Obama Negatives

[Michael_ Gee]

Since the law of supply and demand does work, economists believe that $5 gas is a point where demand destruction kicks in, people rapidly change their driving behaviors and prices fall again.
Once again, the American people, by blaming the President for any and all economic bad news, even when the bad news stems from good news (best way to have cheap gas would be 12 percent unemployment), are creating an incentive system SOME president is going to use to justify seizing total power. If people assume he or she has the powers of a despot, he or she will eventually say, I want the game as well as the name.

 

[Boom_70]

Just read several poli sci blogs citing research on the impact of gas prices on elections. Overall finding: By themselves, price increases have a relatively small negative effect on an incumbent's approval ratings and vote (the projection I saw was $4 gas would shave about .7 percent off Obama's total). BUT, as Boom's post indicates, rises in gas prices are often associated with other indications the world is going to hell which do seriously affect the incumbent.

$4 gas is one thing. If it gets over $5 people are going to freak the **** out.

Yeah at $5 people will be paying $40 more to fill up from where they were at beginning of year. That would cost a lot of
votes.

 

[steveu]

Gas was the centerpiece story in Sunday's Dallas Morning News... reporters did a good job illustrating the cost of higher gas in terms of other spending. Also, since Dallas/Fort Worth is such a huge metroplex, it talks about commutes and the pitfalls higher gas brings to a family's pocketbook.

This could be a big story. Most economists don't see gas going above $4 a gallon. I'm sure they mean average national price, but here in Michigan it's $3.99.

 

[Starman]

The GOP is the party of Big Oil and Wall Street speculators.

 

[Boom_70]

The GOP is the party of Big Oil and Wall Street speculators.

That's true but the average citizen does not realize how much The Koch Brothers are driving this price increase.

 

[YankeeFan]

Just read several poli sci blogs citing research on the impact of gas prices on elections. Overall finding: By themselves, price increases have a relatively small negative effect on an incumbent's approval ratings and vote (the projection I saw was $4 gas would shave about .7 percent off Obama's total). BUT, as Boom's post indicates, rises in gas prices are often associated with other indications the world is going to hell which do seriously affect the incumbent.

$4 gas is one thing. If it gets over $5 people are going to freak the **** out.

Yeah at $5 people will be paying $40 more to fill up from where they were at beginning of year. That would cost a lot of
votes.

Well, if we just cut the payroll taxes, that would give people... Oh, wait.

Maybe we'll cut the gas taxes. LOL. Like that would ever happen.

Gas taxes specifically fund road construction. They can't cut them. It's not like payroll taxes directly fund... Oh, wait.

 

[YankeeFan]

The trend is not good for our President:

Despite improving job growth and an extended Republican primary fight dividing his would-be opponents, President Obama is heading into the general election season on treacherous political ground, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

At a time of rising gas prices, heightened talk of war with Iran and setbacks in Afghanistan, Mr. Obama’s approval rating dropped substantially in recent weeks, the poll found, with 41 percent of respondents expressing approval of the job he is doing and 47 percent saying they disapprove — a dangerous position for any incumbent seeking re-election.

The poll provides a statistical reminder of how unsettled and unpredictable this year’s political landscape remains. Just one month ago, Mr. Obama reached a critical benchmark by winning approval from 50 percent of Times/CBS News poll respondents, his re-election prospects lifting along with confidence that the nation was finally emerging from the aftermath of the Great Recession.

Mr. Obama’s approval numbers measure his performance against expectations. But elections are choices between candidates, and on that score, he showed greater resilience in the poll.

In a hypothetical matchup against his most likely Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, Mr. Obama had a 47 percent to 44 percent advantage, a statistical dead heat given the poll’s margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points. Against Rick Santorum, the president drew 48 percent compared with 44 percent. In both cases, the difference between the candidates was slightly smaller than it was last month.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/us/politics/obama-approval-rating-down-in-new-york-times-cbs-poll.html?hp=&pagewanted=all

 

[Guy_Incognito]

This is mostly a waste of time and energy. This Far out, everyone wants it to be interesting, but I have very little doubt that Obama will be re-elected, and I don't think it will be all that close.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

If the situation is roughly the same as today, I kind of agree with you Guy. But I doubt Obama comes close to his win percentage of '08. About 51-51.5 percent is his ceiling. And events can and will change the equation -- one way or the other.

 

[Magic In The Night]

The biggest negative I can see is he hasn't been liberal enough. I regret that he started negotations for the health care bill basically in the middle and then went right. I think he did a good job with the stimulus and starting to get us out of illegal and costly (in deaths and dollars) wars. I think he needs to use the bully pulpit more and should be studying tapes of Clinton for lessons in doing so.

 

[YankeeFan]

The President is speaking live now about gas prices.

He knocks his opponents plan as being just, "if we drill more, prices will come down."

I'm not sure he can win this argument. And, I'm not sure it helps him to call more attention to it by giving a speech.

Ah, here comes the strawman argument portion of the speech.

 

[Boom_70]

The President is speaking live now about gas prices.

He knocks his opponents plan as being just, "if we drill more, prices will come down."

I'm not sure he can win this argument. And, I'm not sure it helps him to call more attention to it by giving a speech.

Ah, here comes the strawman argument portion of the speech.

He seems to think that ending "foreign dependency" will make prices come down. Does he realize that
oil prices are set based on West Texas crude futures price.

 

[YankeeFan]

The host on MSNBC just said, most Americans know the President really can't do anything about gas prices, that's up to the "speculators on Wall St." right now. He then suggested Attorney General Holder use his subpoena power to 'open an investigation".

Wow. The media is going to do all they can to protect the President on this issue.

 

[Baron Scicluna]

The President is speaking live now about gas prices.

He knocks his opponents plan as being just, "if we drill more, prices will come down."

I'm not sure he can win this argument. And, I'm not sure it helps him to call more attention to it by giving a speech.

Ah, here comes the strawman argument portion of the speech.

He seems to think that ending "foreign dependency" will make prices come down. Does he realize that
oil prices are set based on West Texas crude futures price.

West Texas is a foreign country. At least, until West Texas U. joins the Big East.

 

[heyabbott]

The host on MSNBC just said, most Americans know the President really can't do anything about gas prices, that's up to the "speculators on Wall St." right now. He then suggested Attorney General Holder use his subpoena power to 'open an investigation".

Wow. The media is going to do all they can to protect the President on this issue.

No, The Media won't. Some will attempt to put the oil prices in a larger context than simplistic, evangelical partisan U.S. politics and some will blame Obama directly for personally raising the cost of gas. And many will fall somewhere in the that spectrum.

But when the WSJ and FoxNews blame Obama for the setting Sun and praise Mitch McConnell for causing the Sun to rise, it's completely disingenious to argue that The Media is in the tank for Obama.

=

 

[Football_Bat]

When nothing happens in Iran and the speculatory bubble pops, it will be a glorious day for all Americans.