Right now it's between Price and Sabathia. Sabathia has the edge because he's on the Yankees, has the most wins, and is a previous winner. The only comparable pitcher is Jon Lester, who can win if he dominates the last six weeks and leads the Sawx past NY or TB for the playoffs.
Everyone else has flaws:
* Lee/Hernandez don't have the records.
* Carl Pavano and Clay Buchholz have the W/L record, but neither one has the flash -- both less than 100Ks. Buchholz leads the league in ERA, but Lester's the better pitcher and bigger name. Buchholz is no better than the anonymous Trevor Cahill, who is doing the same thing for the A's in obscurity.
*Relievers need an historic year to win it. Soriano is having as good a year as a guy with almost the same name, Soria.
No one else is in the discussion. Andy Pettitte might have been the favorite when he got hurt.