Anthony Davis: What's his ceiling?

[bigpern23]

So with the NCAA hoops season in the books, I saw about five or six Kentucky games. I have heard Anthony Davis described as a "franchise-changing" player.

My first reaction to statements like that has been skepticism. The games I've seen, the player he reminds me of most is Marcus Camby (and not because of the Calipari connection), who was a solid pro, but not really a franchise changer. I could see Davis getting a litter bigger and maybe becoming a Dwight Howard.

But with the way the game is played today, I'm not sure any big man is really a "franchise-changing" player anymore. I think Tim Duncan might be the last of those.

But again, I've only seen a few Kentucky games this season. So I'm curious everyone else's take on what his ceiling might be. All-Star? Perennial All-Star? Top 10 player? Hall of Famer? Bust? What say you, SportsJournalists.com?

 

[HejiraHenry]

Tayshaun Prince 2.0? A 15/10 guy with better shot-block numbers?

Which would rank as disappointing, I guess, given the expectations larded onto a No. 1 pick, but would be a very solid career.

 

[dreunc1542]

Davis' game is not like Prince's at all. Prince was a wing player and Davis will play the 4 on most teams, and maybe the 5 if he ever bulks up a lot.

I think he'll be in the 18/12/3 range in his prime.

 

[93Devil]

If he gets stronger, Tim Duncan sounds about right.

Davis also handles the ball very well for a big man and has a very nice shot facing the basket to go along with a nice jump hook. If he gets stronger, he will be a very hard player to match up with in the pros.

 

[dixiehack]

I am a complete idiot, but I would rather draft Kidd-Gilchrist

 

[Webster]

I think that, even though it won't happen, he really would benefit from a year to work on his offensive game.

He has no back to the basket moves -- how many times did he spin baseline from the left and have no shot?

He's a great rebounder with strong hands and a top notch shot blocker.

I think his upside is a better Marcus Camby.

 

[Captain_Kirk]

Great defensive player, but seems to me he'll be offensively challenged in the NBA. Does seem to have decent range for a big man--that could help him.

Was thinking about this earlier this morning and the first name that popped to mind was Dikembe Mutumbo. Porbably not a fair comparison, but if I had to wager, I'd put Davis closer to Mutumbo than to Duncan or Howard.

To me, hardly seems like an automatic #1 overall pick. But, I never thought Duncan would amount to much, so I've been wrong before and am prepared should I be so again here.

 

[bigpern23]

I think one of the things that stuck me on the Marcus Camby comparison is that last night, for instance, Withey kept gaining position on the block with what looked like relative ease. Made it look like Davis is a better weak-side, help defender than he is as a primary defender in the post. Maybe someone who's seen more of him can judge better.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Davis is WAAY better as a freshman than Camby was. He needs better hands on offense and more upper-body strength, but he's still growing. Remember, he had an adolescent growth spurt of cosmic dimensions. His body is still catching up with itself.
But on defense, he's a pro already. When he's on D, he reminds me of what I thought when I first saw Kevin Garnett, that here is a teenager with a game of a 30-year old. His basketball instincts are toppermost of the poppermost.

 

[Azrael]

How much better might he be in the NBA if he played four years in college?

 

[bigpern23]

Davis is WAAY better as a freshman than Camby was. He needs better hands on offense and more upper-body strength, but he's still growing. Remember, he had an adolescent growth spurt of cosmic dimensions. His body is still catching up with itself.
But on defense, he's a pro already. When he's on D, he reminds me of what I thought when I first saw Kevin Garnett, that here is a teenager with a game of a 30-year old. His basketball instincts are toppermost of the poppermost.

That's a fair point, Gee, I'm definitely comparing a 19-year-old Davis with the Camby I saw at UMass in 1996 and later with the Knicks in my mind's eye.

I do, however, remember being much more impressed with Garnett than Davis when he burst onto the scene.

 

[JC]

How much better might he be in the NBA if he played four years in college?

Well, would he better off as a 4th year pro or an incoming rookie?

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Call me crazy but I don't see it yet. Emphasis on yet because who really thought Kyrie Irving would be this good this soon? Camby is an interesting comparison. I don't see him being as good as Garnett or Duncan but how many are?

 

[Azrael]

How much better might he be in the NBA if he played four years in college?

Well, would he better off as a 4th year pro or an incoming rookie?

Depends entirely upon how much actual coaching he'll get in the NBA.

 

[dreunc1542]

Playing against the best players in the world and learning from them, I'm going to guess, will allow him to improve more than staying in school and dominating would.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

He kind of reminds me more of Bosh than he does Garnett. That's far from being a bad thing.

 

[Gehrig]

The thing with Davis is that, even if he doesn't get any better (and there's no reason to assume he wont considering he's grown almost a foot in the past few years, he's young, and seems to have the frame/work ethic to add some weight), what he gives you is a defineable and rare (in this day) skillset.

He will block 2-3 shots every game (without getting himself into foul trouble, blocked 4.6 shots per game this year while only averaging 1.9 PF's...helps having a 7'4" wingspan), he should be able to grab 8-10 boards every night, he's a 70%+ free throw shooter, and rarely turns the ball over (0.9 TO's). Worst case scenario he's a slightly better version of Serge Ibaka, but his best case scenario could be in that Dwight Howard range...who knows.

 

[Azrael]

Playing against the best players in the world and learning from them, I'm going to guess, will allow him to improve more than staying in school and dominating would.

I'm not sure which model is the more efficient. Be interesting to compare outcomes.

Who was the best player ever to come out early? Who was the best player ever to play all four years?

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Who was the last No. 1 to stay all four years?

 

[LongTimeListener]

I think that question has been settled pretty decisively with everyone from Garnett and Kobe to Derrick Rose. There are a lot of pretenders who shouldn't have come out early and that muddies the issue, but most of those guys weren't going to be strong pros with 2-3 more years of training in chest passes and zone defense either.