Washington Post-ABC News presidential race poll

Except when the Democrats are beating the incumbent.

But you have a point. Obama won this election on of the wave that came from Black September, two months before the election.

 

Mittens could be the first GOP nominee in my lifetime to win the nomination without needing the South.

He will be unbeatable in the West and the Northeast, will naturally win Michigan, and should outshine that beacon of charisma, Pawlenty, to pick off a few Midwestern states. The South, which would never vote for a Mormon, will be up for grabs between Newt and the tea party flavor of the month.

Romney will then nominate Rick Perry as VP to cover his southern flank in the general. Mitt could end up giving Obama a run for his money in the battleground states. At the same time, a lot of the 28-percenters could stay home. So lots of dynamics in play here.

 

Mitt can also win because he's got the one element in his corner than can beat the $1B that is funding the Obama campaign....



Dead center on the Mormon business portfolio.

 

Black September, and Ms. Sarah . . .

 

Don't forget that RoveCo. got a ton of anti-gay measures on ballots to help push conservatives to the polls.

 

When Harold Macmillan was named Prime Minister of Great Britain in the 1950s, somebody asked him what would guide his government.
"Events, dear boy, events," Macmillan replied.
So it is with the election. Stuff that hasn't happened yet, stuff no one has predicted or expected, will likely drive the 2012 election. So analyzing it now is a really useless venture, except to note that since more bad stuff happens than good stuff, events pose more of a risk to the incumbent than to his challengers.

 

Newt won't win a single state. I'd be stunned if he finished in the top 3 in any state.

 

Gay marriage is most unpopular with African-American voters who voted against gay marriage, and against George Bush.

The large African American turnout in 2008 also helped anti-gay ballot initiatives. And helped Obama.

 

Newt might (should) be out before the first primary.

 

Palin is a novelty act. Few people take her seriously.

 

Agree completely. I'll be a little surprised if he's still there at Christmas. At the latest, he'll be out as soon as he loses South Carolina or Florida, whichever is first.

 

But those who take her seriously take her very seriously. I hope the poll is right. I always get nervous when people in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina play such a prominent part in deciding who gets the nomination.

I think the first three primaries should be states where the candidates actually need to win if they're going to win the general election. Maybe Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania?