sure. I'm not going to keep Osuna, but Marte is hard to let go of.

 

[outofplace]

Marte, interesting. Really? Not sure. I'm not going to keep Osuna, but Marte is hard to let go of.

How many outfield spots do you have?

 

[bigpern23]

Marte, interesting. Really? Not sure. I'm not going to keep Osuna, but Marte is hard to let go of.

Similar K and BB rates, both probably .285-.300 BA, Marte is only slightly better for OBP, but Andujar's slugging sets him apart from Marte. Marte is 30, so I don't expect him to break out with sudden power at this point in career. I don't see anything that Marte does appreciably better than Andujar except for stealing bases and Andujar's ceiling appears much higher. Personally, I don't prioritize SBs, so I land on Andujar. If you need SBs, Marte or Segura are better for you.

 

[Guy_Incognito]

How many outfield spots do you have?

3.
Small lineup, huge bench in this league, so I don't mind that 4 of my keepers are pitchers.

 

[outofplace]

Similar K and BB rates, both probably .285-.300 BA, Marte is only slightly better for OBP, but Andujar's slugging sets him apart from Marte. Marte is 30, so I don't expect him to break out with sudden power at this point in career. I don't see anything that Marte does appreciably better than Andujar except for stealing bases and Andujar's ceiling appears much higher. Personally, I don't prioritize SBs, so I land on Andujar. If you need SBs, Marte or Segura are better for you.

The categories make a big difference. If it's a standard 5X5, those stolen bases are very valuable. Steals are becoming more rare. There were only 11 players in MLB last season with 30 stolen bases and Marte was seventh in the majors with 33. Nobody had more than 46. That means he can have a big impact in one of your five categories.

You also have to consider that some of the guys who stole 30 bases don't give you much else. I wouldn't want Billy Hamilton or Mallex Smith in my lineup, but Marte at least gives you something in other categories.

I get putting a low priority on steals, but players who are useful overall and give you 30-plus steals can be a great value in a 5X5.

 

[Guy_Incognito]

The categories make a big difference. If it's a standard 5X5, those stolen bases are very valuable. Steals are becoming more rare. There were only 11 players in MLB last season with 30 stolen bases and Marte was seventh in the majors with 33. Nobody had more than 46. That means he can have a big impact in one of your five categories.

You also have to consider that some of the guys who stole 30 bases don't give you much else. I wouldn't want Billy Hamilton or Mallex Smith in my lineup, but Marte at least gives you something in other categories.

I get putting a low priority on steals, but players who are useful overall and give you 30-plus steals can be a great value in a 5X5.

Right ,that's why I'm reluctant to let him go.
Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Walks (BB), Batting Average (AVG), On-base Percentage (OBP), Slugging Percentage (SLG)

 

[bigpern23]

Right ,that's why I'm reluctant to let him go.
Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Walks (BB), Batting Average (AVG), On-base Percentage (OBP), Slugging Percentage (SLG)

Looking at those categories, runs, walks, BA and OBP are going to basically be a wash, Andujar has the edge in HR, RBI and slugging, Marte has the edge in steals. I'd take the guy who will help more in three categories. Andujar is also significantly younger.

 

[outofplace]

Looking at those categories, runs, walks, BA and OBP are going to basically be a wash, Andujar has the edge in HR, RBI and slugging, Marte has the edge in steals. I'd take the guy who will help more in three categories. Andujar is also significantly younger.

That's why I brought up the scoring system, though the sample size on Andujar is a bit small to say that BA and OBP are clearly in his favor. Didn't you say OBP favored Marte in an earlier post? Andujar actually walks even less than Marte, which is tough to do. I am also concerned about playing time if he slumps. Wasn't Andujar benched in the playoffs because his defense is so bad? Marte's going to play even when he struggles offensively because he is an outstanding defender.

The size of the starting lineup also matters here. Does the league have a CI spot? Guy already has Bregman at third and Aguilar at first. Bregman has shortstop eligibily, but Guy looks to be keeping Segura there.

 

[bigpern23]

That's why I brought up the scoring system, though the sample size on Andujar is a bit small to say that BA and OBP are clearly in his favor. Didn't you say OBP favored Marte in an earlier post? Andujar actually walks even less than Marte, which is tough to do. I am also concerned about playing time if he slumps. Wasn't Andujar benched in the playoffs because his defense is so bad? Marte's going to play even when he struggles offensively because he is an outstanding defender.

The size of the starting lineup also matters here. Does the league have a CI spot? Guy already has Bregman at third and Aguilar at first. Bregman has shortstop eligibily, but Guy looks to be keeping Segura there.

No, I said OBP slightly favors Marte but Slugging is in Andujar’s favor. I also said BA is a wash, not that it favors Andujar. He batted .300 last season, but I expect we’ll see him settle in as a career .270-.285 hitter with 35-HR power.

His defense was bad, but he won’t likely get benched or sent down. He doesn’t strike out a lot, so he shouldn’t be prone to prolonged slumps. He’ll probably get replaced for defense late in games, but - like Marte - he got 600 ABs last year, so playing time isn’t an issue.

 

[Guy_Incognito]

That's why I brought up the scoring system, though the sample size on Andujar is a bit small to say that BA and OBP are clearly in his favor. Didn't you say OBP favored Marte in an earlier post? Andujar actually walks even less than Marte, which is tough to do. I am also concerned about playing time if he slumps. Wasn't Andujar benched in the playoffs because his defense is so bad? Marte's going to play even when he struggles offensively because he is an outstanding defender.

The size of the starting lineup also matters here. Does the league have a CI spot? Guy already has Bregman at third and Aguilar at first. Bregman has shortstop eligibily, but Guy looks to be keeping Segura there.

Only a regular starting 9 - no MI or CI. I'm leaning Segura, but am open to suggestions. Sounds like you would leave Andujar unprotected, no?

 

[outofplace]

Only a regular starting 9 - no MI or CI. I'm leaning Segura, but am open to suggestions. Sounds like you would leave Andujar unprotected, no?

With no CI, I'd keep Marte. You've already got Bregman at third and Aguilar at first. If you keep Bregman, Aguilar, Andujar and Segura, you'd have to leave one of those guys on the bench.

The other option could be to cut Segura loose, use Bregman at short and keep Andujar at third base.