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Unfailed: California's budget outlook best in years...

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by TigerVols, Nov 20, 2013.

  1. TigerVols

    TigerVols Well-Known Member

    The Golden State continues to surge under the guidance of Jerry Brown and a Democratic supermajority.

  2. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    Yeah, but wait until all the seven-figure earners leave! They're on their way out, I can just feel it.
  3. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    Wait until the stock market doesn't crank out 14% returns, then see how those public pension numbers look.
  4. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    I'm more concerned about the big-earning weight-pullers. They were leaving if the tax increased passed.

    I think Phil Mickelson is already gone. I miss him.
  5. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    That is a big part of it. They are projecting surpluses into the future predicated on asset bubbles in the housing and stock markets continuing to drive up prices. That isn't likely, since it is all a mirage. It's just another example of the Federal Reserve having inflated away some debt.

    They'd be better off patting themselves on the back for raising taxes, cutting some spending and reaping a windfall this year on capital gains on an irrational stock market and housing market -- and not making projections that are likely going to look silly (although no one will remember).

    This isn't just a Cali story. Texas and Florida are both projecting surpluses this year and most other states have reduced their budget deficits by a lot. It was all done by necessity, of course. They reached their debt limits and had to cut spending with defaults looming.
  6. TigerVols

    TigerVols Well-Known Member

    So, the fact that California is looking at a reserve of $2.4 billion by the end of the fiscal year gets crickets from the board's Googleconomists?
  7. poindexter

    poindexter Well-Known Member

    Calpers is square?
  8. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Not sure who you wanted to respond or what you want them to say. But you are really mistaken. California doesn't have reserves. It has debt well in excess of $100 billion (not including unfunded pension and retiree health care benefits).

    50 to 100 more years of the stock market going up by 20 + percent each year, and the state can run enough surpluses to pay off its debt -- as long as it doesn't increase its spending levels.
  9. Batman

    Batman Well-Known Member

    The big question is, will they actually use that surplus to pay some of their debt and take care of obligations? Or will they say, "Hey, we have a surplus, let's find a way to spend it!"
    If the former, good for them. They've learned from their mistakes. Maybe they can dig out of their financial hole some day.
    If the latter, which based on past history I have a feeling will be the case, then we'll go through this whole mess again in short order.
  10. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    We also have the pending high-speed rail project, which is a disastrous boondoggle that is going to make Boston's Big Dig look well-planned and well-executed. That's a $100 billion bomb that's going to drop on the next generation.

    I would never vote for a neo-Nazi tax-cutter. A neo-Nazi tax-cutter who has a plan to kill high-speed rail? I might consider it.

    But it is clear that things are looking up, and it is also clear that the political success was achieved by drop-kicking the state GOP out of the grown-ups' room. (And, of note, the thread title is a reference to the long-ago and since-locked thread asking if California was "America's first failed state.")
  11. Mizzougrad96

    Mizzougrad96 Active Member

    I ask this as a California native who hasn't lived there regularly in 20 years, did I hear correctly that the high-speed rail isn't supposed to be running until 2029?

    It's amazing how long they've been talking about doing this and how long it supposedly will take to finish.
  12. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    The "completion date" -- when it's supposed to be all done -- moved from 2020 to 2033. I think the first rider is scheduled for something like 2022, between Fresno and Madera, two towns where nobody could possibly want to go.

    It's a gem.
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