Anthony Davis: What's his ceiling?

[bigpern23]

By my count Davis played against 10 possible first-round NBA draft picks at least once this season (according to NBAdraft.net) and played alongside four possible NBA first-rounders.

Here is the list of NBADL MVPs, ostensibly the best player in the league each year:
2001–02 Ansu Sesay, Greenville Groove
2002–03 Devin Brown, Fayetteville Patriots
2003–04 Tierre Brown, Charleston Lowgators
2004–05 Matt Carroll, Roanoke Dazzle
2005–06 Marcus Fizer, Austin Toros
2006–07 Randy Livingston, Idaho Stampede
2007–08 Kasib Powell, Sioux Falls Skyforce
2008–09 Courtney Sims, Iowa Energy
2009–10 Mike Harris, Rio Grande Valley Vipers
2010–11 Curtis Stinson, Iowa Energy

Only two of those guys were drafted in the first round by NBA teams and a third was a second-round pick. No one else has been drafted by the NBA, and these are among the best players in the NBADL.

 

[bigpern23]

I'd wager a much higher percentage of 2011-12 D-League players will make the NBA than the percentage of SEC players. And there are quite a few D-League players who have already been in the NBA. Dan Gadzuric, to use your example -- he was a marginal prospect as a collegian, but he has played more than 500 games in the NBA. If he were transported back to the NCAA right now, he would be a gargantuan beast and a dominant force approaching Patrick Ewing level. So would anybody with that kind of experience.

The apparatus is there for the NBA to create a true developmental league. But when it's so easy to just ride on the backs of 19-year-olds and CBS and the NCAA, why bother?

I don't disagree for a second that the NBA could create a true developmental league. But right now, there's no doubt in my mind that that league is the NCAA, not the NBADL.

 

[LongTimeListener]

By my count Davis played against 10 possible first-round NBA draft picks at least once this season (according to NBAdraft.net) and played alongside four possible NBA first-rounders.

Here is the list of NBADL MVPs, ostensibly the best player in the league each year:
2001–02 Ansu Sesay, Greenville Groove
2002–03 Devin Brown, Fayetteville Patriots
2003–04 Tierre Brown, Charleston Lowgators
2004–05 Matt Carroll, Roanoke Dazzle
2005–06 Marcus Fizer, Austin Toros
2006–07 Randy Livingston, Idaho Stampede
2007–08 Kasib Powell, Sioux Falls Skyforce
2008–09 Courtney Sims, Iowa Energy
2009–10 Mike Harris, Rio Grande Valley Vipers
2010–11 Curtis Stinson, Iowa Energy

Only two of those guys were drafted in the first round by NBA teams and a third was a second-round pick. No one else has been drafted by the NBA, and these are among the best players in the NBADL.

The best players don't get on this list because the best players get a call-up to the NBA. Here's a partial list of players who have passed through the D-League:

Jeremy Lin
Ramon Sessions
J.J. Barea
Matt Barnes
Shannon Brown
Dorell Wright
Marcin Gortat
Aaron Brooks

And a few more, you can look at the list for yourself ...

http://www.nba.com/dleague/news/nba_rosters_2011.html

Whether the current D-League or the current NCAA is better for a one-year stopover is somewhat beside the point, though. The point is the NBA and NCAA want free marketing and have sold a bill of goods about how the NCAA is the best place for kids to "develop."

 

[bigpern23]

By my count Davis played against 10 possible first-round NBA draft picks at least once this season (according to NBAdraft.net) and played alongside four possible NBA first-rounders.

Here is the list of NBADL MVPs, ostensibly the best player in the league each year:
2001–02 Ansu Sesay, Greenville Groove
2002–03 Devin Brown, Fayetteville Patriots
2003–04 Tierre Brown, Charleston Lowgators
2004–05 Matt Carroll, Roanoke Dazzle
2005–06 Marcus Fizer, Austin Toros
2006–07 Randy Livingston, Idaho Stampede
2007–08 Kasib Powell, Sioux Falls Skyforce
2008–09 Courtney Sims, Iowa Energy
2009–10 Mike Harris, Rio Grande Valley Vipers
2010–11 Curtis Stinson, Iowa Energy

Only two of those guys were drafted in the first round by NBA teams and a third was a second-round pick. No one else has been drafted by the NBA, and these are among the best players in the NBADL.

