No S***, Sherlock! Next six years tough for papers

[Joe Williams]

From link on Romenesko site:

Prediction: The next six years will be tough for newspapers
American Journalism Review
According to Mark Potts' projections, total newspaper ad revenue will fall until 2012, stay flat in 2013 and then slowly turn around, as online growth equals and then surpasses the losses in print. However, Charles Layton believes Potts has overestimated the likely revenue gains from the Internet.

http://www.ajr.org/Article.asp?id=4517

More like the next 60 years are going to be tough for newspapers.

 

[fishwrapper]

Have you ever hit the alarm clock in the morning, swung those legs over the side of the bed, stretched those arms, opened your squinted-morning eyes and said?: "Today, I'm going to have a good day."

 

[Ben_Hecht]

From link on Romenesko site:

Prediction: The next six years will be tough for newspapers
American Journalism Review
According to Mark Potts' projections, total newspaper ad revenue will fall until 2012, stay flat in 2013 and then slowly turn around, as online growth equals and then surpasses the losses in print. However, Charles Layton believes Potts has overestimated the likely revenue gains from the Internet.

http://www.ajr.org/Article.asp?id=4517

More like the next 60 years are going to be tough for newspapers.

And for a lot of other people.

 

[pressmurphy]

Too many people inside the industry want to believe that a lot of newspapers' woes are tied to the economy in general. Well, we had a mildly robust economy from 2003 to mid-2007 but the newspaper industry continued its downward spiral anyway.

Face it, a ton of classifieds revenue has left print and won't be coming back. Ditto for display ads from department stores.

When we finally reach the point in time where online revenue gains offset print revenue losses, it's going to have more to do with the fact that we ran out of major ad segments that could deteriorate than it does with meaningful online gains.

Even now, some of the big players are seeing year-over-year online gains of 12-15 percent even though as recently as four years ago they were projecting 20-25 percent gains would be sustainable for a decade. Gannett has been doing its best to not report comparison-friendly online numbers in quarterly and annual reports for that very reason.

 

[Mystery_Meat]

The "Horse Wins Race" for AJR copy editors

 

[JayFarrar]

Have you ever hit the alarm clock in the morning, swung those legs over the side of the bed, stretched those arms, opened your squinted-morning eyes and said?: "Today, I'm going to have a good day."

I've come to love Joe Williams sunny optimism about the state of the newspaper business. Makes me happy.

 

[BrianGriffin]

Hell, this story is flat-out optimistic...it actually found someone who sees things "slowly turning around"

 

[fishwrapper]

Have you ever hit the alarm clock in the morning, swung those legs over the side of the bed, stretched those arms, opened your squinted-morning eyes and said?: "Today, I'm going to have a good day."

I've come to love Joe Williams sunny optimism about the state of the newspaper business. Makes me happy.

Joe Williams reminds me of a stand up act I saw ages ago...
Improv, Hollywood. Janeane Garofalo:

I guess I just prefer to see the dark side of things. The glass is always half- empty. And cracked. And I just cut my lip on it. And chipped a tooth.

 

[Joe Williams]

Thank you. Thank you very much. I'm here all week.

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

 

[Joe Williams]

What it comes down to, for me, is I have zero faith in the leadership in this industry. The owners are profit-mongers, the top newsroom brass are panicked, fearful for their jobs and largely incapable of deploying or devising "carrots" to get the best out of staffers and the department heads are panicked, fearful for their jobs and too willing to let the s*** run downhill while hardly ever -- in some cases, never -- fighting the good fight for the troops the way a sergeant is supposed to.

I have more faith in the hands-on journalists, the readers and even the advertisers than I do the nimrods running the show. Look where they've taken us so far.

 

[fishwrapper]

I know. We know. For the love of god, we all know.

 

[Joe Williams]

Then don't say I didn't warn you, fish. :D

 

[lono]

Newspapers are no longer run by people who know the value of news or give a rat's ass about serving their communities.

