Internal Polling Suggests Hastert Could Devastate GOP

[Deeper_Background]

WASHINGTON — House Republican candidates will suffer massive losses if House Speaker Dennis Hastert remains speaker until Election Day, according to internal polling data from a prominent GOP pollster, FOX News has learned.

"The data suggests Americans have bailed on the speaker," a Republican source briefed on the polling data told FOX News. "And the difference could be between a 20-seat loss and 50-seat loss."

Most GOP lawmakers have stood by Hastert, pending a full airing of the facts in his handling of the Mark Foley affair, in which the former Florida representative was caught exchanging salacious messages with teen pages in Congress. The new polling data, however, suggests that many voters already have made up their minds.

The GOP source told FOX News that the internal data had not been widely shared among Republican leaders, but as awareness of it spreads calculations about Hastert's tenure may change. The source described the pollster who did the survey as "authoritative," and said once the numbers are presented, it "could change the focus" on whether the speaker remains in power.

While internal GOP polls show trouble for Republicans, the newest AP/Ipsos poll also showed that half of likely voters say the Foley scandal will be "very or extremely important" when it comes time to vote on Nov. 7. By nearly a 2-1 ratio, voters say Democrats are better at combating corruption.

The same pollster who provided the gloomy news on Hastert's effect on GOP candidates nationwide did send out an advisory on Tuesday to rank-and-file Republicans that they might consider canceling appearances with Hastert in their districts. Hours later, Rep. Ron Lewis of Kentucky announced he was canceling a fundraiser scheduled for next week where Hastert was supposed to be the headliner.

Other Republicans, however, continue to stand by Hastert.

Rep. Doc Hastings of Washington, who runs the House ethics committee, offered his unabashed support during a briefing on ethics panel activities.

"I think the speaker has done an excellent job," Hastings said, later adding that his remark "is not related to the matter at hand here."

FOX News' Major Garrett contributed to this report.


http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,218043,00.html

 

[Ralph Waldo Henderson]

I'm calling bull**** on this one. No way the GOP got internal polling done this quickly (Foley only resigned a week ago). This is a thinly-disguised way for GOP leaders to get Hastert to quit. Good politics, sure.

(For the record, I hate the fact that I'm the first person responding to a d_b thread, but this one is actually legitimate.)

 

[poindexter]

I haven't gotten into any of this ****, but if a single congressman diddling pages, and the resultant shenanigans, is what brings down the party, and *NOT* the ridiculous spending, Iraq war, lack of border security, basic retardation of the President, etc, then this country is doomed.

 

[BTExpress]

I'm calling bull**** on the poll, too.

The average voter is hard pressed to find Iraq on a map.

And we're supposed to believe . . .

--- that they've even heard of Hastert?

--- that they really care whether he keeps his job or not?

--- that his keeping his job would really cause a mass exodous of Republican voters? "Let's see, I kind of liked the Republican candidate for House District 32 in Nevada . . . but if Hastert keeps his job I'm staying home!"

I can think of 23,000 reasons not to vote Republican, and Hastert keeping his job ranks about No. 21,549.

 

[Fenian_Bastard]

I think the numbers are probably pretty bad, but that these are fluffed for all the reasons above. And I also think it's October 6 and nobody knows anything yet.

UPDATE -- Of course, if all the GOP'ers can talk about is wanking, who knows?
http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2006/oct/06/wi_03_goper_recycles_ad_from_vernon_robinson

 

[leo1]

good

 

[Fenian_Bastard]

However, if this polling did take place before the Hastert stuff happened, and these are the those numbers, in which the current scandal is NOT reflected, then we're looking at an earthquake.

 

[hondo]

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/JonahGoldberg/2006/10/06/foley_flap_highlights_dems_hypocrisy

This is a fair take, in my opinion. Those of you on the lib side would be hard-pressed to argue with some of the logic in this column. But you'll try.

 

[slappy4428]

Is it just me or does anyone else find a coincedence that while most of the party is rallying around him, the ones who aren't just happen to be the ones who would fight for his job -- the No. 2 and 3 in the GOP?

 

[Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L)]

FWIW - the betting line on Hastert resigning is now +$175 that he'll resign to -$260 that he won't (that means you would have to risk $100 to win $175 saying he'll resign or risk $260 to win just $100 saying he won't resign).

To say it another way - the smart money is saying he won't be resigning by October 31st.

Just yesterday it was basically even money.

