2015 Baseball HOF ballot released

[Della9250]

I'd love for it to be Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz and Biggio (especially for backlog reasons) but I can't see the writers putting in four at one time.

Smoltz is going to suffer because Biggio isn't get held out again after falling two votes short.

I think four will get in. Isn't Smoltz a favorite of the writers?

The last time the writers put in four guys was 60 years ago. The don't even like to go to three -- last year was the first time since 1999 and only the third time since the mid 80s.

Smoltz might be a favorite but he's going to get dinged for a couple things as a first-timer. He will end up sliding in next to Griffey in 2016 because after Junior the next level for potential candidates is Hoffman, Edmonds and Wagner so Smoltz slots in well above them, making him an overwhelming second choice for voters with small ballots.

I forgot that Fisk didn't get in on the 1999 ballot.

History has shown that every Hall of Fame ballot has no fewer than seven eventual guys that make it. But the writers refuse to fill all their slots. Last year was an blip of their own devices by forcing Alomar to wait / not putting in anyone two years ago / steroid issues

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Ballot arrived in today's mail. Ridiculous. I got to nine just with the no-brainers. Guys I will leave off will be most deserving candidates, like Sheffield, McGriff and Trammell. But whaddaya gonna do? The steroid police still atoning to themselves for missing that story are going to wind up screwing players who never came near PEDs by splitting all these votes.

 

[Rainman]

Johnson, Martinez and Biggio will be elected.

I'm guessing at least Sosa drops off the ballot with less than 5% this year. I'm also skeptical of Delgado or Garciaparra garnering 5% support in their first ballot. We'll have to watch the published ballots carefully to get a feel for the second-tier newcomers.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Rainman, it was very interesting to see Ken Rosenthal and Tom Verducci on the MLB Network yesterday saying they voted for the max 10 candidates and that the backlog of worthy candidates has become a major problem for the Hall. Those two are the complete insiders, and it's possible they represent a sea change in attitude within the BBWAA electorate, as well as in MLB's attitude towards its museum. So there might be more than three elected this year.

 

[Rainman]

Rainman, it was very interesting to see Ken Rosenthal and Tom Verducci on the MLB Network yesterday saying they voted for the max 10 candidates and that the backlog of worthy candidates has become a major problem for the Hall. Those two are the complete insiders, and it's possible they represent a sea change in attitude within the BBWAA electorate, as well as in MLB's attitude towards its museum. So there might be more than three elected this year.

Interesting, but a "sea change"? Color me skeptical. If there's a fourth inductee, it would be Smoltz or Piazza. And I honestly can't see either of them climbing the other bodies at the fenceline enough to get over to the other side.

At times there is an element of retribution in my thinking which goes something like this: if the Hall is going to screw the fans (by not fixing the process) then I hope the results are more like 2013 than 2014 so the public outcry will grow louder about the dysfunction. Electing a couple of guys a year in spite of the process will result in the Hall claiming victory and taking the "nothing to see here" approach they prefer rather than addressing the core issues they have spent 75 years running from. There's a part of me that would rather see the system come crashing down on their heads if that's what it takes to generate real reform than to continue with the approach of adding new wallpaper over something that is structurally unsound.

 

[RecoveringJournalist]

Rainman, it was very interesting to see Ken Rosenthal and Tom Verducci on the MLB Network yesterday saying they voted for the max 10 candidates and that the backlog of worthy candidates has become a major problem for the Hall. Those two are the complete insiders, and it's possible they represent a sea change in attitude within the BBWAA electorate, as well as in MLB's attitude towards its museum. So there might be more than three elected this year.

I think it will be interesting to see what happens when the first person who is widely presumed or known to have used PEDs gets in. I'm not sure if Bagwell would count, but I'm talking about someone like Piazza.

I doubt it will happen this year, but I think once one of them gets in, we'll see several others make it the following years.

 

[Della9250]

If there was a sea of change, when they changed the length of ballot stay to 10 years they would have changed the number of players you could vote for to 15 or 20 or unlimited because there were enough voicing the fact they would vote for more than 10.

And rainman's exactly right -- the Hall will look at the multiple guys going in now, because there are so many worthy first-timers showing up all in a row -- and say the process works as opposed to what happened from 2010-13 when it was obvious changes were needed and still come into play.

 

[outofplace]

If there was a sea of change, when they changed the length of ballot stay to 10 years they would have changed the number of players you could vote for to 15 or 20 or unlimited because there were enough voicing the fact they would vote for more than 10.

And rainman's exactly right -- the Hall will look at the multiple guys going in now, because there are so many worthy first-timers showing up all in a row -- and say the process works as opposed to what happened from 2010-13 when it was obvious changes were needed and still come into play.

Agreed. That there are too many clearly deserving candidates right now might actually hurt any chance of real reform.

