Felix the Cat Five ...

[Football_Bat]

... getting stronger by the hour.

 

[Football_Bat]

Re: Felix the Cat Two ...

The UKMET model has this thing skirting a little north, which makes me wary. Hard to judge how far north without South Padre in the picture.

But what the hell do Brits know about weather other than it sucks all the time? ;D

That damn CLP5 model must have a hard-on for Houston:

 

[Mystery_Meat]

Re: Felix the Cat Two ...

Looking like Dean and taking a similar path (albeit a bit further south) through the Carribean. Winds at 125 mph now, but aircraft have found stronger winds and it'll almost certainly be a Category 4 storm during the next advisory coming out in the next hour.

Probably not a U.S. threat, but you Gulf Coasters should be paying attention.

 

[Moderator1]

Re: Felix the Cat Two ...

How many threads we need on this?

 

[Mystery_Meat]

Re: Felix the Cat Two ...

Eight?

 

[Moderator1]

Re: Felix the Cat Two ...

Well, we're almost there.

 

[Mystery_Meat]

Re: Felix the Cat Two ...

CLP5's a joke, or at least it has been this year.

Big issue is same as Dean -- does the trough in the GOM move out of the way quickly enough to allow high pressure to ridge in, thus keeping the storm at bay (of Campeche)? Probably, which is why most of the models have a Dean-like track. The more it moves north, of course, the worse for the U.S., though it's going to have to take a sharp turn shoot the Yucatan Channel and head into the Gulf unscathed.

5 p.m. advisory will have winds in the 135-140 range, if the NOAA plane measurements are accurate.

 

[Mystery_Meat]

Re: Felix the Cat Two ...

Go ahead and kill the thread. I didn't see the other one or I would have used that one. But you know that. I think.

 

[Football_Bat]

Re: Felix the Cat Four ...

Where's the other thread? I looked for it and couldn't find it.

 

[deskslave]

Re: Felix the Cat Four ...

Maybe it got killed instead. Title needs changing already: It's up to Cat 5. They're growing quick this year.

 

[Mystery_Meat]

Re: Felix the Cat Four ...

165 mph, could be a conservative estimate, and the NOAA plane that went to measure it isn't coming back because of too much turbulence and groupel (ice).

Only two hurricanes this year, and both are monsters.

 

[Football_Bat]

Thread title updated.

Holy crap! It's even scarier-looking than Dean.

Perfectly symmetrical, over open water unchurned by Dean.

TWC says what path Felix takes depends on the high-pressure ridge over the Eastern Seaboard. If it retreats, and it may since the pattern is changing, Felix could have a go at South Texas, but it's too soon to tell. Thankfully it'll shoot its wad on the Yucatan first.

 

[Fenian_Bastard]

The only hurricane thread we need comes from Mr. Bat, Stormbringer.

 

[Mystery_Meat]

No major updates on the 11 p.m. advisory -- winds at 165 still, pressure down to 930 mb. Next plane is heading out there at 2 a.m. EDT. God knows what they'll find at that point.

 

[Mystery_Meat]

One bit of good news (for Texicans, that is): Forecast track seems to have snuck south. Bad news for Belize and Honduras.

 

[Football_Bat]

Massive spaghetti confusion. Could land anywhere from northern Costa Rica to Brownsville.

Probably a reflection of the different models taking a wild ass guess computing where the upper-level systems will be over the southern U.S.

 

[pressboxer]

So if it crosses into the Pacific, does it regain strength and have a go at Acapulco?

 

[Hustle]

This thing caught me off-guard. I remember hearing about the new hurricane out there. I look away for a day and all of a sudden it's blown up to C5.

And, just to update, the intermediate advisory says winds are the same. Interesting note in there that while the storm is a monster, hurricane-force winds extend only 30 miles from the eye, tropical storm winds 115 miles. With any luck, perhaps the worst damage is localized (though it still sucks for those people that get slammed).

 

[Johnny Dangerously]

Major drop in barometric pressure in a short period of time. The Weather Channel reports this morning that Felix's pressure plummeted 30 millibars in six hours, third-largest drop (in that time span) in recorded history. Wilma (2005) dropped 54 mb in six hours.

Over 12 hours, Felix is second, behind only Wilma.

 

[Mystery_Meat]

So if it crosses into the Pacific, does it regain strength and have a go at Acapulco?

Not likely. Mexico's terrain is mountainous enough to rip apart almost all storms crossing through. It's not unprecedented for an Atlantic storm to cross into the Pacific, but it usually makes its passage over Central America.

The reminants of Dean had a chance at redeveloping in the Pacific, but didn't.