The best players don't get on this list because the best players get a call-up to the NBA. Here's a partial list of players who have passed through the D-League:

Jeremy Lin
Ramon Sessions
J.J. Barea
Matt Barnes
Shannon Brown
Dorell Wright
Marcin Gortat
Aaron Brooks

And a few more, you can look at the list for yourself ...

http://www.nba.com/dleague/news/nba_rosters_2011.html

Whether the current D-League or the current NCAA is better for a one-year stopover is somewhat beside the point, though. The point is the NBA and NCAA want free marketing and have sold a bill of goods about how the NCAA is the best place for kids to "develop."

That list does nothing to dispel my notion that Davis faced better competition in the NCAA than the NBADL.

That said, I absolutely agree the NBA and NCAA are just capitalizing on the year of free marketing at the expense of the players. As others have noted, the one-year restriction is probably short enough to keep anybody from really giving it a good challenge. If it were two or three years, I'm sure someone would take it to court.

 

[JC]

What percentage of D league players played NCAA div 1?

 

[Mizzougrad96]

What percentage of D league players played NCAA div 1?

The majority of them. If you look at those rosters you'll recognize the names.

 

[LongTimeListener]

bigpern, there are guys all over that list who don't look like much now, but compare them to the level of competition Davis faced this year. For instance, you talk about "potential" first-round picks? That's a tag that applies to at least 50 players depending which list you're reading.

Hasheem Thabeet WAS a first-rounder. The #2 overall pick. He is a mountain of a man. He is in the NBA this season, but last year he was in the D-League. And there are players like him every year. Jeremy Tyler was in the D-League this year. For the last month he has been starting at center for Golden State. He is 6-10, 260.

In the backcourt, Antonio Daniels was once the #4 overall pick and a 25-minutes-a-game NBA player. He is now in the D-League.

Do you really think the NCAA is providing that caliber of competition?

 

[JC]

What percentage of D league players played NCAA div 1?

The majority of them. If you look at those rosters you'll recognize the names.

That is my point. For the most part they all played and all did well. Now they are grown men playing pro. The competition would be fine for Davis

 

[LongTimeListener]

The other thing is that a guy like Davis would never ever be a D-Leaguer. Even at the outset he would get 10-12 minutes against NBA players. That's a far sight better than anything he'd see in college.

So, to recap:

--He gets paid
--He gets better
--No charade about "student-athletes" and "playing by the rules"

But:

--Guys on couch don't have as much fun watching

 

[printit]

Now I am jealous of NBA players? Really?

Each NBA team is a business, but the NBA is not a business?

I'll take one more shot at this. Would you be OK with the ownership in any other industry that did not require, for public safety reasons, a specific certification (doctor, lawyer, teacher, etc) all meeting together and deciding, industry wide, to ban a group of people from employment. If so, please name them. If not, why not?

 

[bigpern23]

As you noted early in the discussion, LTL, we fundamentally disagree on the level competition between NCAA ball and NBADL, and I'm happy to agree to disagree, but just one last point:

In college ball, Davis had the opportunity to play against players who will go on to become NBA stars, the absolute best players who are going to enter the league. There is no such opportunity in the NBADL. The guys playing there will, with few exceptions, either go on to become role players or fringe players, or they already have been fringe players and couldn't stick.

So perhaps the average NBADL guy will be better than the average guy an NCAA player will face, but an NCAA player will undoubtedly have the opportunity to play against players with far more talent than anyone in the NBADL.

Maybe if you graphed the skill levels of players on a given opponent in the NCAA vs. NBADL, it would look something like this, with the green being the NCAA:

 

[LongTimeListener]

You glossed over my point that Davis wasn't ever going to play in the D league. The only true comparisons are A) NBA vs. NCAA, ridiculous advantage for the NBA; or B) assuming a D league that is a true baseball-type minor league where all the best players get final seasoning.

