Why don't sabermetricians manage baseball teams

[SkiptomyLou]

You see two teams, the Red Sox and Braves, about to have two of the biggest collapses in baseball history. Both of their managers are "baseball men." They played professionally at some level and have "been there." Well, look what being there has gotten them.

What I argue is that front offices should hire Bill James types to put together lineup cards and make bullpen decisions. Hell, Fredi G is a card-carrying member of SABR and has ignored everything the society preaches for the entire season. Because of that, the Braves will be sitting home in October. There is little argument that a Bill James type gets the Braves into the playoffs rather easily.

So what will it take for this door to be broken down?

 

[Batman]

Would that Bill James type be able to replace the two all-star caliber pitchers the Braves lost to injury in August? Or the rash of injuries that the Red Sox have had on their pitching staff?
Can he keep his best reliever from releasing a fastball a fraction of a second too soon, so that it's grooved down the middle instead of breaking on the inside corner?
Would he be able to teleport between stadiums and keep the Cardinals and Rays from getting hot at the same time his team is struggling?

 

[Azrael]

So what will it take for this door to be broken down?

Maybe Bill James can just unlock the door from the inside, since he's already the Red Sox Senior Advisor for Baseball Operations.

And Gene Mauch wants to see you in his office about the "biggest collapses" in baseball history.




typo

 

[RickStain]

No point. The strategy side of the game is insignificant enough that the gains you get from a sabermetric-minded manager aren't worth the hassle in the press and in the clubhouse.


The only thing that'd really matter is bullpen usage, and even then, it shouldn't be that hard for the GM to tell him "try to use your best pitchers in close games and save some scrubs for blowouts."

 

[Herbert Anchovy]

Lewis's book made it pretty plain that at least in the case of the A's, the games weren't being called in the dugout. Howe was strictly middle management, not much more than a fry cook. And you have seen the invertebrates Beane has hired since. Not one strong personality or "baseball man" among them.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

I can't speak for the Braves, but Francona's job has always been to somehow employ the egos and neuroses of one of baseball's highest payrolls to the team's best advantage. I believe that the business school term for doing that is "management." Beane doesn't need a manager? I saw the 2003 gag job the A's pulled with a cipher for a skipper. He apparently doesn't need any pennants, either.
There isn't a manager or a numerical analysis that can cope with a starting rotation turning in an ERA over six.

 

[LongTimeListener]

The Diamondbacks did this in 2009, hiring A.J. Hinch and acknowledging that the manager didn't really matter. It was a horrific failure, and both Hinch and the GM who hired him -- stat guy Josh Byrnes -- were fired in 2010. They were replaced by "baseball men" Kirk Gibson and Kevin Towers respectively. The Diamondbacks are a 90+ win division champion.

 

[SkiptomyLou]

Look at the Braves. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what high leverage situations are. Yet Fredi doesn't get it. Hence, Venters and Kimbrel have been way overused and horrible in the month of September because of it. Also, any time a nonpitcher bunts it shows stupidity by the manager

 

[Herbert Anchovy]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Art-Howe-isn-t-happy-about-his-portrayal-in-Mon?urn=mlb-wp20913

"Considering the book wasn't real favorable to me to start with I figured it would be something like this but to be honest with you it is very disappointing to know that you spent seven years in an organization and gave your heart and soul to it and helped them go to the postseason your last three years there and win over 100 games your last two seasons and this is the way evidently your boss (Beane) feels about you.

"They never called me to get my slant on things as far as the movie was concerned. So, I mean, it's coming from someone. I don't know who it is but maybe it is Hollywood to make it sell, I guess. I don't know. It's disappointing. I spent my whole career trying to build a good reputation and I think I did that but this movie certainly doesn't help it. And it is definitely unfair and untrue. If you ask any player that ever played for me they would say that they never saw this side of me, ever. "

And what about his portrayal in the book?

"(Lewis) came in my office for about 10 minutes one day and that's all the time he spent with me. And put yourself in my position. He's asking me about my boss. Now, what can you say? (laughs) He ran some things by me and I verified some things and gave my slant to different things but they never got into the book, my slants."

