Anthony Davis: What's his ceiling?

[Bob Cook]

I'll give anyone a dollar if you can name, other than the two already cited, five more players who stayed all four years and became great pros in the last two decades.

It's not that staying four years makes you a better or worse pro, necessarily. It's that each time you move up a level of competition, you have to adjust to that level, including the idea that more people are as good as you are. The early entries that flopped in the NBA weren't necessarily less talented. In many cases, they had no idea how to make that adjustment.

 

[Dick Whitman]

Competition and coaching aside, in three years you have missed out on at least 120-130 games of experience.

 

[Azrael]

Why are we starting from the premise that college coaches are better teachers than NBA coaches?

We aren't. I asked the question about the quality of coaching upthread.

 

[JC]

I understand that, Bob. But there have been so many four-year guys who flopped at this point that the argument has outlived its usefulness. No?

For the most part, if you are a four year guy it is because you aren't good enough for the NBA.

 

[Small Town Guy]

Playing against the best players in the world and learning from them, I'm going to guess, will allow him to improve more than staying in school and dominating would.

I'm not sure which model is the more efficient. Be interesting to compare outcomes.

Who was the best player ever to come out early? Who was the best player ever to play all four years?

We need an all-star game:

Four-year team:
Russell
Kareem
Bird
Duncan
West

An abundance of big guys there. Maybe Oscar for Duncan, make TD best sixth man in history.

Early:
Jordan
Magic
Wilt (didn't really come out straight of Kansas but didn't stay either)
Kobe
Shaq

Maybe Hakeem off the bench. Shaq and Wilt on court at same time? Probably doesn't work real well. Moses, LeBron, KG off bench as well.

Now, have that game and limit it to guys who have played since, say, 1990 and it will be an ugly rout for the early-birds.

Clarence Gaines Jr. - a longtime scout, son of Big House - has a piece comparing Davis to guys like Camby/Duncan/KG, etc.

http://cgscoutperspective.blogspot.com/2012/04/who-is-anthony-davis-camby-duncan.html

One thing I'd disagree from earlier in the thread is the idea that a big guy can't be a franchise-changer anymore or that Duncan was the last. I still think a big guy, a dominant big guy, can make the difference between an also-ran and a great team. And Howard is the perfect example of it. His theatrics this year were ridiculous and he still has a limited offensive game, but he also led the 2009 Magic to the Finals - Hedo was their second-best player for God's sake. And even this year they could make a run to the Finals, because of his dominance in the paint and defensively. The fact Jordan was better than Bowie and Durant was better than Oden doesn't change the idea big guys can still rule. It's just that if you have otherwordly talents like Jordan and Durant, you shouldn't automatically draft a center.

I also think coaching at the NBA level is light years ahead of the college game. There's more advanced offenses, defenses, scouting, everything. Whether that translates to a one-on-one basis with individual players and helping them learn the game, I don't know, but I think it would.

 

[Azrael]

Better competition in conjunction with better coaching and teaching about how to respond to better competition would seem to me the best of all possible situations for a young player.

and how would he get that in college?

He'd be coached. By educators. One presumes the academic setting encourages teaching, after all.

At least that's what the brochures say.

 

[LongTimeListener]

I'll give anyone a dollar if you can name, other than the two already cited, five more players who stayed all four years and became great pros in the last two decades.

The two being Duncan and ... Kenyon Martin?

Grant Hill
Steve Nash
Alonzo Mourning
Eddie Jones (don't laugh, he made three All-Star teams)
Jeremy Lin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OK I give up. Less than great, but still able, were Emeka Okafor and Shane Battier.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Competition and coaching aside, in three years you have missed out on at least 120-130 games of experience.

Plus there's the matter of age when franchises make their evaluations. We just saw "Fausto Carmona" as the latest Latin player revealed to be older than previously believed. Why do athletes do that? Because there's more potential in a 19-year-old than in a 22-year-old.

I believe it has been cited here that this is an amazingly large contributing factor -- as in, baseball prospects who graduate high school at age 17 work out in much larger proportions than those who graduate high school at age 18.

 

[Azrael]

Remember, I'm asking all these questions about coaching on a thread about how far the NBA career of a college freshman might go.

The responses make it sound as if he'll receive whatever 'coaching' Darwin's laws of adaptation provide, but no more. Which seems odd to me at a time when basketball stars represent huge speculative investments for club owners.

Thus disabused of my starry-eyed optimism, I now assume the D league isn't really a teaching tool either.

So no coaching at any level is the new model for basketball?

 

[LongTimeListener]

I don't know that it's all that new. I never got the feeling Tarkanian did anything but suck on that towel, and his teams were pretty damn good.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

I don't know that it's all that new. I never got the feeling Tarkanian did anything but suck on that towel, and his teams were pretty damn good.

