K-Rod ties saves record

[TheSportsPredictor]

In case you missed it.

Let's see, with 16 games left, you'd figured 60's a lock. Based on his current rate of a save every 2.56 games, he should wind up with 63.

 

[buckweaver]

I think most of us would have figured Thigpen's record would be long gone, by now. I think a little appreciation for that mark is overdue.

Bobby Thigpen, 1990:
4-6, 1.83 ERA, 77 G, 57 SV, 88.7 IP, 60 H, 20 R, 18 ER, 32 BB, 70 K, 1.038 WHIP, 210 ERA+

Fifth in the MVP voting, fourth in CYA. Pretty memorable season.

 

[Oz]

Congrats, K-Rod. You're still only the fifth-best closer (behind Nathan, Rivera, Soria and Papelbon) in the AL this season. But congrats nevertheless.

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

K-Rod will get the record, but Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon are having better seasons. Maybe even Joe Nathan. And Joakim Soria. Put any of them on this year's Angels, they get the record.

 

[buckweaver]

Congrats, K-Rod. You're still only the fifth-best closer (behind Nathan, Rivera, Soria and Papelbon) in the AL this season. But congrats nevertheless.

You're absolutely right. Just as Thigpen wasn't the best closer in the AL in 1990, either. (In fact, Eckersley's 1990 season might be the best ever, among closers.)

But K-Rod will still get the record. Congrats to him.

And I don't think it's fair to say "put anybody else on this Angels team and they'd break the record, too." The Red Sox and Twins have won a pretty damn high number of ballgames, too, but Papelbon and Nathan are nowhere close. It's a matter of circumstances and opportunity, and we have no idea what would happen if anybody else were on one ballclub or another.

 

[Freelance Hack]

I think most of us would have figured Thigpen's record would be long gone, by now. I think a little appreciation for that mark is overdue.

Bobby Thigpen, 1990:
4-6, 1.83 ERA, 77 G, 57 SV, 88.7 IP, 60 H, 20 R, 18 ER, 32 BB, 70 K, 1.038 WHIP, 210 ERA+

Fifth in the MVP voting, fourth in CYA. Pretty memorable season.

57 saves in 1990
54 saves for the rest of his career

 

[Angola!]

I think most of us would have figured Thigpen's record would be long gone, by now. I think a little appreciation for that mark is overdue.

Bobby Thigpen, 1990:
4-6, 1.83 ERA, 77 G, 57 SV, 88.7 IP, 60 H, 20 R, 18 ER, 32 BB, 70 K, 1.038 WHIP, 210 ERA+

Fifth in the MVP voting, fourth in CYA. Pretty memorable season.

Wow, I'm shocked at how low his strikeout to walk ratio is. Plus, I just figured he'd have more strikeouts.

 

[friend of a friend]

What will K-Rod change his number to next year?

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

And I don't think it's fair to say "put anybody else on this Angels team and they'd break the record, too."

No, not anyone. But, c'mon, put one of those top guys on this year's Angels, keep everything else the same, and they wouldn't have done the same thing with 60+ save chances? Rivera'd already have 60 saves!

 

[buckweaver]

Anyway, here's a pretty honest assessment of K-Rod's season:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8060

Rodriguez's pursuit of the saves mark is comparable to Ichiro Suzuki's setting the record for hits in a season. ... The record is Ichiro's to keep, but it occurred thanks to greater opportunity than any player who came before.

<snip>

Rodriguez has had 62 save opportunities this season, the second-highest total of all time, three behind Thigpen's mark of 65 set in '90. Just three other relievers—John Smoltz in 2000 (55/59), Rod Beck in 1998 (51/58) and Randy Myers in 1993 (53/59) have ever had enough opportunities to break Thigpen's record.

<snip>

The Angels have created a perfect storm for save situations. Sixty-two of the Angels' 88 wins have come by three runs or fewer, a 70 percent rate that compares nicely to Thigpen's White Sox, who had 74 percent of their 94 wins come in the "save range." That is why Rodriguez is in line to make history.

 

[Freelance Hack]

Notice I did not say "pretty memorable career," FH.

It's one of those statistical outlier seasons, where someone just performs way beyond their norm.

I originally thought Thigpen may have been overused in 1990, but while he pitched in more games in that season compared to the rest of his career, it was only his third-highest innings pitched season.

 

[Rumpleforeskin]

K-Rod has had 62 save opportunities and the next closest is Nathan with 42. Wow.

Where does K-Rod finish in the Cy Young voting? I would guess right around where Thigpen did.

 

[buckweaver]

And I don't think it's fair to say "put anybody else on this Angels team and they'd break the record, too."

No, not anyone. But, c'mon, put one of those top guys on this year's Angels, keep everything else the same, and they wouldn't have done the same thing with 60+ save chances? Rivera'd already have 60 saves!

BP's Joe Sheehan agrees with you, for what it's worth. But he (and you) are using the same flawed logic that rankles a lot of baseball observers about the sabermetric crowd:

It assumes these numbers exist in a vacuum.

No one can say that Rivera would have 60 saves as the Angels' closer, because we have no idea what the dynamic of the team would be like. Perhaps the offense would feel much more comfortable with Mo in the back of the bullpen -- as the Yankees probably do -- and would score more runs, thereby limiting his save opportunities. Does that make him a lesser closer? Of course not.