 

[sgreenwell]

Look at the Braves. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what high leverage situations are. Yet Fredi doesn't get it. Hence, Venters and Kimbrel have been way overused and horrible in the month of September because of it. Also, any time a nonpitcher bunts it shows stupidity by the manager

I don't think the Braves need a manager versed in baseball game theory, they just need a better manager, period. If they don't win the wild card, you can probably attribute it to the heavy workload of the pen and going a bit too long with Costanza and some others. Fredi got hired because of some success with the Marlins, who are never quite as bad as people think they'll be. (They're just completely anonymous.)

Larry Dierker was a guy heavily into stats, and he won a bunch in the regular season, but not in the postseason. That Earl Weaver guy was pretty good though. However, I think it's much more important for the front office / GM to be aligned that way. Ultimately, that's where the buck stops with the team, and as bad as a manager might be, he can't screw you over that much if you're properly stocking the team. I don't think Joe Torre was a magic soothsayer, as his pre- and post-Yankees stops might show, but the Yankees always did OK. Same with the Red Sox and Francona, and all the guys Branch Rickey employed.

 

[SkiptomyLou]

The point is, the Braves DON'T value advanced stats at all, but have stayed reasonably successful. Is it absurd to think they are going to have a Pirates-like decline starting this September and continuing for the next few decades?

 

[buckweaver]

The Phillies and Giants are notoriously "old-school" in their front offices and their dugouts. Are they in danger of a Pirates-like decline, too?

 

[SkiptomyLou]

The Phillies and Giants are notoriously "old-school" in their front offices and their dugouts. Are they in danger of a Pirates-like decline, too?

The Phillies have a horrible situation with their contracts going in the next few years. In about 5 years they'll be horrible again. The Giants pitching enables them to compete every year, but let's be honest they aren't a dominant team even with Posey

 

[Moderator1]

The point is, the Braves DON'T value advanced stats at all, but have stayed reasonably successful. Is it absurd to think they are going to have a Pirates-like decline starting this September and continuing for the next few decades?

This can't be a serious statement. It just can't be. No one can say that with a straight face. No one can be that clueless.

The Braves will probably STILL be in the playoffs.
Can Freeman drink legally? Heyward?
The catcher is younger than my son and a SIX time all-star.
The closer is a rookie - the rookie of the year.

Uggla hits 30 a year. Prado is a very good player.

Is Jurrjens 25 yet? Don't want to say much about Hanson, his injury would concern me as a Braves fan. They have a ton of young pitching talent. Teheran. Vizcaino. This dude who goes tomorrow.

Some holes? Yeah. Swallowing their nuts this month? BIG TIME. A decline? Not likely.

 

[SkiptomyLou]

Jurrjens will likely be traded and Prado is the opposite of a good player. Plus they have no shortstop

 

[Moderator1]

You're right. They blow. If I was a Braves fan, I'd off myself.

 

[SkiptomyLou]

You're right. They blow. If I was a Braves fan, I'd off myself.

Plus they have too much pitching. How are they going to deal with that. They are handicapped by Lowe's salary and pretty much have to use him, but how do you fill the rest of the rotation with 4 more out of these? What do you do with the others?

Delgado, Hanson, Hudson, Teheran, Vizcaino, Medlen, Beachy, Minor

 

[Moderator1]

I don't think you can count on Hanson. And I don't know where you get the Jurrjens trade crap.

Stroke Lowe a check and tell him to have a nice life.

You farm or trade some of the others - you know that shortstop thing?

Desmond for Beachy? You game?

 

[mb]

So, lemme see if I've got this right ...

The Braves are going to **** away their lead and miss the playoffs because they're too unsaber.
The Red Sox are going to **** away their lead and miss the playoffs because ...

 

[SkiptomyLou]

So, lemme see if I've got this right ...

The Braves are going to **** away their lead and miss the playoffs because they're too unsaber.
The Red Sox are going to **** away their lead and miss the playoffs because ...

the red sox are going to hold on