Regardless, I am glad that you believe Davis and the rest of the players are getting the best "opportunity," but I think that's better left to the players and the teams that would or wouldn't draft them. Most kids will still choose college for a year or two as they did during the Garnett/Bryant/Kwame Brown/LeBron run. I mean, really, what you are arguing is that LeBron James would have been better served with a year at Ohio State.

 

[bigpern23]

You glossed over my point that Davis wasn't ever going to play in the D league. The only true comparisons are A) NBA vs. NCAA, ridiculous advantage for the NBA; or B) assuming a D league that is a true baseball-type minor league where all the best players get final seasoning.

Regardless, I am glad that you believe Davis and the rest of the players are getting the best "opportunity," but I think that's better left to the players and the teams that would or wouldn't draft them. Most kids will still choose college for a year or two as they did during the Garnett/Bryant/Kwame Brown/LeBron run. I mean, really, what you are arguing is that LeBron James would have been better served with a year at Ohio State.

The point about Davis never going to D League was incorrect regarding our discussion because his options were to go the NCAA or the NBADL. He couldn't go to the NBA out of high school. My contention was that he was better off spending that one year in the NCAA than the NBADL as the rule currently stands.

And I think you missed at some point that I don't believe in the age restriction rule whatsoever. I would never argue that LeBron would have been better off with a year at OSU instead of the NBA.

If NBA GMs can't help themselves from drafting Kwame Brown because he's really tall, I have no sympathy for them and I'm happy for the kid who just made life changing money he might never have made if he were exposed by a year in college.

 

[LongTimeListener]

You mean to tell me we've spent all this time bickering about something we agree on?

Eh. Nobody who knows me would be surprised.

 

[westcoastvol]

I see him developing as a two eyebrow guy about ten minutes after he gets an agent.

 

[93Devil]

We need to find a way to protect more NBA GMs and owners from themselves. Because when a GM gives Darius Miles $75 million, it is not their fault when he turns out to be Darius Miles.

Don't forget we need to make sure our NCAA tournament viewing experience is as top-notch as possible.

Is it televised to entertain people or to make a cultural statement about living conditions in Darfur?

Jesus ****ing Christ, people. Sports are entertainment. The second you start looking at them as anything else, you are completely missing the concept of why this **** is on TV and why people pay millions and billions to show it on TV. Sure, you grow as a person playing them, and there are things to be learned, but the second this **** stops being fun to play and fun to watch, it will go away.

Heaven for ****ing bid that CBS want their money worth when they lay down all this money to show the damn thing.

And heaven for ****ing bid that someone wonders whether the people providing the actual entertainment are properly compensated.

You worry about fans, schools, the NCAA and the networks. Do the players matter?

I just showed you a plan where all top D I players could get paid $75,000 a year, not just the 10 that go to the draft, and they could get more money for personal appearances and other related ventures.

 

[93Devil]

Now I am jealous of NBA players? Really?

Each NBA team is a business, but the NBA is not a business?

I'll take one more shot at this. Would you be OK with the ownership in any other industry that did not require, for public safety reasons, a specific certification (doctor, lawyer, teacher, etc) all meeting together and deciding, industry wide, to ban a group of people from employment. If so, please name them. If not, why not?

You cannot sell alcohol in many states until you reach a certain age. You also need to be a certain age to hold many public offices like President and Senator. There are minimum age requirments toi hold a teaching license and to be an umpire or referee in many sports. I'm sure there are many more, but I think that is enough.

I could add the military, CDLs and others, but you tagged safety.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Not that $75K is anything to sneeze at, but I doubt too many players would ditch a year at Kentucky for that kind of money.

 

[93Devil]

Not that $75K is anything to sneeze at, but I doubt too many players would ditch a year at Kentucky for that kind of money.

You are right, but it would keep anyone's family from starving to death while they wait for the NBA or the NFL.

Mind you, we are having the 1% tail who could leave early for the NBA wag the dog here, but I think this is a very fair format for all involved.

 

[Azrael]

Why should player compensation be capped at some low arbitrary figure when the television money for BCS and the NCAA tournament is in the billions?