Vegas Casinos seeing red

I always love the dweebs at the roulette table writing in their notebooks every roll...

 

About the only roulette I play is if I can monitor how recently one number has come up, and then put money on that a few times

 

People thinking that there is a "W/L pendulum" is what keeps the casinos in business.

Blackjack bores me after a few minutes. I used to go to AC a lot in law school and still have the charts memorized. If you play enough hands perfectly, you still lose. I am going for a guys weekend to Vegas for Super Bowl (really cheap hotels) and I usually just play in very short sessions with higher stakes. Not that it makes mathematical sense, but I always like to pocket what I start with if I win double that with and then play no more than 5 hands with the winnings. I rarely win, but when I do, it's for a lot. And when I lose, it is for a finite amount which I don't chase.

 

My heads up perference is from the year I dealt blackjack on a reservation. The job taught me how to count cards and how to spot trends in losers and winners alike.

Out of about 100 dealers I was probably one of two or three to be in college at the time - and a statistics major to boot! - so the pit always assigned me to the $25 and $50 minimum tables. Met quite a few of the high rollers and counters. Sometimes we'd carry on quiet convos about game theory and money management.

One guy, about 55, always scared our pit bosses. They'd have me shuffle after half the deck, they'd swap in new dealers, etc.

I watched him lose about $500 in an hour and then he upped the stakes early in one six-deck shoe on a Sunday morning when the pit was understaffed with 21 year old native Americans still hungover from the night before.

Then he switched to three hands of $200 a piece. We both knew the deck was sky high in face cards. Over the next five minutes, he made most of his hands, a couple BJs, my 14 and 13 turned into busts and he walked out up a couple grand.

His main theory on blackjack: bring enough money you won't be devastated to lose and just try and leave up a couple of units each time. The only advantage a player has is he can quit anytime he wants.

 

Yeah, those are the keys to about any form of gambling: the amount of bankroll you have, and a strong idea about when to stop.

 

While not a Martingale (disaster waiting to happen), my approach is a longer version, measured in 20 result chunks. Even if you get your ass kicked for 80 hands, you'll eventually win 5 in a row or 8 of 10. In those spots, have your maximum on the table.

I haven't gotten burned by it yet but when I do, it'll be a hell of a story for the nursing home. I'm fortunate in that a few years ago I collected a sizable bonus at work and took half of it and created a gambling fund. It's a few thousand dollars now and, if I lost it, it would piss me off for a weekend but wouldn't destroy a monthly budget.

 

He also said to me "my bad days are when I think I can win five grand. Much better to win $300 and leave."

 

I was there at the Bellagio when a friend's brother lost his Martingale at the $100 table. Not a good weekend for him.

 

As he should have. Been there as a younger man with smaller stakes.

 

In theory, that's great. But, obviously, no one knows when that hot streak is about to start or how long it might last. It might come right after you've lost five hands in a row and you think you'll never win another.

 

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