Truth is, we have no idea what Rivera or Papelbon or Nathan or Soria would do as the Angels' closer this year. So it makes no sense to assume their numbers would be the same as K-Rod's, given the same circumstances. There's no such thing as the "same" circumstances. A butterfly flaps its wings in Beijing, and all that jazz.

 

[Freelance Hack]

Anyway, here's a pretty honest assessment of K-Rod's season:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8060

Rodriguez's pursuit of the saves mark is comparable to Ichiro Suzuki's setting the record for hits in a season. ... The record is Ichiro's to keep, but it occurred thanks to greater opportunity than any player who came before.

<snip>

Rodriguez has had 62 save opportunities this season, the second-highest total of all time, three behind Thigpen's mark of 65 set in '90. Just three other relievers—John Smoltz in 2000 (55/59), Rod Beck in 1998 (51/58) and Randy Myers in 1993 (53/59) have ever had enough opportunities to break Thigpen's record.

<snip>

The Angels have created a perfect storm for save situations. Sixty-two of the Angels' 88 wins have come by three runs or fewer, a 70 percent rate that compares nicely to Thigpen's White Sox, who had 74 percent of their 94 wins come in the "save range." That is why Rodriguez is in line to make history.

Not quite sure it's fair to compare this to Ichiro's record. The average starting batter will get about 4 plate appearances a game. Save opportunities are much more random than that.

 

[buckweaver]

K-Rod has had 62 save opportunities and the next closest is Nathan with 42. Wow.

Where does K-Rod finish in the Cy Young voting? I would guess right around where Thigpen did.

Well, I hope not. As Oz and TSP said, he's not even the fourth-best closer in the league this year, let alone the fourth-best pitcher.

Maybe he finishes top 10 in CYA. Maybe. But between Cliff Lee, Halladay, the four other closers, and probably even Dice-K, that puts K-Rod eighth right off the bat.

 

[Angola!]

Congrats, K-Rod. You're still only the fifth-best closer (behind Nathan, Rivera, Soria and Papelbon) in the AL this season. But congrats nevertheless.

You're absolutely right. Just as Thigpen wasn't the best closer in the AL in 1990, either. (In fact, Eckersley's 1990 season might be the best ever, among closers.)

Damn, you weren't lying about Eck's 1990 season:

63 G, 73 1/3 IP, 41 H, 9 R, 5 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 73 K, 48 S

Those strikeout to walk numbers are ridiculous.

 

[friend of a friend]

I agree that the other closers mentioned have been more effective, but do you really think they'll finish higher in the Cy Young voting than someone who ends up with -- say -- 63 saves?

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

K-Rod has had 62 save opportunities and the next closest is Nathan with 42. Wow.

Where does K-Rod finish in the Cy Young voting? I would guess right around where Thigpen did.

Speaking of, if anyone -- ANYONE, including K-Rod's mother -- votes for someone other than Cliff Lee to win the Cy Young, they should be instantly banished from press boxes. It's simply not close. Most wins, least losses (tied), lowest ERA, second-most innings, tied for third-fewest walks. And all for a ****ty team. He has dominated like a 14-year-old Danny Almonte against real Little Leaguers.

 

[Freelance Hack]

I agree that the other closers mentioned have been more effective, but do you really think they'll finish higher in the Cy Young voting than someone who ends up with -- say -- 63 saves?

The Cy Young doesn't always go to the pitcher with the most wins.

 

[a_rosenthal]

And I don't think it's fair to say "put anybody else on this Angels team and they'd break the record, too."

No, not anyone. But, c'mon, put one of those top guys on this year's Angels, keep everything else the same, and they wouldn't have done the same thing with 60+ save chances? Rivera'd already have 60 saves!

BP's Joe Sheehan agrees with you, for what it's worth. But he (and you) are using the same flawed logic that rankles a lot of baseball observers about the sabermetric crowd:

It assumes these numbers exist in a vacuum.

No one can say that Rivera would have 60 saves as the Angels' closer, because we have no idea what the dynamic of the team would be like. Perhaps the offense would feel much more comfortable with Mo in the back of the bullpen -- as the Yankees probably do -- and would score more runs, thereby limiting his save opportunities. Does that make him a lesser closer? Of course not.

Truth is, we have no idea what Rivera or Papelbon or Nathan or Soria would do as the Angels' closer this year. So it makes no sense to assume their numbers would be the same as K-Rod's, given the same circumstances. There's no such thing as the "same" circumstances. A butterfly flaps its wings in Beijing, and all that jazz.

I think that's a pretty big leap of logic there. We're talking about a team that uses its closer almost exclusively in save situations for one inning at a time. It's safe to say, those situations would have been the same for Rivera, Papelbon or Soria. Considering that the Angels will likely provide Rodriguez with about 65-67 save opportunities, I'd say it's pretty fair to assume that another closer -- who doesn't affect anything but the final three outs of a game -- would likely have had a very similar number of opportunities.

You can't plug in someone like Teixeira's numbers into a Yankees lineup and assume they'd be identical. But a guy who affects only the final three outs? Pretty I feel comfortable thinking someone else would have had roughly the same number of chances at getting those final three outs.