When will Joe get Yank-ed out of the South Bronx?

[hockeybeat]

Six games in six days that could define a season and spell the end of an era.

The New York Yankees prepare for six games against the crosstown rival Mets and a renewal of their seemingly monthly blood feud against the Red Sox staring into an abyss. An overabundance of high-salaried players on the downside of their careers that have almost no trade value. Little youth, especially positionally. A bullpen that, save for future Hall-of-Famer Mariano Rivera, rivals that of the Cubs and Phillies in incompetence.

Numbers don't lie, but liars do figure. In this case, though, the liars can't hide the ugly numbers:

American League East Standings
W L Pct GB Home Road East Cent West Streak L10
Boston Red Sox 28 12 .700 -- 14-6 14-6 14-5 7-3 7-4 Won 2 8-2
New York Yankees 18 21 .462 9.5 10-9 8-12 3-11 6-3 9-7 Lost 1 4-6
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 18 22 .450 10.0 11-9 7-13 6-10 5-5 7-7 Won 4 4-6
Toronto Blue Jays 18 22 .450 10.0 12-11 6-11 11-10 5-7 2-5 Won 3 5-5
Baltimore Orioles 18 23 .439 10.5 12-8 6-15 11-9 7-12 0-2 Lost 5

American League Wild Card Standings
W L GB Left
Detroit Tigers 24 16 -- 122
Chicago White Sox 20 17 2.5 125
Oakland Athletics 20 20 4.0 122
Seattle Mariners 18 18 4.0 126
New York Yankees 18 21 5.5 123
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 18 22 6.0 122
Minnesota Twins 18 22 6.0 122
Toronto Blue Jays 18 22 6.0 122
Baltimore Orioles 18 23 6.5 121
Texas Rangers 15 26 9.5 121
Kansas City Royals 15 27 10.0 120

Team Payroll Average
NY Yankees: 198,662,180 7,095,078
Boston: 120,100,524 4,448,168
Los Angeles Angels: 103,625,333 4,145,013
Chicago White Sox: 102,875,667 3,956,756
New York Mets: 100,901,085 3,880,811
Los Angeles Dodgers: 99,176,950 3,673,220
Chicago Cubs: 94,841,167 3,387,185
Houston: 92,551,503 3,559,673
Atlanta: 92,461,852 3,188,340
San Francisco: 90,862,063 3,634,483
St. Louis: 88,441,218 3,401,585
Seattle: 88,324,500 3,397,096
Philadelphia: 88,273,333 3,269,383
Detroit: 82,302,069 3,048,225
Baltimore: 72,585,713 2,592,347
Toronto: 71,915,000 2,663,519
San Diego 69,725,179 2,490,185
Texas: 65,468,130 2,111,875
Minnesota: 63,810,048 2,454,233
Washington: 63,267,500 2,108,917
Oakland: 62,322,054 2,492,882
Cincinnati: 59,489,015 2,124,608
Arizona: 59,221,226 2,277,739
Cleveland: 56,795,867 2,271,835
Milwaukee: 56,790,000 2,271,600
Kansas City: 47,294,000 1,630,828
Pittsburgh: 46,867,750 1,673,848
Colorado: 41,133,000 1,371,100
Tampa Bay: 35,417,967 1,264,927
Florida: 14,998,500 576,865

If the Yanks are swept or lose five-of-six to the Mets and Red Sox, does George Steinbrenner fire Torre and Brian Cashman? If he does, who replaces them? Certainly, YES Network's Joe Girardi and bench coach Don Mattingly will be on the shortlist of potential managerial replacements. But do they possess the marquee name value so desired in the South Bronx?

http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkyNjgmZmdiZWw3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTcxMzYxMjUmeXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk2 http://www.nypost.com/seven/05182007/sports/mets/amazin_run_of_supremacy_will_last_a_while_mets_joel_sherman.htm

Second in MLB and American League in hitting, numbers skewed by an April which highlighted the Yankees flawed pitching, aging arms and slowed gloves. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=9 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=7&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=runs&split=0&season=2007http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=9&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=runs&split=40&season=2007http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=9&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=runs&split=41&season=2007http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=pitching&group=9&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=ERA&split=0&season=2007 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=pitching&group=7&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=ERA&split=0&season=2007http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=fielding&group=9&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=errors&split=0&season=2007http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=fielding&group=7&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=errors&split=0&season=2007

So, esteemed intelligencia of SportsJournalists.com, will Joe Torre and Brian Cashman be fired?

 

[Gold]

Oooh boy...

I don't know that Cashman is responsible for all of the enlightened moves over the past couple of years - trading for Jaret Wright, paying a ridiculous amount for Igawa because they didn't sign Dice-K, getting Kyle Farnsworth. It is usually assumed the "baseball people" in Tampa are behind any screwup.

However, the Yankees appear to be heading on a downturn. Getting Clemens could get them to the playoffs but probably not the World Series. They may need to replace Cashman with somebody who can get things going in a different direction. Of course, having an actual person to replace Cashman is the hard part... I still have horrible thoughts remembering Murray Cook as the general manager. I would think the new GM would pick the new manager - I really question if it is reasonable to assume that Joe Torre would want to manage for a couple years after this and wonder if that would be the best option for the Yankees.

On the post website, I saw something absurd. Brian Bruney is third on the team in strikeouts. A relief pitcher who isn't a closer or setup man being that high in strikeouts seems amazing.

 

[bigpern23]

Six games in six days that could define a season and spell the end of an era.

The New York Yankees prepare for six games against the crosstown rival Mets and a renewal of their seemingly monthly blood feud against the Red Sox staring into an abyss. An overabundance of high-salaried players on the downside of their careers that have almost no trade value. Little youth, especially positionally. A bullpen that, save for future Hall-of-Famer Mariano Rivera, rivals that of the Cubs and Phillies in incompetence.

Numbers don't lie, but liars do figure. In this case, though, the liars can't hide the ugly numbers:

American League East Standings
W L Pct GB Home Road East Cent West Streak L10
Boston Red Sox 28 12 .700 -- 14-6 14-6 14-5 7-3 7-4 Won 2 8-2
New York Yankees 18 21 .462 9.5 10-9 8-12 3-11 6-3 9-7 Lost 1 4-6
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 18 22 .450 10.0 11-9 7-13 6-10 5-5 7-7 Won 4 4-6
Toronto Blue Jays 18 22 .450 10.0 12-11 6-11 11-10 5-7 2-5 Won 3 5-5
Baltimore Orioles 18 23 .439 10.5 12-8 6-15 11-9 7-12 0-2 Lost 5

What jumps out at me here is the Red Sox' .700 winning pct. I find it difficult to believe that will hold up. If it does, they'll win 114 games which doesn't seem likely. Regression to the mean. The biggest equalizer in a 162-game season.

They'd more likely finish in the 95-100 win range, which means they'll be between 67-55 (.549) and 72-50 (.592) over the final 122 games. To catch the Sox, the Yankees would then have to go between 77-46 (.626) and 83-40 (.666). Both of those winning percentages appear doable to me, particularly once the rotation gets fully healthy.

You can argue about the bullpen, but I think that if it could get some rest (a BIG "if") it would be fine. Don't forget that it was the second-best bullpen in baseball until the Red Sox blew it up after everyone was pitching a couple innings a day as the starters went 3 innings per game.

Taking all that into account -- and George's recent voice of support of Torre -- I say no, they do not get fired. If George fires Torre, it would mean he was wrong to support him a week or two ago and I don't think he'd want to admit that this early. Cashman is safe at least until after the trade deadline, though I'd assume he's safe for the year.

 

[statrat]

I'm sure the Mariners will be willing to send them Bill Bavasi and Mike Hargrove to replace Cashman and Torre in exchange for cash. I'm sure Bavasi's last act could even toss Ichiro into the deal... That said, I don't think Steinbrenner replaces Torre now. He has no better options and knows it. If it gets to be August and the Yankees have faded, then he might make a move, but not now with Clemens on the way and some hope of keeping the ship afloat for the rest of the season.

 

[KP]

Starter number 11 gets the ball on Sunday, Tyler (thanks, Ang, my slip) Clippard.
That series coming up against Boston is huge, they get wiped there and they are looking 12-15 back by the time they head to Fenway for Roger's debut.
Will be interesting to see how the rain plays with rotations this weekend.

As much as one would think the Sox have to fall back a bit, keep in mind, the 4-5 combination of Manny-Drew has done very little.

 

[zeke12]

pern --

I'm not sure how you can make an argument based on the BoSox regressing to the mean and then talk about the Yankees playing .667 ball the rest of the way being realistic.

