What happens then?

It doesn't matter. Any extra money made will go toward the profit margin, not new jobs. Remember, do more with less.

 

Somewhere I still have a clip of Smith Hempstone's column after The Washington Star died in the early 1980s, and he made the point that "just as people get the government they deserve, they get the newspapers they deserve." A couple years later, he'd resurface as editor of the new Washington Times, and I suppose that's proof that his cynical view was at least partially true. There was a void, and it was filled not by someone motivated by profit, but by a political, social and religious agenda.

The whole fucking thing will implode. There's no way newspaper Web sites will ever pull in the revenue that can support newsrooms the size that we see today. There will be a void and it will be filled by people who have little or no interest in searching for truth. Independent, profit-seeking news organizations will still exist, but the manpower edge they currently hold over the wackos will erode over time. It will be an ignorant nation of people seeking out niches that validate whatever weird ideas they favor.

 

frank, you need to start a media criticism blog

 

I don't think the newspaper will EVER go away, for many of the reasons you said and more. But there certainly will be more of a push to the Web. The way I see it, smaller papers -- maybe even tabloids, maybe even weeklies -- to get the word out, yet in-housing for the online coverage.

To me, that would seem like the most successful way in the future. But then again, who am I?

 

If that were to happen, then newspapers would bounce back.

Newspapers have survived newsreels, radio and TV. They'll survive the Internet too.

They might not survive corporate ownership that is beholding to the shareholders and not the communities the papers are supposed to be serving.

 

I read magazines for the in-depth look at issues and features and couldn't imagine doing so on their Web sites. Maybe fewer but longer stories would be the way to go for much of the printed newspaper as well.

 

I honestly think that's not the way to go.

I don't know how much of an appetite the general public has for long form journalism unless it's Pulitzer Prize-worthy copy. Even then, I think too many of the younger demographics have too-short attention spans to really get into really long stories.

Granted, the truly exceptional stories probably will get read no matter how long they are. But people don't get the daily newspaper to read long stories. They want the facts presented quickly in a newspaper. In a magazine, you have much greater tolerance for long form journalism. Actually, I think you have more of an expectation there. In my opinion, people sit down with magazines because they want to spend time perusing the story. They don't with the daily newspaper.

 

That's exactly the scenario I'm afraid of, Frank. That there's going to be vacuum of real news reporting.

Here's an idea though. What about the not-for-profit newspaper model. My college paper was independently owned, and it was a not-for-profit.

These papers would be run by boards, who (in theory) would actually make decisions in the best interests of the institutions they serve ... not the shareholders. If run well, the employees would still be able to earn decent wages ... our college paper had "adult" full-time staff members who provided services such as bookkeeping, IT support, front-office work, etc. There also was a full-time GM and a full-time Ad manager who did quite well for themselves.

Hell, the idealist in me thinks these things might actually provide the services we all wanted to when we got into this business. Or maybe I just need some sleep.

 

damn solid post, frank.

 

Uhh ... have you seen how little newsrooms have shrunk today? A small paper in Bumblefuck, Wis. with 5 staffers can do 10x more online than they can in their print section.

 

Newspapers will continue to shrink the staff and shrink the product in order to maintain profitability. They will not invest substantially in online development and will allow startups and portals to siphon their audience and attract the small advertisers, even regular joes who would buy a targeted ad for $5.

The newspaper Web site will always be free. Eventually, we'll have to give the paper away, too, just to have a big enough audience to satisfy advertisers.

Hopefully, the Sunday paper will continue to have a place in the American lifestyle and will evolve.

 

not an issue to people who have reached their 20s withotu giving a crap about a newspaper.

And I bet reading the computer on the crapper is as normal to them as you or I taking SI or the paper into the john.

As for ads...I'm sure their "printability," for lack of a better word, will improve. And until then, people can just jot down what they want and/or just pick up the circular at the store.

no hope. none.