I think there are a few coaches who give the perception that they're just recruiters, who are actually pretty good coaches.

I don't care how much you cheat, if you can win at Fresno State, you must be a pretty good coach.

 

[Bob Slydell]

Davis was a 6-2 guard just two years ago. I'm amazed at his athletic ability for having grown that fast in such a short period of time. He's very agile and crazy athletic.

He is just beginning to tap into his potential. At the beginning of the season, he was all lobs and post ups. But later in the year, he started hitting his jumper more, he asked Cal if he could stretch his offensive game a little. And he has been taking people off the dribble a lot more towards the end of the year.

I saw 95 percent of their games, and it is amazing how much better he got throughout the year. His defense was always phenomenal, but his offense is just getting going. I'd say all-star year after year once he gets going.

He does need to bulk up, but he's got a real wide frame and can add some bulk. Plus, he just turned 19. Camby may be one of the best comparisons, but his offense is better than Camby's.

Definitely not a Duncan, or any kind of power player, though. He's all athleticism and timing.

 

[Bob Slydell]

The idea that Davis would learn more with another year in Kentucky than he would competing against the best players in the world night after night in games, and day after day in practices, is preposterous.

Amen.

Is that because the quality of coaching at the professional level has improved? Or the quality of coaching at the college level has declined?

It's more about the level of competition he would be facing.

Not to mention twice as many games and no school to worry about.

The "no to school to worry about" is a wash if he stays at Kentucky.

Not quite the case will all of them, and Davis went to an academic high school. I'm definitely not a UK apologist, but that's a generalization. Some of the others, I'll give you probably aren't in the front of the class, or even in it, a lot of the time. But I'd say Davis isn't one of them.

Brandon Knight left UK after one year and had 60 credit hours carried over from high school. That kid was crazy smart.

 

[93Devil]

We can debate all day about which level has the better coaches, and it might be best for players to never set foot in college. I don't think so, but there are two things college can do for a basketball player.

1. Playing road conference games in front of passionate crowds is something that the NBA cannot duplicate until the playoffs. And even then, it might not be the same. So the ability to actually know what real pressure feels like, pressure that cannot be simulated in practice or the NBA regular season for 90% of NBA teams, to me, is an advantage for college.

2. The knees of a basketball player only have so many minutes in them, and going straight to the NBA for 80 and 48 instead of 38 and 40 could shorten the competitive playing career (NBA and college) of a basketball player.

And it could be up for debate, but a year of college might have gotten James away from some of the bums that told him South Beach was a good idea.

 

[JC]

We can debate all day about which level has the better coaches, and it might be best for players to never set foot in college. I don't think so, but there are two things college can do for a basketball player.

1. Playing road conference games in front of passionate crowds is something that the NBA cannot duplicate until the playoffs. And even then, it might not be the same. So the ability to actually know what real pressure feels like, pressure that cannot be simulated in practice or the NBA regular season for 90% of NBA teams, to me, is an advantage for college.

2. The knees of a basketball player only have so many minutes in them, and going straight to the NBA for 80 and 48 instead of 38 and 40 could shorten the competitive playing career (NBA and college) of a basketball player.

And it could be up for debate, but a year of college might have gotten James away from some of the bums that told him South Beach was a good idea.

Your second point reinforces why a player should go pro as soon as possible

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Stern was hinting at raising the minimum age to 20. I don't think that would be a bad thing at all.

I'm not a David Stern fan on any level, but the minimum age thing has been very successful, IMO. I'd rather have one and dones in the college game than guys who go pro straight out of high school who aren't ready.

 

[JC]

Stern was hinting at raising the minimum age to 20. I don't think that would be a bad thing at all.

I'm not a David Stern fan on any level, but the minimum age thing has been very successful, IMO. I'd rather have one and dones in the college game than guys who go pro straight out of high school who aren't ready.

Well I'm glad YOU would rather have it. Really, that is all that matters. **** the kids who could be earning millions, entertain us for free in college.

 

[dreunc1542]

Yup, lots of paternalistic bull**** right there.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Stern is drunk with power. Sooner or later, he'll generate the massive lawsuit loss he appears to be gunning for -- one that could take the NCAA down with him. Without the tournament, they wouldn't have money for paper clips. If some court ever ruled the NCAA is a business, look out below.
This issue has been litigated, many many years ago. Courts have quite specifically ruled that there are limits to what restrictions collective bargaining agreements can place on individuals. The NBA has franchises in a number of right to work states. Just sayin'

 

[Guy_Incognito]

I have honestly never seen him play, but from what I read, he sounds like a thinner Mourning.