An Author's Look Into the Future

[Elliotte Friedman]

An Authors look into the future | Tesla

Really thought-provoking.

My car lease is up in June 2018, so I've got a year to research how much will change when a dealer undoubtedly asks for a five-year commitment.

And I've had a few people say to start looking into Bitcoin.

 

[Starman]

We were supposed to have flying cars by now.

 

[SpeedTchr]

Not aimed at you, Elliotte, but -- blah blah blah technology is everything blah blah blah we won't do anything the same blah blah blah and so on. Where is the proof that any of this will actually happen in such a short period. I will be long dead and gone before a majority of automobiles in the U.S. are either electric or autonomous.

 

[Neutral Corner]

You want to see a disruptive technology? Self-driving 18 wheelers are not far away, and hundreds of thousands of truck drivers are going to be out of work with few other marketable skills.

 

[Elliotte Friedman]

No offence taken, Tchr. But Britain banned gasoline/diesel cars by 2040...so I am curious

 

[Elliotte Friedman]

You want to see a disruptive technology? Self-driving 18 wheelers are not far away, and hundreds of thousands of truck drivers are going to be out of work with few other marketable skills.

I am with you on this one. At some point, North American is going to have to go to a minimum salary

 

[BTExpress]

You want to see a disruptive technology? Self-driving 18 wheelers are not far away, and hundreds of thousands of truck drivers are going to be out of work with few other marketable skills.

I still see "Drivers wanted: Call 800-xxx-xxxx" on the back of just about every truck I see on the highway. :)

 

[Neutral Corner]

Not aimed at you, Elliotte, but -- blah blah blah technology is everything blah blah blah we won't do anything the same blah blah blah and so on. Where is the proof that any of this will actually happen in such a short period. I will be long dead and gone before a majority of automobiles in the U.S. are either electric or autonomous.

Don't be too certain. I saw radiologists get outsourced. Chest x-rays for hospital in-patients used to be shot in the very early morning. The films would be hung for the radiologists to interpret starting at 7 am and dictate a report, which would be typed up and put in the patients chart. All of a sudden the hospital figured out that the digital films they now got could be e-mailed to radiologists in Bangalore, who would read them cheaper. The reports would be ready before the day shift even arrived. Add in that now there is dictation software which interprets the dictation and puts it into the patient's computer file, no transcriptionists need apply.

 

[Neutral Corner]

I still see "Drivers wanted: Call 800-xxx-xxxx" on the back of just about every truck I see on the highway. :)

Yup. Wasn't that long ago that Kodak sold a ****-ton of film for x-rays, too. All digital now, and if not (because a doctor has paid for and functional equipment and does not want to upgrade) they will soon, because it's much easier to e-mail an image or burn a copy onto a CD and hand it to the patient on the way to a referral appointment.

 

[User 149557]

The adoption of driverless and fully electric vehicles will vary wildly based on where you live. Urban and rural areas are headed for really divergent transportation futures.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

The adoption of driverless and fully electric vehicles will vary wildly based on where you live. Urban and rural areas are headed for really divergent transportation futures.

The part of that equation nobody has figured out is how many people like to drive and will want to maintain control in the future.

I drive a 2006 TJ. Barring a catastrophic wreck, I will never get rid of it. I like driving. How many millions are there like me?

 

[Neutral Corner]

I am. I drive a sports car because it pleases me. It pleases me most when I take it out with the top down on a crisp morning and wring it out on a curvy road.

**** an autonomous car.

 

[typefitter]

The part of that equation nobody has figured out is how many people like to drive and will want to maintain control in the future.

I drive a 2006 TJ. Barring a catastrophic wreck, I will never get rid of it. I like driving. How many millions are there like me?

I like driving, too. I consider myself to be an environmental person, and I will find it really, really hard to give up my gas-powered truck.

 

[Neutral Corner]

They'll have to pry the five speed out of my cold dead fingers.

 

[RickStain]

I'm not sure you'll all have a choice once self-driving is proven significantly safer.

 

[Starman]

If and/or when

I'm not sure you'll all have a choice once self-driving is proven significantly safer.

Yep; there will be a phased transition. For a time, self-drivers will probably have to pay higher insurance rates.

After safety differences become apparent, human licensing restrictions will become tougher and tougher.

There will, of course, be economic-access arguments during the process.

 

[Bradley Guire]

So with all this technology putting everyone out of work, how are supposed to afford housing and food?

 

[Dick Whitman]

So with all this technology putting everyone out of work, how are supposed to afford housing and food?

Said the blacksmith ...

 

[The Big Ragu]

I wish we could somehow make Henry Hazlitt required reading for all school kids.

The Curse of Machinery | Henry Hazlitt

Also, self driving cars have been way overhyped. There are so many logistical things related to them that are likely going to keep complete integration from happening as soon as a lot of people think. Take a place like Manhattan. Driving there can be like a blood sport. Put driverless cars on 5th Avenue, and pedestrians and bikers will take over the road and cause traffic standstills. The term that John Adams, the risk theorist uses is, "deferential paralysis." The technology as it exists, programs the vehicles to respond with extreme deference to pedestrians, cyclists and other cars with human drivers -- giving sacred cow status to anything that isn't self driving. In dense urban areas, that will end up with deferential paralysis for anyone in a self driving car, creating gridlock.

I'm not suggesting that driverless cars aren't where we are very likely headed. And I am sure there are ways to work around kinks like the one I am describing (and there are other logistical things that need to be worked out, too, on top of people needing to want to adopt it). But they are probably not quick or easy. Revolutionary things usually don't work on the timelines some people expect when they get excited about an idea or a technology.

 

[BTExpress]

I'd say the communications/media revolution has surpassed what people might have expected 2 decades ago. Flying cars? Still waiting. Much easier to revolutionize the movement of data than people.