Andy Pettitte

[Guy_Incognito]

The Yankees bullpen was a weak spot for the team last year (and probably next as well)

Was it? I thought they were pretty good, better than most.

 

[BYH]

Using 2008 numbers:

Sabathia 17-10 / 35 GS / 253 IP / 76 ER / 2.70 ERA
Burnett 18-10 / 35 GS / 221 IP / 100 ER / 4.07 ERA
Combined 35-20 / 70 GS / 474 IP / 3.34 ERA / 6.77 IP/GS

Mussina 20-9 / 34 GS / 200 IP / 75 ER / 3.37 ERA
Pettitte 14-14 / 33 GS / 204 IP / 103 ER / 4.54 ERA
Combined 34-23 / 67 GS / 404 IP / 3.97 ERA / 6 IP/GS

The incoming tandem had 1 more win and 3 fewer losses (and yes I know how subjective wins and losses are). Even if you added 4 additional wins to the Yankees in 2008 - they still would have finished in 3rd place.

Probably most significant among the above stats is the fact that the new combo pitched about 1 more inning per start than the old combo. The Yankees bullpen was a weak spot for the team last year (and probably next as well) so going deeper into a start is a big plus. The caveat that has to be noted is that both CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett had their career bests in innings pitched last year. Asking them to match those numbers may be asking too much. It is very likely that the extra inning per start will evaporate and the production levels will be along the lines of what Mussina and Pettitte contributed.

An independent measurement of a player's contributions is Bill James' Win Share Method (where 4 win shares = one team win). Here's how the 4 players did in 2008:

Sabathia 25 WS
Mussina 18 WS
Burnett 14 WS
Pettitte 11 WS

Based upon those numbers the incoming duo had 10 more win shares which translates to 2.5 more wins.

Marginally better.

Yeah b-b-b-b-but the Yankees are ruining baseball! The end is near! Nobody else can afford to compete! One hundred and twenty wins!

you and your ****ing facts. Don't you know they have no place for the small-market chicken littles?

 

[outofplace]

Yes, a comparison of pitchers that ignores ERA and only looks at victories, one that has pretty much been dismantled by multiple posters. More comedy. I love it.

Bottom line once again for those who keep trying to distract us: The Yankees now have the four highest salaries in baseball, including the best pitcher and the best hitter in this year's free agent market.

The four biggest free agent contracts so far were all given out by New York teams.

How about those for facts?

 

[BYH]

Of course, you're not confident enough in your IT'S ALL OVER contention to make a money-less wager.

No surprise. Easier just to cry and whine and complain than take a stand.

 

[outofplace]

Two threads providing endless entertainment. I love it.

 

[Flying Headbutt]

I think some could argue the incoming pitching tandem is only marginally better because of AJ Burnett. The guy is realllly streaky and inconsistent. One day he'll throw a complete game two-hitter, and then the next three he'll have trouble going 5 1/3 and giving up less than 5 runs. Someone I know called him the next Carl Pavano. That may be closer than some Yankees fans realize.

 

[outofplace]

I think some could argue the incoming pitching tandem is only marginally better because of AJ Burnett. The guy is realllly streaky and inconsistent. One day he'll throw a complete game two-hitter, and then the next three he'll have trouble going 5 1/3 and giving up less than 5 runs. Someone I know called him the next Carl Pavano. That may be closer than some Yankees fans realize.

At this point in their careers, A.J. Burnett is an upgrade over Andy Pettitte. There is an injury risk, of course, but he was significantly better than Pettitte this past season.

 

[spnited]

Yes, a comparison of pitchers that ignores ERA and only looks at victories, one that has pretty much been dismantled by multiple posters. More comedy. I love it.

Bottom line once again for those who keep trying to distract us: The Yankees now have the four highest salaries in baseball, including the best pitcher and the best hitter in this year's free agent market.

The four biggest free agent contracts so far were all given out by New York teams.

How about those for facts?

And the Yankees still have question marks at second base, left field and catcher, and a gaping hole in center. The bullpen, other than Rivera, is also a little shaky.

 

[outofplace]

Yes, a comparison of pitchers that ignores ERA and only looks at victories, one that has pretty much been dismantled by multiple posters. More comedy. I love it.

