China, calling out to history

[TigerVols]

...is that the way it will always be?

Fantastic paisley 80s hits aside, it's remarkable how little attention two recent speeches by US DoD officials have received. Both pretty much said the same thing: The US needs to prepare for war with China as soon as in two years. Full stop.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...sands-of-autonomous-weapons-in-just-two-years

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...anders-grand-networking-plan-to-take-on-china

 

[Inky_Wretch]

As much money as China makes off the US, I can’t see them killing the Golden Goose. But I may be wrong.

 

[Neutral Corner]

Look at Hong Kong. China made all kinds of promises in the run up to taking over, then killed democracy there and the world did bupkis about it because China. They figure they'll catch all sorts of hell when they take Taiwan, but they'll own it from then on and the rest of the world will shut up about it after a while.

The U.S. and China need each other for economic reasons, but that does not mean that irrational decisions won't be made.

 

[Liut]

For the longest time, I was under the erroneous impression the United States was bound by treaty to defend Taiwan. IIRC, that was the case in the past. Obviously don't remember the particulars.

 

[BTExpress]

Heh. The U.S. breaking treaties is a Tradition Like No Other. So is its habit of dragging its feet to sign or ratify treaties that much of the world supports.

 

[Neutral Corner]

The diplos are afraid that would anger China. They're right. The thing is that if no one ever takes a stand, China will take whatever it wants and shrug off opposition short of war. See the South China Sea islands they have occupied and fortified. India's border with China is heating up again because China has just claimed a big chunk of disputed land there. Again. The difference there is that Indians will fight them over it.

While we don't have a formal defense treaty, we are committed to Taiwan's defense and to arm them as we have Ukraine. In fact, F-16's being sold to Taiwan has recently been announced, in part as a counterweight to China's saber rattling.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

We are not bound by treaty to defend Taiwan because we have no formal relations with them, although of course informal relations are extensive. But every American administration, including the current one, has stated it will defend Taiwan if China attacks. Look, China has its own problems. Its economy is stalling out. It is strongly disliked by all its neighbors, not just governments, but regular people. If Japan and South Korea are taking steps to abandon their poisonous history in favor of cooperation, it's not good for China. By 2050, India will likely be the dominant economic power in Asia.

 

[Shropshire Slasher]

China is closely watching what happens in Ukraine. If the war somehow (improbably) turns in Russia's favor, that will emolden China to make a go at Taiwan. But attacking Taiwan will be much more difficult because there is no land invasion route. It will necessarily be an air and sea battle first.

And yes, there is no U.S. treaty with Taiwan. In fact the two haven't had official diplomatic relations since the U.S. recognized China in the 1970s. But Biden has pledged to back Taiwan several times, and we have forces and allies in the theater as a deterrent.

 

[TigerVols]

Yikes

 

[Inky_Wretch]

A Tucker Carlson disciple spreading a conspiracy theory?

 

[Michael_ Gee]

In the past month, Xi Jinping has been conducting a widespread purge of China's military including an "investigation" of the defense minister. Such purges are not uncommon in dictatorships, but they do tend to negatively impact military effectiveness. If nothing else, the new people installed need time to get up to speed on plans, whatever they may be.

 

[dixiehack]

Equipment stand downs following loss of a craft are not unheard of. That’s an irresponsible tweet.

 

[Neutral Corner]

It's better than the one that implied that it was stolen after it's computer had been hacked.

 

[goalmouth]

A hydrogen bomb was once lost in an air mishap off the coast of South Carolina.

 

[Vombatus]

It's better than the one that implied that it was stolen after it's computer had been hacked.

The pilot ejected from it. It has such a low radar signature, apparently they didn’t have good data on its final course.

 

[qtlaw]

China is much more interested in "invading" a country economically than militarily. Look at its history. It's most successful exports have been merchants. Plus they've got as much a hold of Africa as the US does in the South Pacific. Yes there's saber rattling nowadays but its not like the entire South Pacific economic "tigers" feel an imminent threat of invasion (beyond simply Taiwan). The biggest known Chinese company, Foxcomm, is owned by a Taiwanese billionaire. They're not about to cannibalize their economic interests, which includes the US dollar. Don't fall for this scare tactic. I'm not saying ignore China, but a land invasion in 2 yrs makes no sense, historical or economically. All it leads to is more spending for F-35s built in Tenn/Ala/SC/FL.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

The grounding of all planes after an accident is strictly routine military aviation procedure. I am surprised the plane crashed on land. My guess was that since the pilot set it on autopilot, it was going to crash into the Atlantic away from people.

 

[Neutral Corner]

China is much more interested in "invading" a country economically than militarily. Look at its history. It's most successful exports have been merchants. Plus they've got as much a hold of Africa as the US does in the South Pacific. Yes there's saber rattling nowadays but its not like the entire South Pacific economic "tigers" feel an imminent threat of invasion (beyond simply Taiwan). The biggest known Chinese company, Foxcomm, is owned by a Taiwanese billionaire. They're not about to cannibalize their economic interests, which includes the US dollar. Don't fall for this scare tactic. I'm not saying ignore China, but a land invasion in 2 yrs makes no sense, historical or economically. All it leads to is more spending for F-35s built in Tenn/Ala/SC/FL.

Yes and no. They have simply occupied, fortified, and built up many disputed islands in the South China Sea. in a couple of cases building airfields on them. I wouldn't bet against their attempting to regain Taiwan if they think the situation is such that they have a good chance of getting away with it.

 

[Justin_Rice]

Yes and no. They have simply occupied, fortified, and built up many disputed islands in the South China Sea. in a couple of cases building airfields on them. I wouldn't bet against their attempting to regain Taiwan if they think the situation is such that they have a good chance of getting away with it.

A distant blockade of Chinese shipping after they invade Taiwan would absolutely devastate their economy.

As much as we cry about buying things from China, they themselves are heavily dependent on resource imports.

And Taiwan is a floating fortress; a Chinese Naval invasion would face catastrophic losses.

No. China isn’t invading Taiwan any time soon.

 

[Neutral Corner]

Hope you're right. I claim no great expertise.