WAR, what is it good for?

[Dick Whitman]

Using WAR to fill out your A.L. Cy Young ballot?

Good freaking luck.

Baseball Reference has Chris Sale at a meager 5.3 WAR this season.

Chris Sale Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

Then there's Fangraphs, which has him at a whopping 7.9.

Chris Sale » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

Then there's Corey Kluber.

6.0 on B-R, ahead of Sale. And 5.5 on Fangraphs, 2.4 WAR behind Sale.

If someone uses WAR to justify their A.L. Cy Young pick, I am punching him or her in the nose.

 

[QYFW]

Absolutely nothing ...

 

[User 11148]

Just looked up my down-the-street neighbor (late-season callup for a pennant-winning NL team) ... his WAR was -0.4 and his RAR was -5.

 

[Starman]

They call it sabermetrics!
Good only for the academics!
It's wins above replacement,
But I call it a debasement!

 

[LongTimeListener]

Adande is voting for David Price. Leads the league in SWAG.

 

[Chef2]

Absolutely nothing ...

Sing it again.

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

Even if they were dead even (they're not, Sale has the edge statistically), Sale would still have the advantage based on four more games pitched. How can any WAR calculation not account for that?

 

[MisterCreosote]

Sing it again.

Good God. You All.

 

[Tarheel316]

Absolutely nothing ...

Absolutely right.

 

[BB Bobcat]

As someone who has voted for the Cy Young before, I find it to be easiest of the awards because ....

It's just who pitched the best. Nothing about your team or how good you'll be next year. It's also apples to apples, no worrying about comparing pitchers to position players or a full season vs 2/3 of a season (like ROY).

And for that, there are plenty of stats that do the job perfectly.

How effective were you at getting outs? (WHIP, opponents OBP, opponents OPS)

How effective were you at preventing runs? (ERA, ERA+)

Things like FIP and WAR get too much into "what should have happened?" Or "what will happen next year?" Good for a GM acquiring pitchers. Not good for someone voting for an award on what already happened.

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

As someone who has voted for the Cy Young before, I find it to be easiest of the awards because ....

It's just who pitched the best. Nothing about your team or how good you'll be next year. It's also apples to apples, no worrying about comparing pitchers to position players or a full season vs 2/3 of a season (like ROY).

And for that, there are plenty of stats that do the job perfectly.

How effective were you at getting outs? (WHIP, opponents OBP, opponents OPS)

How effective were you at preventing runs? (ERA, ERA+)

Things like FIP and WAR get too much into "what should have happened?" Or "what will happen next year?" Good for a GM acquiring pitchers. Not good for someone voting for an award on what already happened.

Don't forget wins. Cy Young Award winners win!

 

[Starman]

WAR has shattered
many fantasy teams
Made fans frustrated,
Bitter and mean.

WAR has made pitchers
into MVPs.
Don't give me wins and losses
I want your W.H.I.P!

Baseball honors are too precious
to base on the silly ERA.
WAR may not give you the Cy Young,
But it can probably take it away!

WAR!! HUHH!!

 

[justgladtobehere]

I believe Fangraphs uses a component stat like xFIP to determine WAR while bb-ref uses adjusted ERA, which would explain the differences.

 

[dixiehack]

Parody lyrics Starman is the most underrated Starman.

 

[The Big Ragu]

I believe Fangraphs uses a component stat like xFIP to determine WAR while bb-ref uses adjusted ERA, which would explain the differences.

It also explains the similarity, too. ... They are both masturbatory exercises.

It isn't a statistic. It is a judgment -- based on biased reasoning with regard to what is valuable in a baseball player. They took some contrived measurements (that introduced their own biases -- something actual statistics tries to avoid at all costs), threw them into a hat and gave it an acronym. Most people who throw the numbers around have no clue how to calculate a WAR (using any of the various ways -- because the biased inputs that go into the soup differ from practitioner to practitioner). On top of it, they can't offer any empircal reason for why it is a meaningful measurement of any sort.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Yeah, but if they're way off they just go and refigure the formula. So whatever a guy's 2017 WAR is now, his 2017 WAR will be different in 2019.

So that makes it even better!

 

[JC]

It also explains the similarity, too. ... They are both masturbatory exercises.

It isn't a statistic. It is a judgment -- based on biased reasoning with regard to what is valuable in a baseball player. They took some contrived measurements (that introduced their own biases -- something actual statistics tries to avoid at all costs), threw them into a hat and gave it an acronym. Most people who throw the numbers around have no clue how to calculate a WAR (using any of the various ways -- because the biased inputs that go into the soup differ from practitioner to practitioner). On top of it, they can't offer any empircal reason for why it is a meaningful measurement of any sort.

Wins.