Bottom line once again for those who keep trying to distract us: The Yankees now have the four highest salaries in baseball, including the best pitcher and the best hitter in this year's free agent market.

The four biggest free agent contracts so far were all given out by New York teams.

How about those for facts?

And the Yankees still have question marks at second base, left field and catcher, and a gaping hole in center. The bullpen, other than Rivera, is also a little shaky.

They aren't done yet. And imagine how many holes they would have if they didn't spend all that money.

Even if they were to stop here, take a look at those question marks. At second base, Cano is coming off of a very disappointing season, but he does have a career .303 batting average and it would be no shock to see him bounce back and produce. I'm not a big fan of the guy, but it's not like he hasn't shown the ability to hit at this level.

Johnny Damon will probably play left field, with Matsui at DH. Damon isn't what he was, but he did bat .303 with 17 home runs, 71 RBI, 95 runs scored and 29 steals in 2008.

No argument about center field and catcher, though. I don't like what they have at those spots, either.

 

[heyabbott]

Sabathia and Burnett are only marginally better than Mussina and Pettitte? Not sure I agree there, but I guess that depends on how you define "marginally."

Getting Wang back after he started only 15 games in '08 should also make an impact.

And, obviously, the Yanks are replacing 40 year old Mussina and 36 year old Pettitte with 28 year old Sabbathia and 32 year old Burnett

 

[heyabbott]

You note that it may be too much to ask for Sabathia and Burnett to match their inning totals of a year ago, yet you make no mention of how difficult it would be for Mussina to match his performance of a year ago.

Mussina won no more than 15 games in the four seasons preceding last year's 20-win campaign and he had a 4.36 ERA in that span. It seems a safe bet that he would have come back to that type of level, thus making the additions of Sabathia and Burnett more significant.

EXACTLY. Sabathia would have to match Mussina's career best of 20 wins to even match what is being lost by the Yankees. Sabathia is Mussina with a gut and Teixeira is Giambi with a glove as far as the signings are concerned. The Yankees never won a World Series with Giambi and Mussina in their primes but tell me again why the Yankees should be looking to print playoff tickets?

Can someone answer my original question?

Thanks

One way to look at it:
The Yankees are markedly better than last year. CC & AJ are younger than Mussina and Pettitte and are far more likely to have career average years or better. Odds are that Mussina, at age 40, and coming off a career year, would not come close duplicating 2008. Pettitte could still be a .500 pitcher, but his innings would go down and he's as likely to get shelled as to keep the Yanks close.

A rotation of CC, AJ, Wang, Joba and Hughes is vastly superior to the rotation the Yanks used post All Star break '08.
Tex is more than marginally better than Giambi. Posada, back from injury, will be vastly superior to his replacements last season.
Cano and Jeter are bound to have better years.
The Yankees will miss Abreu more than they think and the return of Matsui without Abreu will force the Yanks to have a weak OF with Damon playing the field more than he should.

But the biggest reason the Yanks will be better is that their competition will not be.

 

[Ben_Hecht]

Rebounds by Cano or Jeter are far from assured.

Rob? Strike zone? Know what it is? Not yet? Oh.

And Father Time is closing in on Jeter like Giacomo closed on the field in his Derby.

 

[hockeybeat]

NY Post reports that a Pettitte return to the Bronx may be in doubt because of the Yankees signing of Mark Teixeira.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/12252008/sports/yankees/pettitte_return_less_likely_after_teixei_145766.htm

 

[Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L)]

Sabathia and Burnett had their career highs in IP last season. It is too much to ask for them to match those numbers from last year. Sabathia may have the early season problems he had last season after being a workhorse in 2007. If he or Burnett gets off to a slow start then the pressure of playing for the Yankees could cause a snowball effect. Very few pitchers have been able to come into New York and be successful in their first season (Clemens was 14-10 his first year).

The glass is half full optimism of "Cano and Jeter are bound to have better years" shows that you are not looking at the realities of the situation. Jeter and Cano are not bound to have better years at all.

 

[heyabbott]

Sabathia and Burnett had their career highs in IP last season. It is too much to ask for them to match those numbers from last year. Sabathia may have the early season problems he had last season after being a workhorse in 2007. If he or Burnett gets off to a slow start then the pressure of playing for the Yankees could cause a snowball effect. Very few pitchers have been able to come into New York and be successful in their first season (Clemens was 14-10 his first year).

