Tropical Storm Fay

That was horrific.

 

If he shows up in Ulysses, you're fucked.

 

What I remember is Katrina was projected for the longest time to go straight up the Florida panhandle, and late that Friday the projected path changed to the west. My guy says he thinks the models and forecasters for Fay will eventually reflect a more westerly path as well.

We'll know much more by sunrise tomorrow.

 

If this is even a Cat 1 at landfall, I will be surprised.

 

Those 11 a.m. models look similar to the path Charley took after it moved over Cuba. Charley intensified from 90 knots to 125 knots in the 24 hours before its Florida landfall, so I wouldn't be shocked to see this become a strong Cat 1 or a Cat 2 by landfall.

 

Was thinking the same thing, Cameron. Looking much more like a Charley than a Katrina at this point. All depends on how much time the storm spends lingering over Cuba.

 

If I remember correctly, Charley was south of Jamaica then turned north as it was south of Cuba. The scary thing with Charley was how quickly it intensified off the coast of Florida, then made its unexpected right turn into Charlotte Harbor and Punta Gorda. Let's hope there's no repeat of that strengthening scenario. The Florida Straits and Gulf of Mexico are very warm, so it's definitely a possibility, though the NHC only gives a 3 percent chance of being a Cat 4 and 9 percent chance of being a Cat 3. So it stands a higher percentage of being dissipated or a tropical depression as it does of being a major hurricane. At least at this point. Stay tuned.

 

A Charley (or lesser hurricane) could do far more damage to New Orleans with the necessary factors in place and the right angle of landfall than Katrina did. People forget, but Katrina made landfall to the east of New Orleans. It did not directly strike New Orleans.

A direct blow from a Charley or lesser hurricane at the most unfortunate time and location of landfall (the eye to the southwest of the trouble zone) could create far more storm surge and the attendant problems and casualties.

We might have to rename it the Big Ragu.

 

Tampa Bay.

 

Didn't Katrina hit parts of Florida as just a Cat 1 before it mammothized in the gulf?

 

Yes.