Granted, the Twins did it last year, but it is an exception, by no means should it be assumed.

 

[bigpern23]

pern --

I'm not sure how you can make an argument based on the BoSox regressing to the mean and then talk about the Yankees playing .667 ball the rest of the way being realistic.

Granted, the Twins did it last year, but it is an exception, by no means should it be assumed.

The Yankees have won at least 95 games in nine of the last 10 seasons, so for them, getting to 95 wins would be ascending to the mean. To get to 95 wins (.586), they'd need to play .626 ball, only 4 points higher than the final percentage. I don't think that's the least bit unrealistic.

I do think it's borderline unrealistic for them win 100. It's possible, but obviously not likely.

But I never said it should be assumed they would do either. I simply said it's very possible and I don't think that can really be argued.

 

[Oz]

Hard to imagine Torre getting fired during the season when Clemens joined the team in part because of him. (Yes, I know money drove it, I'm not that naive.)

 

[casty33]

It's a legitimate question, HB, because it's what people are talking about. But there are a number of things to consider before trying to answer it:

*Is George still George? Is he still capable of making decisions or does Randy Levine and whatever son is in fine standing make all the decisions? (Keep in mind, George has not been seen or heard in quite some time. All we get from Tampa are prefab statements prepared by Howard Rubinstein and there are some who feel George is not himself these days.)

*Didn't Roger Clemens say he would not have agreed to return to the Yankees if Joe Torre was not still the manager?

*Is Don Mattingly actually ready to manage? And, if not, is it a smack in the face to the beloved Mattingly to name Joe Girardi ahead of him?

*Would there be fan revolt if Joe were fired?

*How much money is Torre still owed?

With all that in mind, I say it doesn't happen at this time.

 

[spnited]

Joe's deal is up at the end of the season and has not yet been extended...
Nobody really knows who's calling the shots in Tampa but that does not necessarily work in Torre's favor
If they are 12-13 out before Clemens ever pitches, that $18+ mill is a bigger waste than ever
Mattingly' doe not seem ready. How would Girardi handle NY media?
Would there be a player revolt (See Derek "I love Mr. Torre" Jeter) if Torre gets canned? Would they lie down like dogs the rest of the season? (Not that some of them haven't already, Johnny Damon)

Things could get very ugly, very fast in the Bronx.
It would be delightful summer viewing

 

[KP]

pern --

I'm not sure how you can make an argument based on the BoSox regressing to the mean and then talk about the Yankees playing .667 ball the rest of the way being realistic.

Granted, the Twins did it last year, but it is an exception, by no means should it be assumed.

The Yankees have won at least 95 games in nine of the last 10 seasons, so for them, getting to 95 wins would be ascending to the mean. To get to 95 wins (.586), they'd need to play .626 ball, only 4 points higher than the final percentage. I don't think that's the least bit unrealistic.

I do think it's borderline unrealistic for them win 100. It's possible, but obviously not likely.

But I never said it should be assumed they would do either. I simply said it's very possible and I don't think that can really be argued.

Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera - the only players on the current roster that won World Series rings with the Yankees so I'm not how much stock you can put in their success from 1997.

 

[Angola!]

Starter number 11 gets the ball on Sunday, Tim Clippard.
That series coming up against Boston is huge, they get wiped there and they are looking 12-15 back by the time they head to Fenway for Roger's debut.
Will be interesting to see how the rain plays with rotations this weekend.

As much as one would think the Sox have to fall back a bit, keep in mind, the 4-5 combination of Manny-Drew has done very little.

It's Tyler Clippard, not Tim.

 

[Gold]

Here's what I wonder:

If they are 50-50 in July and in danger of missing the playoffs, could a move to another manager be sold to Jeter and could the move be done?

The problem with figuring these things out is this - the move I suggested might be made in a normal situation to try to spark things. But I don't think you can do that in New York with Joe Torre, unless fans start booing him. Not that he is to blame - he doesn't have Jeff Nelson and Mike Stanton setting up Mariano.

And shame on you spnited, getting pleasure from seeing the misery of Yankees fans.

 

[KP]

Here's what I wonder:

If they are 50-50 in July and in danger of missing the playoffs, could a move to another manager be sold to Jeter and could the move be done?

The problem with figuring these things out is this - the move I suggested might be made in a normal situation to try to spark things. But I don't think you can do that in New York with Joe Torre, unless fans start booing him. Not that he is to blame - he doesn't have Jeff Nelson and Mike Stanton setting up Mariano.

