E-Bola

[Neutral Corner]

Hundreds of people travel from city to city, thousands of miles apart, hundreds of times every day. A true pandemic would be horrendous, because people just don't think it could happen, especially to them.

It's a lovely subject for me to think on, because I know that if it ever happened primary care medical workers would become an endangered species almost literally overnight, as would their families. We'd have to decide whether to get up and go to work, knowing the risks, or to allow our patients (and friends and acquaintances) to die untended in their time of greatest need.

One isolated case in Dallas so far, and I devoutly hope it remains that way.

 

[YankeeFan]

That, and the fact that a disease can make it around the globe in a matter of hours.

Back to the 1918 bug, it was so powerful that it killed almost 40 million people around the world in a matter of eight or nine months. Think about that, and think about how much harder it was to get AROUND THE WORLD then as opposed to now.

If a 1918-style flu resurfaced today, I'd go as far as to say we could see 40 million deaths in a week, maybe two.

But we have much better medicine and preventative measures now. Why would you think it would be so deadly?

And, while not minimizing it, wouldn't it likely kill the old, the very young, and those who are already sick/already have a weakened immune system?

 

[MisterCreosote]

Even with all the measures we have today, flu still kills thousands and thousands every year in the U.S. The annual average is between 30,000-40,000 deaths.

H1N1 was so dangerous because it was killing healthy children and adolescents. Plus, flu vaccines require vigilance. The yearly vaccine contains specific strains of the virus, so most likely wouldn't offer protection against a new strain. That's what we saw in 2009 and why everyone had to get two shots instead of one.

There have also been strains that are resistant to Tamiflu or other antivirals. If that had been the case with H1N1, that would've been much, much worse.

You just never know for sure.

 

[Bob Cook]

That, and the fact that a disease can make it around the globe in a matter of hours.

Back to the 1918 bug, it was so powerful that it killed almost 40 million people around the world in a matter of eight or nine months. Think about that, and think about how much harder it was to get AROUND THE WORLD then as opposed to now.

If a 1918-style flu resurfaced today, I'd go as far as to say we could see 40 million deaths in a week, maybe two.

But we have much better medicine and preventative measures now. Why would you think it would be so deadly?

And, while not minimizing it, wouldn't it likely kill the old, the very young, and those who are already sick/already have a weakened immune system?

That's not always the case. When H1N1 broke out a few years ago, teens and young adults -- usually considered the least vulnerable -- were hardest-hit.

http://www.kidsgrowth.com/resources/articledetail.cfm?id=2564

Also, we have better medicines, but the viruses and diseases evolve, too, whether you believe in evolution or not. Also, antibiotic overuse has helped create bigger and badder bugs. And has been remarked, people eschewing vaccinations hurts, too.

 

[BTExpress]

For instance, what's the first thing that they do when they get someone with a fever and cough in the office?

Find out if and how they are going to pay the bill.

 

[Neutral Corner]

If a really bad strain got loose, you'd most likely see children and the elderly dying off first. Parents tending their children would begin to become infected. In a true pandemic, primary care medical workers would begin to become infected and sicken, some dying, and that work force would become depleted. You'd also see medical workers making the decision that their job is not worth their lives and possibly the lives of their families.

There is the potential for breakdown in the supply chain of needed medical supplies, whether in manufacturing or distribution. The need for quarantine areas may also prevent distribution.

A really bad one, a true pandemic, has not been seen in so long that we forget how bad they can potentially be. We know a lot more, but if a mutated version that didn't respond to treatment got loose, that wouldn't help all that much.

Wikipedia says that the 1918 flu infected 500 million people and killed from 50 to 100 million of them, 3 to 5% of the worlds population. Something on that scale... nobody is ready for that.

 

[Neutral Corner]

For instance, what's the first thing that they do when they get someone with a fever and cough in the office?

Find out if and how they are going to pay the bill.

They do that before you get in the door, but you can still cough and snot and sneeze in the lobby and spread it free of charge.

 

[YankeeFan]

Mark Segraves @SegravesNBC4 · 23m 23 minutes ago

Patient traveling from Nigeria admitted to Howard Univ Hospital in DC with possible Ebola symptoms.

 

[Iron_chet]

I think it is only a matter of time until all US carriers discontinue flights to some of the infected countries.

