Facebook admits defeat

[Dick Whitman]

Another 10 years (meaning 20 total) would be one hell of a run for any website.

I don't think of it as a Web site any more. Its peers are not Pets.com or MySpace. Its peers are Apple and Google and IBM.

That's a tough one... If they're not putting out an actual product, it's hard to lump them with IBM and Apple... Google maybe...

You are using a very dated notion of a "product."

Instagram is a product. What's App is a product.

When I compare Facebook to IBM and Apple, what I mean is that it will likely not be confined to a signature single product, but rather morph into a general tech/computing company that is constantly changing what it actually does.

 

[joe king]

Please dude, it's like an Oprah hour most days.
Everyone has their problems, but on Facebook it's all anyone seems to want to talk about.

I always thought everyone on Facebook was trying to make themselves seem perfect.

 

[LongTimeListener]

But what if an outlier like T-Mobile or a newcomer changed that and offered a $50 unlimited plan where your calls go through What's App and texts too? You just pay for the data.

This could happen.

Except the part about sending it through WhatsApp, that's already happening.

 

[3_Octave_Fart]

Another 10 years (meaning 20 total) would be one hell of a run for any website.

I don't think of it as a Web site any more. Its peers are not Pets.com or MySpace. Its peers are Apple and Google and IBM.

That's a tough one... If they're not putting out an actual product, it's hard to lump them with IBM and Apple... Google maybe...

You are using a very dated notion of a "product."

Instagram is a product. What's App is a product.

When I compare Facebook to IBM and Apple, what I mean is that it will likely not be confined to a signature single product, but rather morph into a general tech/computing company that is constantly changing what it actually does.

That's what happens a year after stock craters under $20.
More time and care is being invested per unit of intellectual content.
Zuck knows how vapid and stale his original model has become.

 

[3_Octave_Fart]

Please dude, it's like an Oprah hour most days.
Everyone has their problems, but on Facebook it's all anyone seems to want to talk about.

I always thought everyone on Facebook was trying to make themselves seem perfect.

It's a fair ratio.
Facebook needs narcissistic people to stay viable.
Luckily we have great stores of that in this country.

 

[playthrough]

Please dude, it's like an Oprah hour most days.
Everyone has their problems, but on Facebook it's all anyone seems to want to talk about.

I always thought everyone on Facebook was trying to make themselves seem perfect.

It's a fair ratio.
Facebook needs narcissistic people to stay viable.
Luckily we have great stores of that in this country.

I'll have a comment about this as soon as I post a picture to FB of my feet on a beach chair with the ocean in the background.

 

[3_Octave_Fart]

Oh, Fart has a thang for well-manicured feet, now.

 

[playthrough]

Then you'd want no part of mine.

 

[joe king]

Oh, Fart has a thang for well-manicured feet, now.

Is that you, Rex?

 

[DeskMonkey1]

I originally joined Facebook in college back in 2004 or 2005 and left a bit later after my college classmates were acting like high school classmates (including making a parody account of me).

I rejoined in January of 2010, mainly to monitor the photos my mother was posting of my then-infant daughter. Still paranoid about the horror stories of Facebook activity coming back to harm people at work and other places, I initially only posted links to our paper's site and an occasional very vanilla post ("cooking red beans and rice" "took the kid to the beach")

Over time I have reconnected with old friends and stayed in touch with friends who moved on and I still use it as a medium to show pictures of the kids to friends and family. My friends list is still under 90 and my posts are still primarily vanilla but Facebook has made it so much easier to communicate with multiple people in multiple locations that I know I would lose touch with most of them if I deleted my page. (In fact, I lament losing occasional contact with one friend who did cancel his page).

I suspect there are many folks who use it in similar ways that I used it therefore I don't see it going away anytime soon

 

[Huggy]

Please dude, it's like an Oprah hour most days.
Everyone has their problems, but on Facebook it's all anyone seems to want to talk about.

I always thought everyone on Facebook was trying to make themselves seem perfect.

It's a fair ratio.
Facebook needs narcissistic people to stay viable.
Luckily we have great stores of that in this country.

I'll have a comment about this as soon as I post a picture to FB of my feet on a beach chair with the ocean in the background.

Outing alert: playthrough is my cousin's husband because that is exactly what his profile picture is.

 

[TigerVols]

I pretty much make my living via FB these days, and as I've gotten to better understand the ins-and-outs of it as a tool for use by business, all I can say is...

...it's got a helluva future.

We can spend $10K on a targeted FB ad and get fantastic, quantifiable results that are 50X what we spent. It's proven to be far more efficient than print, radio, TV and especially any other social platform.

I'd run from Twitter stock; but I'd encourage you all to continue to drive down FB stock, so that I can buy more of it. FB is here for the long haul.

 

[Starman]

Hopefully this isn't a d_b.
Facebook announced it is getting out of the e-mail business because nobody used its e-mail service.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/alltechconsidered/2014/02/25/282535068/facebook-shutters-its-email-service-since-no-one-used-it

I don't think FB ever made any particular effort to get people to use its email service -- in fact it more or less forces you to use somebody else's for your registraion email addy.

 

[3_Octave_Fart]

I pretty much make my living via FB these days, and as I've gotten to better understand the ins-and-outs of it as a tool for use by business, all I can say is...

...it's got a helluva future.

We can spend $10K on a targeted FB ad and get fantastic, quantifiable results that are 50X what we spent. It's proven to be far more efficient than print, radio, TV and especially any other social platform.

I'd run from Twitter stock; but I'd encourage you all to continue to drive down FB stock, so that I can buy more of it. FB is here for the long haul.

Agreed.
Look at who was investing with Facebook before the IPO.
Lockheed and other bigtime military contractors. Golly gee.
See where I'm going with this? (No politics edict.)
Zuck is a weasel but he's not stupid.
He has something up his sleeve.

 

[poindexter]

I pretty much make my living via FB these days, and as I've gotten to better understand the ins-and-outs of it as a tool for use by business, all I can say is...

...it's got a helluva future.

We can spend $10K on a targeted FB ad and get fantastic, quantifiable results that are 50X what we spent. It's proven to be far more efficient than print, radio, TV and especially any other social platform.

I'd run from Twitter stock; but I'd encourage you all to continue to drive down FB stock, so that I can buy more of it. FB is here for the long haul.

Interesting.

The ability for micro-businesses, or charity functions, etc to advertise with facebook is incredible. And it is FREE.

My sister and her husband run a business where they sell thru a farmer's market. She uses fb for tons of advertising. Free advertising.

It is such a valuable tool for small businesses (and perhaps large as well).

 

[The Big Ragu]

Nobody has been driving down Facebook's stock. ... it is trading near all-time highs and has been on an insane run.

The issue that anyone might have with FB is that it is really expensive. Really, really, really expensive. It trades at a P/E ratio of 116.

That is a super-expensive valuation for any stock. Back of the matchbook math says that to reach that kind of achieved value, on $70 a share, Facebook needs to grow its net-operating profit by 23 percent a year compounded annually for the next decade.

I wouldn't think that is very likely, even though it certainly could happen. Or, consequently, the stock might continue to trade indefinitely at a valuation that is in the stratosphere, in which case it wouldn't matter if the company grows at that crazy rate.

You might think that Facebook has great growth potential, but if you own that stock for fundamental reasons, you have to really believe that whatever potential you think it has isn't already priced into the stock and then some. And if you believe that, you are banking on crazy growth year over year for a long period of time.

 

[Liut]

I rejoined in January of 2010, mainly to monitor the photos my mother was posting of my then-infant daughter. Still paranoid about the horror stories of Facebook activity coming back to harm people at work and other places, I initially only posted links to our paper's site and an occasional very vanilla post ("cooking red beans and rice" "took the kid to the beach")

Over time I have reconnected with old friends and stayed in touch with friends who moved on and I still use it as a medium to show pictures of the kids to friends and family. My friends list is still under 90 and my posts are still primarily vanilla but Facebook has made it so much easier to communicate with multiple people in multiple locations that I know I would lose touch with most of them if I deleted my page. (In fact, I lament losing occasional contact with one friend who did cancel his page).

I suspect there are many folks who use it in similar ways that I used it therefore I don't see it going away anytime soon

You've described me, DM1.

I've been able to pretty much maintain a friends list interested in civility. Dropped one democrat who liked to rant politics, dropped a republican for the same reason, and divested of a third individual who kept incessantly posting pictures of everything.

For the most part, FB has been a pleasant experience for reasons you stated above.

 

[93Devil]

Another 10 years (meaning 20 total) would be one hell of a run for any website.

I don't think of it as a Web site any more. Its peers are not Pets.com or MySpace. Its peers are Apple and Google and IBM.

That's a tough one... If they're not putting out an actual product, it's hard to lump them with IBM and Apple... Google maybe...

You are using a very dated notion of a "product."

Instagram is a product. What's App is a product.

When I compare Facebook to IBM and Apple, what I mean is that it will likely not be confined to a signature single product, but rather morph into a general tech/computing company that is constantly changing what it actually does.

Then what's a service?

 

[britwrit]

I'm sure I'm not a nice person but knowing that the girl who dumped me sophomore year is now middle-aged and frumpy makes Facebook priceless.

 

[Riptide]

I'm sure I'm not a nice person but knowing that the girl who dumped me sophomore year is now middle-aged and frumpy makes Facebook priceless.

Yeah, and all the cheerleaders from my senior class
are just like the football players: fat and balding.