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Wall Street thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by DanOregon, Oct 6, 2008.

  1. BYH

    BYH Active Member

    That's because back then we didn't live in the 24-hour newscycle, with talking heads giving us the best- and worst-case scenario on multiple platforms.

    Let me make it abundantly clear I'm not falling into lockstep with the lemmings who prattle on about how negative the media is and how it's the media's fault everything is going to hell in a handbasket. But 25 years ago, our only way to read or hear more about the recession was to pick up one of the financial papers (unless you had CNN, still in its infancy, or watched PBS and Louis Rukeyser...every Friday night at my house was fish sticks and Rukeyser).

    Nowadays, we see stories about the recession everywhere we go and everyone has an opinion on it.
     
  2. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    am, It's not the borrowing of money. Our economy lives on borrowed capital. It is how much some of these firms were allowed to leverage their assets by lenders. Wall Street played this high-stakes game of poker for at least the last 15 years. It was insidious in a few ways. One, they screwed shareholders. They did that by leveraging up the cash provided by shareholders (which more and more include regular people who own either stocks or mutual funds that own those stocks) and used that debt to accumulate giant portfolios of securities. Those securities included things like those derivatives and swaps that have exploded on them. The Fed -- our government -- actually enabled them. To try to bolster the economy and make things continue to look better than they were, they kept interest rates low and continued to reduce rates, even when we started to see a trend toward inflation. As those rates went down, the value of those Wall Street portfolios swelled. Their massive debt, in effect, became cheaper to carry. And it yielded them gigantic returns, even though they had very little equity as collateral for what they owned.

    We actually had some warnings that no one heeded. There was the Asian currency crisis. The tech meltdown. But they were able to skate through with just a little damage, and aside from those relatively few scares, this has been the game Wall Street has played since the early 90s.

    As long as interest rates remained low and the economy was growing, they could play that game. But economies don't grow forever. We have economic cycles. And the deeper they got into that game, the bigger the fall they set up. In the mean time, though, based on the enormous profits they were seeing, employees of those firms got huge compensation packages and bonsuses.

    The obvious flaw that was bound to bite them in the ass eventually (what we are seeing now) is that Wall Street turned from a place where profits came from recurring businesses -- actual businesses that created economic growth -- into a place living on a wing and a prayer on huge amounts of leverage and huge risk. When their good luck turned about a year ago, all of the shareholder wealth supporting their leverage got wiped out and it started to fold like a house of cards.

    The problem now is that the damage has already been done. It's been being built up for 15 to 20 years. There is no government bail-out that can undo it. And putting all Americans $700 billion in debt, when that is a drop in the bucket when looking at the magnitude of the money that has been lost, is a bad idea because it creates a host of OTHER economic woes that can only serve to extend the recession this whole thing is going to make worse. It was short-sighted thinking. Even if it it had had a positive short-term effect, it wasn't worth the negative long-term effects. But politicians don't consider the long term. They consider the length of their elected terms.
     
  3. jgmacg

    jgmacg Guest

    Big --

    Did you see '60 Minutes' last night? Interesting piece on the current Wall Street implosion. Including the unsecured, unregulated market in "credit default swaps." Which apparently totals something around $60 trillion dollars.

    Good thing I keep my savings bonds, buttons and bits of string in a shoebox.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/05/60minutes/main4502454.shtml

    "Well, we really don't know. There's this voluntary survey that claims that the market is in the range of 50 to 60 or so trillion dollars. It's sort of alarming that, in a market that big, we don't even know how big it is to within, say, $10 trillion."

    "Sixty trillion dollars. I know it seems incredible. It's four times the size of the U.S. debt. But that's the size of the market according to these voluntary reports," says Partnoy.

    He says this market is almost entirely unregulated.
     
  4. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    jg, I didn't see it. But I believe the dollar amounts are that high.

    A lot of people pointing fingers right now throw in the "unregulated" characterization over and over again. It may not surprise you, knowing me, that I don't think this should be regulated. If people want to be stupid with their money, they should lose it. We don't need regulation. This isn't a matter of anyone infringing on others' rights, so we shouldn't be legislating it. Let Lehman and JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch pay their price. If I am stupid with my money, I pay my price.

    The real regulation occurs when people hopefully learn from their mistakes. The problem with regulation that is trying to protect people from themselves (and not from each other) is that it relies on our moronic elected officials knowing how to regulate things, without arbitrary political decisions and special interests forcing irrational regulations on us.

    If I want to go out and spend all my money on horse dung and I put up my house as collateral to do it, there shouldn't be "regulation" stopping me. I am stupid. When I lose everything, I got what I deserved.

    America was kind of founded on financial freedom and liberty. The Boston Tea Party epitomizes our early principles.

    Regulation (and I am not talking about the types of necessary regulations, or laws, that protect our rights from others infringing on them) implies: 1) You can protect people from themselves. 2) Elected officials will do things with pure motives.

    I don't believe either of those things are true.
     
  5. jgmacg

    jgmacg Guest

    I'd never suggest regulation as a corrective to every economic need. But some regulatory oversight, some effective means of keeping things in bounds on that level playing field, if only to curb the worst in our natures, seems like a good thing. Theoretically, anyway. Even Adam Smith understood that there had to be rules in the marketplace.

    But as you say, in whom do we place faith to enforce them?
     
  6. Football_Bat

    Football_Bat Well-Known Member

    Sixty fucking TRILLION?

    U.S. GDP in 2007 totaled $13.84 trillion.
     
  7. Clerk Typist

    Clerk Typist Guest

    Bring back the elves!
     
  8. cranberry

    cranberry Well-Known Member

    There's absolutely no reason not to regulate predatory lending practices and while shareholders theoretically should be minding the corporate store, warning bells should sound when debt-equity ratios go so far out of whack.

    Bottom line: This is what it looks like the morning you wake up from a 25-year credit orgy. What's happened in the financial sector in recent years is closer to organized crime than free market enterprise in my book. Caveat emptor.
     
  9. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    Our financial crisis has resulted in some runs on banks ... in Iceland ...

    http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4898553.ece
     
  10. DanOregon

    DanOregon Well-Known Member

    To be fair, the unemployment stats have been rejiggered so much in the last 25 years (mainly to keep the stat low), it isn't a valid comparison. How else could we have more than six straight months of NET job losses, yet unemployment stays relatively flat?

    And I'm sure I'm not the only one who finds it somewhat amusing to see Congress ripping Wall Street a new one for being careless and irresponsible with other people's money, especially when you take Iraq into consideration. (Let alone other people's lives.)
     
  11. Herbert Anchovy

    Herbert Anchovy Active Member

    Not comparable.
    http://hnn.us/roundup/entries/55175.html
     
  12. slappy4428

    slappy4428 Active Member

    Because once the unemployment runs out, the person is off the books.
     
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