 

[YankeeFan]

While it's unclear if this is what happened with the patient in Dallas -- he already had a U.S. visa, and had quit his job -- and many in the infected countries are desperately poor, I think we have to realize that for people with the means, who realize they have been exposed to Ebola, their best chance at survival is to get to the United States.

The guy in Dallas took his friend to four different hospitals, only to see her get turned away from each one, and die within hours after returning home.

Her brother died only days later.

If this guy lives, it will only be because he reached our shores.

 

[da man]

I can't tell if you're being serious or not, but: It is not airborne.

Viruses mutate all the time. But never before in the history of the world has a virus mutation resulted in a change in its method of infection. Never.

It did in The Andromeda Strain.

Just sayin'.

 

[YankeeFan]

I think it is only a matter of time until all US carriers discontinue flights to some of the infected countries.

Nigeria has a couple of non-stop flights, but Liberia, Sierra Leone and the Central African Republic do not have any non-stops to the U.S.

The guy in Dallas traveled through Belgium. You'd have to deny boarding to passport holders from the infected countries, and I'm not sure they could get away with that.

If we keep issuing visas, we're going to have to hope the people working in foreign airports are vigilant about denying boarding to anyone with even flu-like symptoms.

 

[Iron_chet]

I think it is only a matter of time until all US carriers discontinue flights to some of the infected countries.

Nigeria has a couple of non-stop flights, but Liberia, Sierra Leone and the Central African Republic do not have any non-stops to the U.S.

The guy in Dallas traveled through Belgium. You'd have to deny boarding to passport holders from the infected countries, and I'm not sure they could get away with that.

If we keep issuing visas, we're going to have to hope the people working in foreign airports are vigilant about denying boarding to anyone with even flu-like symptoms.

Should have been more specific, they will stop selling tickets to anyone in those countries, no interline, no code share.

 

[YankeeFan]

Should have been more specific, they will stop selling tickets to anyone in those countries, no interline, no code share.

It's pretty easy to cancel a flight.

But, I don't know if they could just decide to not sell tickets to people from certain countries -- at least on their own. I suppose the government could order this, but short of that, I would think the airlines would get into some trouble if they tried to do it of their own volition.

 

[da man]

http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/health/3-Richardson-Elementary-Students-Pulled-From-Class-Over-Ebola-277938821.html

 

[Boom_70]

I think it is only a matter of time until all US carriers discontinue flights to some of the infected countries.

Bad optics .

 

[Neutral Corner]

Last I heard he was too weak to talk on the phone. He'll be lucky if he makes it.

 

[MisterCreosote]

I think it is only a matter of time until all US carriers discontinue flights to some of the infected countries.

Nigeria has a couple of non-stop flights, but Liberia, Sierra Leone and the Central African Republic do not have any non-stops to the U.S.

The guy in Dallas traveled through Belgium. You'd have to deny boarding to passport holders from the infected countries, and I'm not sure they could get away with that.

If we keep issuing visas, we're going to have to hope the people working in foreign airports are vigilant about denying boarding to anyone with even flu-like symptoms.

People are denied entry into countries because of health concerns all the time. Yellow fever is probably the most common.

There's an ongoing public health emergency right now regarding polio transmission, and there are at least a dozen countries requiring a documented vaccination within the previous 12 months or they'll quarantine you right at the airport.

 

[Boom_70]

I think it is only a matter of time until all US carriers discontinue flights to some of the infected countries.

Nigeria has a couple of non-stop flights, but Liberia, Sierra Leone and the Central African Republic do not have any non-stops to the U.S.

The guy in Dallas traveled through Belgium. You'd have to deny boarding to passport holders from the infected countries, and I'm not sure they could get away with that.

If we keep issuing visas, we're going to have to hope the people working in foreign airports are vigilant about denying boarding to anyone with even flu-like symptoms.

People are denied entry into countries because of health concerns all the time. Yellow fever is probably the most common.

There's an ongoing public health emergency right now regarding polio transmission, and there are at least a dozen countries requiring a documented vaccination within the previous 12 months or they'll quarantine you right at the airport.

True but again the optics don't work for this one

 

[Boom_70]

I read this, this morning. It is tangentially related.

http://www.bbc.com/news/health-29442642

These forensic scientists traced the origin of the AIDs pandemic (the spread of HIV) to Kinshasa in the 1920s. I find that amazing (and had never thought about it) because it didn't get any global attention until the 1980s when it spread west.

Kinshasa is such a fun word to say. If you can work it into cocktail party discussion, you
sound really smart.