Editors used to spend time figuring out how to get great stories in their papers.

Now they count paper clips, go to meetings and launch meaningless initiatives that everyone knows will be replaced by new, even more pointless initatives in six months.

The Internet would have been tough on newspapers anyway; the lack of newspeople at newspapers has accelerated the process.

 

[Joe Williams]

Newspapers are no longer run by people who know the value of news or give a rat's ass about serving their communities.

Editors used to spend time figuring out how to get great stories in their papers.

Now they count clicks on an Internet page as proof of the story's or the beat's or the writer's value paper clips, go to meetings and launch meaningless initiatives that everyone knows will be replaced by new, even more pointless initatives in six months.

The Internet would have been tough on newspapers anyway; the lack of newspeople at newspapers has accelerated the process.

Fixed. And that's just one of the very scary trends as these puddin' heads step into the new media world, thinking their first frantic draft of answers are the real answers.

 

[BrianGriffin]

Newspapers are no longer run by people who know the value of news or give a rat's ass about serving their communities.

Editors used to spend time figuring out how to get great stories in their papers.

Now they count clicks on an Internet page as proof of the story's or the beat's or the writer's value paper clips, go to meetings and launch meaningless initiatives that everyone knows will be replaced by new, even more pointless initatives in six months.

The Internet would have been tough on newspapers anyway; the lack of newspeople at newspapers has accelerated the process.

Fixed. And that's just one of the very scary trends as these puddin' heads step into the new media world, thinking their first frantic draft of answers are the real answers.

"thinking their first frantic draft of answers are the real answers," expresses my fears about the whole internet thing as our paper moves forward with it. Right now, we've got people running amuck with video cameras and wanting to order all kinds of technology and doing this and doing that.

To me, as a paper that has largely sat on the sidelines while the rest of the industry jumped in with two feet, we have a chance to really look around and see what's working and what's not. We have a chance to be very methodical and learn from the trial and error that has already happened in the industry. I'm afraid, though, that cooler heads won't prevail and we'll just dive in all willy nilly with random video, counting pages without knowing what the numbers mean, etc., etc.

We have a chance to be like Tim Duncan. Our lack of growing up with the game can keep us from picking up the bad habits that most players pick up. We can be the "big fundamental," ha.

 

[lono]

Newspapers are no longer run by people who know the value of news or give a rat's ass about serving their communities.

Editors used to spend time figuring out how to get great stories in their papers.

Now they count clicks on an Internet page as proof of the story's or the beat's or the writer's value paper clips, go to meetings and launch meaningless initiatives that everyone knows will be replaced by new, even more pointless initatives in six months.

The Internet would have been tough on newspapers anyway; the lack of newspeople at newspapers has accelerated the process.

Fixed. And that's just one of the very scary trends as these puddin' heads step into the new media world, thinking their first frantic draft of answers are the real answers.

"thinking their first frantic draft of answers are the real answers," expresses my fears about the whole internet thing as our paper moves forward with it. Right now, we've got people running amuck with video cameras and wanting to order all kinds of technology and doing this and doing that.

To me, as a paper that has largely sat on the sidelines while the rest of the industry jumped in with two feet, we have a chance to really look around and see what's working and what's not. We have a chance to be very methodical and learn from the trial and error that has already happened in the industry. I'm afraid, though, that cooler heads won't prevail and we'll just dive in all willy nilly with random video, counting pages without knowing what the numbers mean, etc., etc.

We have a chance to be like Tim Duncan.

But the f

Newspapers are no longer run by people who know the value of news or give a rat's ass about serving their communities.

Editors used to spend time figuring out how to get great stories in their papers.

Now they count clicks on an Internet page as proof of the story's or the beat's or the writer's value paper clips, go to meetings and launch meaningless initiatives that everyone knows will be replaced by new, even more pointless initatives in six months.

The Internet would have been tough on newspapers anyway; the lack of newspeople at newspapers has accelerated the process.

