The financial apocalpyse is upon us

[The Big Ragu]

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/secret-summit-of-top-bankers/story-e6frez7r-1225827289543

Or so the story above makes it sound.

There will be a government that needs to be bailed out by the IMF to avoid defaulting on its debt sometime this year. Greece, Portugal, Spain; who will it be? Things feel kind of spooky right now because this is where the double dip begins.

Things are that much scarier when a bunch of centralized-planning bankers from around the world get together in secret. They hatch their plots and do their secret handshakes; things turn out worse than they would have.

 

[Football_Bat]

Bilderburgers! Secret plots! Boogity boogity!

 

[The Big Ragu]

Somethin' like that.

 

[RickStain]

*makes note of 173rd financial apocalypse he's been warned about since he began accessing the internet*

 

[The Big Ragu]

*makes note of 173rd financial apocalypse he's been warned about since he began accessing the internet*

176 and counting, actually. Wait till the British tabloids get their hands on the photos of Ben Bernanke, Tiger Woods, a kangaroo and two models from the undisclosed location in Sydney. The FTSE 100 is gonna plummet.

 

[The Big Ragu]

FYI, if you don't think guys who spend their days surrounded by interest rates know how to party. ... check out the computer screen of the broker behind the right shoulder of the guy talking.

 

[Baron Scicluna]

Everytime I see my wacky next-door neighbor (not the druggies from across the street), she tells me to listen to some tinfoil guy on the radio about how there's this huge conspiracy with the Rockerfellers and the Rothchilds to bankrupt the U.S.

I usually just smile and nod my head.

 

[The Big Ragu]

Everytime I see my wacky next-door neighbor (not the druggies from across the street), she tells me to listen to some tinfoil guy on the radio about how there's this huge conspiracy with the Rockerfellers and the Rothchilds to bankrupt the U.S.

I usually just smile and nod my head.

We mock what we don't understand.

Hey, everyone decided today that Portugal will be the one to default. Greece and Spain looking safe, till tomorrow at least.

 

[Football_Bat]

Mexico's GDP is bigger than Spain's, which in turn is much larger than Greece's or Portugal's. If one of these countries defaults, highly embarrassing yes, nuclear winter no.

 

[RickStain]

We mock what we don't understand.

Sometimes. But sometimes we mock stuff that's just funny.

 

[The Big Ragu]

Mexico's GDP is bigger than Spain's, which in turn is much larger than Greece's or Portugal's. If one of these countries defaults, highly embarrassing yes, nuclear winter no.

The last time I heard the words "Spain" and "nuclear winter" used in the same sentence, I believe Vladimir Alexandrov was still listed in the white pages.

 

[The Big Ragu]

By the way, if any of those countries default, nope, it's not a nuclear winter, but it's a disaster. There is no telling how many hundreds of billions of dollars of exposure various banks around Europe have to the debt of those countries. German banks alone, for example, have $240 billion worth of exposure to Spain. A sovereign default--and it doesn't matter if it is Dubai, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, etc.--will make what the U.S. meltdown two years did to the world's banks look like the good old days.

It won't get to that, though. Assuming we don't have a giant meltdown at once with several countries defaulting, the IMF will step in and do bail outs. The ones I feel bad for are France and Germany. If there is a default anywhere, they are the ones everyone is going to look for for the money because their economies are the largest. That Eurozone idea ain't looking as grand as it was. You can link your financial fortunes, but as long as politically the agendas of those countries are all over the map, it turns out you might be making for some horrible bed partners.

 

[Herbert Anchovy]

*makes note of 173rd financial apocalypse he's been warned about since he began accessing the internet*

We owe China about a trillion in paper. When the full implications of that are realized, or when the bill comes due (whichever comes first), there will be a real panic.

 

[RickStain]

*makes note of 173rd financial apocalypse he's been warned about since he began accessing the internet*

We owe China about a trillion in paper. When the full implications of that are realized, or when the bill comes due (whichever comes first), there will be a real panic.

Only if and when China has incentive to cause a panic. For the near future, I'm not too worried.

 

[Herbert Anchovy]

Maybe someday they want to be a **** about it. It's not like it would be out of character.

Vanity Fair had the story a few years ago about them buying up our treasury notes, like the high-priced loan shark in the wifebeater. If that won't send a chill up your spine, then you're impervious to the potential bigtime severity of this.

 

[RickStain]

Well, what exactly am I supposed to be scared of? China is a **** and calls in our debt.

I guess theoretically it could escalate to war, but that's really in neither side's best interests and I doubt it happens.

Realistically, it would just mean a major hit to the American economy, forcing the government and we the people to take a hit to our standard of living that's been a long time coming.

I understand the issue, but I'm just not all that unnerved.

 

[The Big Ragu]

Maybe someday they want to be a **** about it. It's not like it would be out of character.

Vanity Fair had the story a few years ago about them buying up our treasury notes, like the high-priced loan shark in the wifebeater. If that won't send a chill up your spine, then you're impervious to the potential bigtime severity of this.

The Chinese are concerned about one thing: growing their economy in double digits year over year. And that is in jeopardy. Their growth has come largely on the back of the U.S. consumer. The fact that they have devoured our debt helped propped us up for a good year or two. When they prattle on about abandoning the dollar and trying to develop an alternative global currency, we should be concerned. But we also have to keep in mind that they can't just abandon us, because they have so much invested in us already and more importantly, we're the best golden goose they have for the future growth their government needs to keep everyone as happy as they have been. China needs the U.S. to be strong as much, or more, than WE need the U.S. to be strong.

Americans have gotten cheap goods from China, which has single-handedly kept inflation in check here. The Chinese have gotten some serious economic growth from their goods that we devour--they can't make stuff fast enough or cheap enough. Their government needs a place to invest all the money they have made and they bought a lot of our debt because U.S. treasuries are safe. That was looking bad because the dollar was weak and they were getting pissed. But right now? The dollar is strengthening because of how frightful things are looking in Europe. And for the moment, our treasuries look like gold ingots compared to the sovereign debt of the other supposedly stable places to invest in the world. This will make our politicians happy, because we need someone to buy our debt to keep the house of cards from falling. And the Chinese are gonna buy it and like it. It's symbiotic.

The dollar is strengthening because the rest of the world is starting to go to pot. What is happening right now is a curse AND a gift for the U.S. The question is how our banking overlords will use the opportunity--the gift part.

 

[novelist_wannabe]

Maybe someday they want to be a **** about it. It's not like it would be out of character.

If you're a U.S. poultry producer, someday is now.

 

[Herbert Anchovy]

Big, I defer to your knowledge. This isn't a typical parasite-host kind of relationship. Whatever it is, though, is getting harder to define and more disconcerting the more this goes on.

 

[BYH]

Who rigs every Oscar night? WE DO! WE DO!