The glass is half full optimism of "Cano and Jeter are bound to have better years" shows that you are not looking at the realities of the situation. Jeter and Cano are not bound to have better years at all.

Looking at Jeter's numbers, he actually didn't have a bad season. he hit .300 for the 10th time in 13 years. His slg% took a dive, he didn;t hit doubles last season. but .363 OBP for a number 2 hitter is pretty good.

Cano should rebound. 3 good years followed by a bad one don't indicate he lost his ability to play the game, just a bad season.

Look at Swisher's numbers last year and Brosius' numbers the year before he signed with the Yankees.

 

[Angola!]

hey chris, if we are taking a glass half empty approach, then the red sox will be decidely worse this year, right? lowell and ortiz are older and coming off major injuries. matsuzaka, pedroia and youkilis will all drop off and their weak bullpen will continue to hurt them. so, apparently both the yankees and red sox will be worse. guess we should just hand the division to the rays.

 

[heyabbott]

hey chris, if we are taking a glass half empty approach, then the red sox will be decidely worse this year, right? lowell and ortiz are older and coming off major injuries. matsuzaka, pedroia and youkilis will all drop off and their weak bullpen will continue to hurt them. so, apparently both the yankees and red sox will be worse. guess we should just hand the division to the rays.

OTOH, the Orioles couldn't finish the International League in the money

 

[2muchcoffeeman]

Using 2008 numbers:

Sabathia 17-10 / 35 GS / 253 IP / 76 ER / 2.70 ERA
Burnett 18-10 / 35 GS / 221 IP / 100 ER / 4.07 ERA
Combined 35-20 / 70 GS / 474 IP / 3.34 ERA / 6.77 IP/GS

Mussina 20-9 / 34 GS / 200 IP / 75 ER / 3.37 ERA
Pettitte 14-14 / 33 GS / 204 IP / 103 ER / 4.54 ERA
Combined 34-23 / 67 GS / 404 IP / 3.97 ERA / 6 IP/GS

The incoming tandem had 1 more win and 3 fewer losses (and yes I know how subjective wins and losses are). Even if you added 4 additional wins to the Yankees in 2008 - they still would have finished in 3rd place.

Probably most significant among the above stats is the fact that the new combo pitched about 1 more inning per start than the old combo. The Yankees bullpen was a weak spot for the team last year (and probably next as well) so going deeper into a start is a big plus. The caveat that has to be noted is that both CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett had their career bests in innings pitched last year. Asking them to match those numbers may be asking too much. It is very likely that the extra inning per start will evaporate and the production levels will be along the lines of what Mussina and Pettitte contributed.

An independent measurement of a player's contributions is Bill James' Win Share Method (where 4 win shares = one team win). Here's how the 4 players did in 2008:

Sabathia 25 WS
Mussina 18 WS
Burnett 14 WS
Pettitte 11 WS

Based upon those numbers the incoming duo had 10 more win shares which translates to 2.5 more wins.

Marginally better.

Down in St. Petersburg, the Rays have moved out Edwin Jackson (he was the weakest link -- good-bye!) to make room for David Price, a much better pitcher and there's more solid young pitching -- Jeff Niemann and Mitch Talbot, most notably -- coming up (along with Price) from last year's Durham Bulls.

I am not convinced that moving Chamberlain into the rotation is a good move for the Yankees or Chamberlain. The Yankees should be looking at Joba as their post-Rivera closer (Rivera is 39), but they're not.

 

[Ben_Hecht]

Using 2008 numbers:

Sabathia 17-10 / 35 GS / 253 IP / 76 ER / 2.70 ERA
Burnett 18-10 / 35 GS / 221 IP / 100 ER / 4.07 ERA
Combined 35-20 / 70 GS / 474 IP / 3.34 ERA / 6.77 IP/GS

Mussina 20-9 / 34 GS / 200 IP / 75 ER / 3.37 ERA
Pettitte 14-14 / 33 GS / 204 IP / 103 ER / 4.54 ERA
Combined 34-23 / 67 GS / 404 IP / 3.97 ERA / 6 IP/GS

The incoming tandem had 1 more win and 3 fewer losses (and yes I know how subjective wins and losses are). Even if you added 4 additional wins to the Yankees in 2008 - they still would have finished in 3rd place.