Fixed. And that's just one of the very scary trends as these puddin' heads step into the new media world, thinking their first frantic draft of answers are the real answers.

"thinking their first frantic draft of answers are the real answers," expresses my fears about the whole internet thing as our paper moves forward with it. Right now, we've got people running amuck with video cameras and wanting to order all kinds of technology and doing this and doing that.

To me, as a paper that has largely sat on the sidelines while the rest of the industry jumped in with two feet, we have a chance to really look around and see what's working and what's not. We have a chance to be very methodical and learn from the trial and error that has already happened in the industry. I'm afraid, though, that cooler heads won't prevail and we'll just dive in all willy nilly with random video, counting pages without knowing what the numbers mean, etc., etc.

We have a chance to be like Tim Duncan. Our lack of growing up with the game can keep us from picking up the bad habits that most players pick up. We can be the "big fundamental," ha.

If you don't wind up being Kwame Brown first.

 

[BrianGriffin]

Newspapers are no longer run by people who know the value of news or give a rat's ass about serving their communities.

Editors used to spend time figuring out how to get great stories in their papers.

Now they count clicks on an Internet page as proof of the story's or the beat's or the writer's value paper clips, go to meetings and launch meaningless initiatives that everyone knows will be replaced by new, even more pointless initatives in six months.

The Internet would have been tough on newspapers anyway; the lack of newspeople at newspapers has accelerated the process.

Fixed. And that's just one of the very scary trends as these puddin' heads step into the new media world, thinking their first frantic draft of answers are the real answers.

"thinking their first frantic draft of answers are the real answers," expresses my fears about the whole internet thing as our paper moves forward with it. Right now, we've got people running amuck with video cameras and wanting to order all kinds of technology and doing this and doing that.

To me, as a paper that has largely sat on the sidelines while the rest of the industry jumped in with two feet, we have a chance to really look around and see what's working and what's not. We have a chance to be very methodical and learn from the trial and error that has already happened in the industry. I'm afraid, though, that cooler heads won't prevail and we'll just dive in all willy nilly with random video, counting pages without knowing what the numbers mean, etc., etc.

We have a chance to be like Tim Duncan.

But the f

Newspapers are no longer run by people who know the value of news or give a rat's ass about serving their communities.

Editors used to spend time figuring out how to get great stories in their papers.

Now they count clicks on an Internet page as proof of the story's or the beat's or the writer's value paper clips, go to meetings and launch meaningless initiatives that everyone knows will be replaced by new, even more pointless initatives in six months.

The Internet would have been tough on newspapers anyway; the lack of newspeople at newspapers has accelerated the process.

Fixed. And that's just one of the very scary trends as these puddin' heads step into the new media world, thinking their first frantic draft of answers are the real answers.

"thinking their first frantic draft of answers are the real answers," expresses my fears about the whole internet thing as our paper moves forward with it. Right now, we've got people running amuck with video cameras and wanting to order all kinds of technology and doing this and doing that.

To me, as a paper that has largely sat on the sidelines while the rest of the industry jumped in with two feet, we have a chance to really look around and see what's working and what's not. We have a chance to be very methodical and learn from the trial and error that has already happened in the industry. I'm afraid, though, that cooler heads won't prevail and we'll just dive in all willy nilly with random video, counting pages without knowing what the numbers mean, etc., etc.

We have a chance to be like Tim Duncan. Our lack of growing up with the game can keep us from picking up the bad habits that most players pick up. We can be the "big fundamental," ha.

If you don't wind up being Kwame Brown first.

We're already there, brother. Believe me, our Website is the Kwame Brown of newspaper Websites...

We're just trying to figure out a way to trade Kwame for Timmy...

 

[KevinmH9]

I'm finding myself becoming increasingly more worried about this situation. As a recent college graduate, I don't know if I stand a chance in this business if the industry is just going under slowly but surely.

...And I could just be overreacting. ::)