1. Welcome to SportsJournalists.com, a friendly forum for discussing all things sports and journalism.

    Your voice is missing! You will need to register for a free account to get access to the following site features:
    • Reply to discussions and create your own threads.
    • Access to private conversations with other members.
    • Fewer ads.

    We hope to see you as a part of our community soon!

The run on banks in Greece in progress; Euro collapse coming?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by The Big Ragu, Jun 13, 2012.

  1. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    I'm still waiting on $200 for a barrel of oil and $2,000 for an ounce of gold.

    [/theskyisfalling]
     
  2. TheSportsPredictor

    TheSportsPredictor Well-Known Member

    Ragu never comes back years later to gloat about being correct.
     
  3. Twirling Time

    Twirling Time Well-Known Member

    Only time I've thought of Greece in the last six months was today, when Exeter City — the Grecians — drew Liverpool in the FA Cup.
     
  4. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    I had someone on here calling me "chicken little" continually for years, for pointing out the reckless amounts of debt that have been run up worldwide because of reckless, and clueless, central bank policy focused on short term benefit at the expense of the long term. That sums up multiple threads I have participated on. I pointed out that zero interest rate policy was robbing savers to push massive amounts of debt and spending into the future ... and got laughed at by someone on here. No, I didn't come back to point out that the high-yield bond market is starting to crack over the last half year, and we are likely starting to pay the price (and it gets much worse). I just pointed out the mess on the way up -- as a warning.

    Cheap currencies led to the housing crisis in 2008, it has Europe falling apart dying a slow death, China facing a huge credit cycle right now with probably trillions of dollars of defaults coming (and a mini crisis imminent that will prelude a much bigger crisis in most of the world somewhere in the future that makes 2008 look quaint), and the Federal Reserve having lost control of the mess it created (debt levels are through the roof thanks to what they created and it is a house of cards that is going to fall) -- which is why the U.S. stock market is falling apart (and it only gets WAY worse up ahead).

    But all some people on here have ever taken from me was that "The Euro is going to collapse" and "Gold is going to $8,000 an ounce in U.S. dollars," oh, and it happens next Tuesday. ... things I have never said or predicted. The Euro will not be around in the form it currently is at some point (and it is NOT a strong currency relative to much of anything; why some jackass would revive this thread thinking it is random snark is stupid). When Greece first collapsed in 2011, I said, even if they find a way to buy time, this isn't going away. I get laughed at in the interum. So we see it come to a head again in 2014 (when their bailouts run out). Now they have made it into an even bigger problem. I say the exact same thing. This is only getting worse -- there is a price to pay, and attempts to put it off make it worse at some point in the future.

    Europe has trillions of dollars of debt that are going to sink it. Just as China and Japan and the U.S. are swimming in debt created by recklessness. I can't tell you what is going to crack first, and when it is going to happen. But there are major crises that are GOING to happen. We keep seeing them, and will continue to see them. And I saw the things that caused them happening all along the way -- and simply try to point them out in posts like this. It was like binging on heroin.

    Also, in a world in which every major central bank is in a war to destroy their currencies to try to put off collapse (which they caused in the first place), I sure do like having a good portion of my wealth in bullion rather than in those currencies. For what it is worth, even as the dollar has temporarily benefited as the prettiest pig in the sty (there is a dollar crisis coming at some point), the price of gold in dollar terms is still higher than the last time someone came on here to tell me the price has "collapsed." But no, I don't often come back to point that stuff out. It's a waste of my time.

    In any case, it's worked very well for me over time, and I am confident with the currency wars that are just compounding the problems they created that owning precious metals is a great insurance policy -- and will continue to be as long as the world continues on its current path. If they stop, I will look at owning dollars or Euros or Yen instead. But no, gold is great insurance based on what I have seen all around me (particularly in the last decade). I get that most of you don't get that. So keep your savings in dollars or Euros, or think gold compares to Apple stock (what someone once told me on here), and I won't usually bother trying to explain that I am not looking at the world the same way as you .

    For what it is worth, the Euro was one of the currencies I have used to hedge the gold I do own, which has worked out particularly well, because the value of the Euro in dollar terms is down more than 20 percent over the last few years. ... even with the dollar itself not being a healthy currency. But inexplicably some idiot revived this thread with that as the backdrop for the Euro. I essentially have owned gold in Euro and Yen terms.

    The reason I don't bother with these threads anymore, is that it is difficult to discuss anything with most of the people on here. It's dumb attempts at snark, and people constantly distilling my posts into nonsense I never said. ... there is nothing intelligent to be had most of the time. So I gave up.

    I could come back and do, "I told you so," posts. I don't usually have the time -- especially right now. But when the U.S. stock market sold off in August, I tried to tell people that even if it didn't happen all at once then, it was going to happen at some point -- and it is going to go down much harder than it already has. When the S&P pushed through 1900 a year and a half ago and someone on here was messaging me about stocks, I remember telling him that it it would be MUCH lower than that at some point. No prediction about when, but just that the stock market was in bubble territory -- it was all credit / margin fueled. Things like companies being able to borrow cheaply thanks to the Fed and buy back stock (which pushes up stock). Or to pay big dividends (which attract savers when interest rates are being suppressed). It has all been phony and artificial. And it is going down.

    When we got the pullback in August, I posted to keep an eye on China. I was chicken little, of course. Watch the next few weeks now. ... When someone came on to say that they saw the buying opportunity in Facebook and Google and Netflix, etc. (the FANG stocks), I tried to warn them that those are great companies -- but the stocks were still crazy expensive and were likely going to come down really hard. Watch and see this year.

    The shit might not hit the fan next week, but these are messes that have been built up slowly since the 1990s (when Alan Greenspan was Fed chairman). The piper came calling in 2007/8, but rather than pay the price, the central bankers doubled down and did even more insane things -- rounds of asset buying to prop up credit markets, zero interest rate policy, and in Europe, NEGATIVE interest rates. All to try to prop up a debt mess by creating even MORE debt -- consumer and government. Common sense dictates that is reckless. It not only preludes a massive credit crisis (no, I am not predicting it is next week necessarily, although we are closer today than we were 3 years ago when I was screaming about this on here), and it has held back economies, because it creates huge misallocations of capital -- people speculating on artwork, student loan and auto debt (a lot of which will default) at trillions of dollars, China building ghost cities and airports in the middle of nowhere, Greece essentially offering massive social programs with borrowed money (thanks to the ECB) that bankrupted the country.

    What we have seen for the last decade was like trying to plug a dam with your finger. At some point -- likely sooner than later now -- there is a huge problem as a result. They took a self-created crisis and made it into any even bigger crisis (or several crises) that WILL happen. But some idiots on here will distill this post into, "He predicted the end of the world next week," or "Gold is going to $10,000 an ounce in U.S. dollars this year." So have at it.
     
  5. JohnHammond

    JohnHammond Well-Known Member

    Why anyone would put any stock in an analysis written by someone who is always wrong is beyond me.
     
Draft saved Draft deleted

Share This Page