Probably most significant among the above stats is the fact that the new combo pitched about 1 more inning per start than the old combo. The Yankees bullpen was a weak spot for the team last year (and probably next as well) so going deeper into a start is a big plus. The caveat that has to be noted is that both CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett had their career bests in innings pitched last year. Asking them to match those numbers may be asking too much. It is very likely that the extra inning per start will evaporate and the production levels will be along the lines of what Mussina and Pettitte contributed.

An independent measurement of a player's contributions is Bill James' Win Share Method (where 4 win shares = one team win). Here's how the 4 players did in 2008:

Sabathia 25 WS
Mussina 18 WS
Burnett 14 WS
Pettitte 11 WS

Based upon those numbers the incoming duo had 10 more win shares which translates to 2.5 more wins.

Marginally better.

Down in St. Petersburg, the Rays have moved out Edwin Jackson (he was the weakest link -- good-bye!) to make room for David Price, a much better pitcher and there's more solid young pitching -- Jeff Niemann and Mitch Talbot, most notably -- coming up (along with Price) from last year's Durham Bulls.

I am not convinced that moving Chamberlain into the rotation is a good move for the Yankees or Chamberlain. The Yankees should be looking at Joba as their post-Rivera closer (Rivera is 39), but they're not.

All true . . . but the Schickelsteingrubbers want Joba to start, so damn the torpodoes.

The Tampa meddling never ends. Imagine this team if they had a couple of genuine
personnel guys, who could operate without interference/meddling.

Fortunately for the rest of the AL, that's not the case.

 

[Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L)]

Using 2008 numbers:

Sabathia 17-10 / 35 GS / 253 IP / 76 ER / 2.70 ERA
Burnett 18-10 / 35 GS / 221 IP / 100 ER / 4.07 ERA
Combined 35-20 / 70 GS / 474 IP / 3.34 ERA / 6.77 IP/GS

Mussina 20-9 / 34 GS / 200 IP / 75 ER / 3.37 ERA
Pettitte 14-14 / 33 GS / 204 IP / 103 ER / 4.54 ERA
Combined 34-23 / 67 GS / 404 IP / 3.97 ERA / 6 IP/GS

The incoming tandem had 1 more win and 3 fewer losses (and yes I know how subjective wins and losses are). Even if you added 4 additional wins to the Yankees in 2008 - they still would have finished in 3rd place.

Probably most significant among the above stats is the fact that the new combo pitched about 1 more inning per start than the old combo. The Yankees bullpen was a weak spot for the team last year (and probably next as well) so going deeper into a start is a big plus. The caveat that has to be noted is that both CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett had their career bests in innings pitched last year. Asking them to match those numbers may be asking too much. It is very likely that the extra inning per start will evaporate and the production levels will be along the lines of what Mussina and Pettitte contributed.

An independent measurement of a player's contributions is Bill James' Win Share Method (where 4 win shares = one team win). Here's how the 4 players did in 2008:

Sabathia 25 WS
Mussina 18 WS
Burnett 14 WS
Pettitte 11 WS

Based upon those numbers the incoming duo had 10 more win shares which translates to 2.5 more wins.

Marginally better.

Down in St. Petersburg, the Rays have moved out Edwin Jackson (he was the weakest link -- good-bye!) to make room for David Price, a much better pitcher and there's more solid young pitching -- Jeff Niemann and Mitch Talbot, most notably -- coming up (along with Price) from last year's Durham Bulls.

I am not convinced that moving Chamberlain into the rotation is a good move for the Yankees or Chamberlain. The Yankees should be looking at Joba as their post-Rivera closer (Rivera is 39), but they're not.

The Rays are also rumored to be on the path to sign Giambi to replace Floyd as their DH. This would also be a significant upgrade for the Rays.

Using Win Shares as just a guidepost - the combo of Sabathia and Burnett is better by 2.5 games over Mussina and Pettitte while Teixeira represents a 3.5 game improvement over Giambi. That's just 6 games while the Yankees lost the AL East last year by 8 and this does not take into account the improvements noted above by the Rays. The Yankees are still a second or third place team no matter how much money they toss around.

And getting back to the original point of this thread - I think they are constrained by the CBA from throwing around any more significant money this offseason.