Facebook IPO

[ColdCat]

Heard on the radio that Zuckerberg was doing the IPO road shows in a hoodie. Hopefully George Zimmerman won't think he's a thug and shoot him.

 

[nmmetsfan]

The market is so hot for Facebook right now, so people who already bought in the secondary market appear to already be underwater if the IPO is valued at $90B. This has all the signs of a huge fail (longterm.)

I think it's safe to say Facebook has already peaked. I'm sure those within the company have the numbers to back up my theory, which is why they're going public now. I'd be surprised if in five years Facebook is even close to what it is now. For one, the Timeline idea is absolutely dreadful.

Facebook has approximately 901 million active monthly users each user made Facebook about $4.34 in ad revenue last year. If you don't want to be part of the company that's involved with that - I'd like to see a better reason than "timeline is dreadful."

I wish I was able to buy this stock. I'm sure I won't be able to. Thankfully, one of my mutual funds will have Facebook stock in it as of May 18. I had to purchase that more than a year ago though.

I didn't say it was worthless, or even a bad investment. I'm just speculating that it's best days are behind it and I'm not sure the value will be much higher than it is right now. I know it can't be a good thing that they keep alienating users by making changes that most don't want.

What they do have going for them is the jumpstart on any potential competition, as there is no other social media that's even close when it comes to contacting people from your past or sharing info with family and friends, etc.

 

[Chef2]

What was Google's IPO at?

 

[bigpern23]

So is anyone planning to take the plunge with the Facebook IPO at 11 a.m. eastern?

It's going to start at $38 per share. I had read previously that it would be all but impossible for regular folks to buy in at the initial offering, but now I'm reading that you can buy on TD Ameritrade and I've seen a few Facebook updates from friends who have submitted orders to purchase some shares, and these aren't Wall Street mavens.

I'm starting to wish I had considered it more and did some research into the value, or lack thereof, of purchasing some shares.

 

[User 11148]

I know squat about IPOs, but isn't it the case that you can't just flip shares bought today? I mean, don't you have to hold them for some (relatively) substantial period of time?

 

[bigpern23]

WSportsJournalists.com -- not to be confused with SportsJournalists.com -- says it expects there to be a lot of flipping during the first 30-60 minutes, so I guess there's no restriction.

 

[User 11148]

More evidence that I know squat about IPOs ... :)

 

[bigpern23]

Haha. :)

Trading delayed because of problems with NASDAQ's queue.

 

[Sic semper tyrannis]

U2's Bono reportedely stands to make about $1.5 billion on his investment group's $90 million investment three years ago.

 

[NoOneLikesUs]

So is anyone planning to take the plunge with the Facebook IPO at 11 a.m. eastern?

Take the plunge seems to be about the right term.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Went up 13 percent right away but now is back at the opening price of $38.

 

[Bob Cook]

So much for my prediction for how fast it'll pop. It went up to $43 initially, but slid a little bit. That means, for once, a tech company got its IPO priced right, and the maximum gains aren't going to underwriters who held down the price hoping for a gaudy-looking pop.

 

[The Big Ragu]

You can't put any stock into how a big-name IPO like this trades in the first few days. Demand, or lack of demand, can be based on hype. Eventually it will settle into its place.

A few reasons why I would never touch this: Although, I don't touch any equities. ... 1) At the IPO valuation, it is trading at more than 20 times revenue. When Yahoo! went public (albeit at a less developed stage), it traded at a much smaller multiple than that. I want to say 3 times, but it may have been higher. In any case, that is a huge premium for a stock that you are buying based on potential of monetizing its 900 billion users -- not anything it has already done to derive revenue from those users. 2) Along those lines, I don't think Facebook is MySpace or anything like that. In the Internet space, you now have Google, Microsoft, Yahoo! (which is sinking) and Facebook firmly entrenched as the big boys. But in order for Facebook to be worth these valuations, it is going to have to sell an advertising model. And intuitively (although my instincts are frequently wrong about things like this), I wonder if they are going to **** off people and jeopardize the numbers they have -- their selling point. When you do a Google search, it is kind of natural when ads pop up. You searched for a restaurant, so it doesn't seem all that strange when some sponsored ads with restaurants pop up on the side of the screen. Facebook? People don't go on there seeking info. They go on there to communicate with friends. If that thing gets ad heavy, and it is done in a clumsy way, will it stick out like such a sore thumb that people will be turned off? To me that is the $1 million question.

I'm not willing to bet on something at that high a valuation based on potential. But all the power to anyone who is.

 

[LongTimeListener]

And I was just going to post that this is the new Google. Damn you Ragu and your historical facts! :)

 

[TigerVols]

The only thing that interests me less than #Kardashian is #FBIPO. Hipster millionaires? Bleh.

 

[Brian]

U2's Bono reportedely stands to make about $1.5 billion on his investment group's $90 million investment three years ago.

One man will now control the world's supply of cowboy hats, yellow-framed sunglasses and smugness.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Ragu, the advertising trades I read in my day job all are consumed with ferocious debate on whether Facebook users will accept lots of advertising or not. They're the alleged experts, and they don't know. So I think I'll keep my money in my pocket here. Also, the social media space is getting crowded with very popular companies, Twitter, Pinterest, etc. Who's to say one of them doesn't figure out the advertising model before Zuckerberg does?

 

[Stitch]

Why did MySpace fail? Was it the gaudy design, coupled with Facebook's slim design at the time?

 

[Brian]

Why did MySpace fail? Was it the gaudy design, coupled with Facebook's slim design at the time?

That and Facebook had a news feed, which MySpace took years to adopt. That changed it from something you checked once a day to something you checked 100 times a day. And don't underestimate how ubiquitous Farmville was at one point.

I was reading this on Longform.org a few weeks ago. it's a pretty good summation of what went wrong.
http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USTRE7364G420110407

 

[Mystery Meat II]

IPO? More like I PO'd that I bought this ****ty stock!

(ha ha, just kidding, i have no money)