 

[alleyallen]

FWIW - the betting line on Hastert resigning is now +$175 that he'll resign to -$260 that he won't (that means you would have to risk $100 to win $175 saying he'll resign or risk $260 to win just $100 saying he won't resign).

To say it another way - the smart money is saying he won't be resigning by October 31st.

Just yesterday it was basically even money.

You're running book on this? And who exactly sets these odds?

This country IS in trouble.

 

[Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L)]

I got the odds from Bodog.com

You can bet on almost anything these days.

For instance - Adam is the 8/1 favorite to win Survivor Cook Island.

It should be noted that there was a big furor over Karl Rove resigning last year and that never happened and then there is the continuing furor to try and get Rumsfeld to resign and that ain't working out either.

 

[alleyallen]

I got the odds from Bodog.com

You can bet on almost anything these days.

For instance - Adam is the 8/1 favorite to win Survivor Cook Island.

It should be noted that there was a big furor over Karl Rove resigning last year and that never happened and then there is the continuing furor to try and get Rumsfeld to resign and that ain't working out either.

Like I said, this country IS in trouble if we have odds on things like this. And, for the record, I couldn't give two monkey testicles to know what's going on with Survivor. I'd rather have marbles crammed up my nose than watch that piece of crap show.

 

[Birdscribe]

I haven't gotten into any of this ****, but if a single congressman diddling pages, and the resultant shenanigans, is what brings down the party, and *NOT* the ridiculous spending, Iraq war, lack of border security, basic retardation of the President, etc, then this country is doomed.

Bingo, Poin.

I hate to say we're doomed, but...

 

[old_tony]

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/JonahGoldberg/2006/10/06/foley_flap_highlights_dems_hypocrisy

This is a fair take, in my opinion. Those of you on the lib side would be hard-pressed to argue with some of the logic in this column. But you'll try.

An excellent column. But don't expect too much from the lib side. First, they'd have to read it. Second, they'd have to understand it. The first is unlikely. The second is astronomically unlikely.

 

[dog428]

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/JonahGoldberg/2006/10/06/foley_flap_highlights_dems_hypocrisy

This is a fair take, in my opinion. Those of you on the lib side would be hard-pressed to argue with some of the logic in this column. But you'll try.

An excellent column. But don't expect too much from the lib side. First, they'd have to read it. Second, they'd have to understand it. The first is unlikely. The second is astronomically unlikely.

Yeah, it's great. Gotta like that the Republican spin machine is spending so much time attempting to dissect the definition of pedophilia.

Nice work, fellas.

 

[old_tony]

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/JonahGoldberg/2006/10/06/foley_flap_highlights_dems_hypocrisy

This is a fair take, in my opinion. Those of you on the lib side would be hard-pressed to argue with some of the logic in this column. But you'll try.

An excellent column. But don't expect too much from the lib side. First, they'd have to read it. Second, they'd have to understand it. The first is unlikely. The second is astronomically unlikely.

Yeah, it's great. Gotta like that the Republican spin machine is spending so much time attempting to dissect the definition of pedophilia.

Nice work, fellas.

Actually, what's nice work is how much time the Democrat spin machine is spending ****ing up the definition of pedophilia for political gain. But you already knew that.

 

[Lyman_Bostock]

Maybe the GOP needs to grow a pair (sorry for the choice of words):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/10/dennis_hastert_and_the_cringin.html

 

[tyler durden 71351]

I read it. I think Jonah Goldberg is a douche. He makes some points, but you certainly can't say that either political party has a moral edge over the other. They're both equally full of assholes and scumbags...with the rare decent human being thrown in.
Anyone who is a huge partisian is a moron anyhow. Look Washington, just keep me from getting ****ed on taxes, give business what it needs to excell, look out for the most helpless members of society, keep me halfway safe from terrorists, pollution, etc. and stay the **** out of my private life. Can a guy or gal run on that platform...because I would vote for him/her.

 

[old_tony]

I read it. I think Jonah Goldberg is a douche. He makes some points, but you certainly can't say that either political party has a moral edge over the other. They're both equally full of assholes and scumbags...with the rare decent human being thrown in.
Anyone who is a huge partisian is a moron anyhow. Look Washington, just keep me from getting ****ed on taxes, give business what it needs to excell, look out for the most helpless members of society, keep me halfway safe from terrorists, pollution, etc. and stay the **** out of my private life. Can a guy or gal run on that platform...because I would vote for him/her.

Damn, tyler. I'd vote for you.