As you can see from the blue bar on the Default-O-Matic (click the image below to enlarge), Journal Register, which remains in my personal portfolio because its two-bit shares would cost more to sell than they are worth, is theoretically the closest of any of the publishers to default.
Its rating of Caa3, which indicates a 72.9% probability that it will fail to meet its obligations, was cut in mid-May from Caa1, which carried a 35.7% risk of default. Not long before that, the company was rated B1, which signified a 15.2% risk. If conditions don’t turn around for the company, the next stop would be C, which would signal the company is in a hard default, not a technical one.
The next-weakest credit among the publishers is Morris Publishing at Caa1 (35.7% risk). And then come MediaNews and Tribune, which both are rated B3, representing a 10.7% chance of default.
The Washington Post Co., which derives the majority of its revenues from things other than newspaper publishing, is the strongest credit at A1, representing a default risk of just 0.2%. Scripps, which also is highly diversified away from newspapers, is the second-strongest credit. And Gannett, which has lots of newspapers but comparatively modest debt, is the third-strongest.