And shame on you spnited, getting pleasure from seeing the misery of Yankees fans.

Or could you see them releasing/trading Clemens to someone in contention.

 

[outofplace]

pern --

I'm not sure how you can make an argument based on the BoSox regressing to the mean and then talk about the Yankees playing .667 ball the rest of the way being realistic.

Granted, the Twins did it last year, but it is an exception, by no means should it be assumed.

The Yankees have won at least 95 games in nine of the last 10 seasons, so for them, getting to 95 wins would be ascending to the mean. To get to 95 wins (.586), they'd need to play .626 ball, only 4 points higher than the final percentage. I don't think that's the least bit unrealistic.

I do think it's borderline unrealistic for them win 100. It's possible, but obviously not likely.

But I never said it should be assumed they would do either. I simply said it's very possible and I don't think that can really be argued.

Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera - the only players on the current roster that won World Series rings with the Yankees so I'm not how much stock you can put in their success from 1997.

Exactly. The fact that they had so much success the last 10 years does not mean it will happen this year. It won't make the pitching staff any better. It won't turn the clock back on all of their aging players. It's not impossible, but it's also not impossible that the Pirates would rip off 20 wins in a row. Ok, that's a little less possible, but....

Cashman definitely has to take some blame for this. He supposedly had taken control over the last year or two. Igawa has been a disaster, and that has to fall on him. So does turning first base over to Phelps and Mientkiewicz and failing to get any real effective help for the bench or the bullpen.

 

[Minnesota4Ever]

It's a legitimate question, HB, because it's what people are talking about. But there are a number of things to consider before trying to answer it:

*Is George still George? Is he still capable of making decisions or does Randy Levine and whatever son is in fine standing make all the decisions? (Keep in mind, George has not been seen or heard in quite some time. All we get from Tampa are prefab statements prepared by Howard Rubinstein and there are some who feel George is not himself these days.)

*Didn't Roger Clemens say he would not have agreed to return to the Yankees if Joe Torre was not still the manager?

*Is Don Mattingly actually ready to manage? And, if not, is it a smack in the face to the beloved Mattingly to name Joe Girardi ahead of him?

*Would there be fan revolt if Joe were fired?

*How much money is Torre still owed?

With all that in mind, I say it doesn't happen at this time.

I agree, Dan. I doubt Joe and Brian Cashman will be fired. Is there any one really that good that can step in at this time? I don't think Mattingly or Girardi would be any better. Piniella would be that guy, but he is in Chicago.

As for Roger, maybe it mattered for the Yankees to sign Roger, but with him signing his contract, those words by George now mean nothing. If Clements wants to quit now because his manager will be fired, then more power to him for leaving that generous contract behind. For the life of me, I wonder why Clemens wanted to sign with the Yankees. Boston was a better fit for him.

Changing managers will not get this team to turn young, pitch better, or etc. This team is what they are which is a lifeless old team with no pitching. Joe Torre was a genius in the late nineties because he had great pitching. Now, he is a dummy because his starters can't go deep in the innings and his bullpen is unreliable.

As for fans revolting, well from listening to sports radio and reading NYYfans.com, it sounds like fans are ready for a change. I know most Yankees fans that I speak to wanted Piniella here when the opportunity existed.

 

[thebiglead]

If the Yankees are trailing the Red Sox by double-digits on June 1st, I think you've got a point. Otherwise ... nah.

 

[hockeybeat]

Yanks are now 10 back of Boston.

 

[BYH]

Torre's not getting fired. But the Yankees are just about finished in the AL East. Another sweep by the Sox next week and it's over. But I wouldn't count them out of the wild card yet, just because.

If nothing else, Steinbrenner will keep torre on to a.) earn his money and b.) torture him.

And spnited, I presume you meant to refer to Bobby Abreu as the OFer who has already mailed it in, not Damon. Damon is at least legitimately hurt. Abreu's passionless play is starting to make the haters in Philly look prescient.

 

[hockeybeat]

Damon may be legitimately hurt, but he also has his head up his ass. Tonight, he rips a leadoff single to short left field off of Oliver Perez. Inexplicably, Damon tried to stretch the single into a double, and was thrown out by Endy Chavez.

With Jeter and ARod hitting behind him, why would Damon take that risk?