 

[Della9250]

If you want the writers to get rid of the mess they created, you need as many full ballots as possible and you need anyone below a full ballot to have at least the four of Unit, Pedro, Smoltz and Biggio. If Smoltz carries over to 2016, the same issues just keep repeating.

Anyone with a full ballot last year is going to replace Maddux/Glavine/Thomas with Unit/Pedro/Smoltz. The only way the full ballot voters make a difference this year is they had Morris among their 10 and that spot goes to someone else.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Just curious. The Hall procedure is obviously flawed. But what reforms exactly do you guys have in mind?

 

[RecoveringJournalist]

Just curious. The Hall procedure is obviously flawed. But what reforms exactly do you guys have in mind?

Honestly, I don't know what I would change. I think the only real problem is they don't know what to do with guys who have admitted cheating, are widely presumed to have cheated or are lumped with the cheaters fairly or unfairly. It's a tough spot to be in.

I hate the way the NFL does it when everything is anonymous.

 

[RecoveringJournalist]

Is there "a backlog of worthy candidates" who aren't linked to PED use?

 

[Guy_Incognito]

Is there "a backlog of worthy candidates" who aren't linked to PED use?

Yes.
Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz, Bagwell, Piazza, Biggio, Raines. I would add Trammel, Mussina and am on the fence about schilling and Edgar. That doesn't even count Clemens, Bonds & Sheffield. Kent also deserves more support than some who have received more, though ultimately I would have him fall short.

 

[Songbird]

Went to look up something on Kent and his prodigious home run ways and wanted to check something on Ryne Sandberg. Couple things:

1, His MVP year was pretty impressive, not so much for the 36 doubles and 19 homers -- but the 19 triples. That's a ****-load of triples.

2, Ever pay attention to his home runs after the year he hit 26? 14-16-19 ... 30-40-26-26 ... 9 ... quite a spike, huh?

 

[Drip]

My list goes:
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Gary Sheffield
John Smoltz
Craig Biggio
Mike Piazza, 62.2
Jeff Bagwell, 54.3
I'd like to see Tim Raines, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and Lee Smith make it but I don't think it's possible.

 

[Della9250]

Well we can kiss that John Smoltz unanimous vote out the window early: Mike Dyer's ballot is: Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Clemens, Piazza, Bagwell, Trammell, Bonds, Sosa, Raines and Walker.

He replaced Maddux and Thomas with Unit and Pedro among newcomers and Edgar and Palmeiro with Trammell and Bagwell

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Drip, Sheffield was my 11th pick. I voted Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Johnson, Pedro, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Smoltz.

 

[Guy_Incognito]

Drip, Sheffield was my 11th pick. I voted Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Johnson, Pedro, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Smoltz.

I understand why you would go Schilling over Mussina, but disagree.

 

[outofplace]

Is there "a backlog of worthy candidates" who aren't linked to PED use?

Yes.
Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz, Bagwell, Piazza, Biggio, Raines. I would add Trammel, Mussina and am on the fence about schilling and Edgar. That doesn't even count Clemens, Bonds & Sheffield. Kent also deserves more support than some who have received more, though ultimately I would have him fall short.

It depends how you define "linked to PED use." I absolutely believe PED suspicions have hurt Bagwell, even though they absolutely should not be holding him back. There is no evidence at all, but even suspicion is enough for some of these crusaders to misuse their ballots. Piazza also has the accusations against him.

 

[Rainman]

Just curious. The Hall procedure is obviously flawed. But what reforms exactly do you guys have in mind?

There's any number of intelligent suggestions floating around the 'net, ranging from common sense tweaks to the blow-it-all-up-and-start-over approaches. The point being that the system in place has always been a patchwork, knee-jerk response to public criticism. The rules change announced in July, itself, was a way to defuse criticism from those living Hall-of-Famers vocal about not participating in future induction weekends if Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, etc. are elected.

The Hall of Fame has never thought about what a Hall-of-Famer should be, how to define that, how many there ought to be, how to identify and distinguish between those who are and those who aren't, or what qualifications those making such decisions should have. The system in place isn't even designed to produce an induction ceremony each year, which is quite incredible. (The Hall of Fame has had 7 years when no induction ceremonies were held, either because no elections were held or no one was elected.) The Hall of Fame has a long history of stubbornly avoiding critical thinking about the most essential questions underlying a Hall of Fame while constantly running away from their problems by trying to satiate one group or another. (If it's not the living HoFers, its MLB, or the BBWAA, etc.)

There are millions of baseball fans who deeply care about the Hall of Fame and what it represents to this and future generations, many of whom have put many more hours studying the institution, its history, and its electoral process - far more than the people on its Board of Directors have. I'd be open to any sensible reform that sought to address the core issues, whether I ultimately agreed with it or not. The Hall of Fame isn't interested in even having that discussion.