The new and improved, fight-free Romney vs. Obama thread!

Yes, this is a very objective look at history.....

 

What isn't?

 

As is Dwight Eisenhower

 

It's always good when they go back over a century to look for some kind of precedent...

 

If Romney picked Christie as his VP could Christie deliver New Jersey?

I'm assuming the answer is no, since NJ is almost always blue, but if Christie could deliver NJ, he'd be a pretty appealing choice.

 

Mizzou, according to polling, the answer is no. According to polling so far, the only VP candidate making even a marginal difference in his home state is Rubio -- who has other issues. I think state by state thinking is overrated anyway. You're either going to win the national election or lose. If it's close enough that one state decides it, so can a million other things.

 

Generally, I would agree that it doesn't matter. It depends how close it will be. Rubio seems to have the biggest upside of the possible running mates.

 

The poli sci research is clear. The only VP nominee for whom there is any evidence he or she shifted votes in the last 40 years is Palin, who might, repeat might, have cost McCain a percentage point or two.
Complicating Romney's selection process is that he is not much liked by most top-level GOP pols and the feeling is mutual. So finding someone he trusts would be a top priority. It's one thing to have a Biden who talks too much on the record. It's another to have a Veep who'll be one of the first leakers of dirt when things go wrong. And things go wrong for all Presidents.

 

The problem with the research is that a VP nominee hasn't been picked to deliver a state since LBJ in 1960. Also, there have only been 1-2 close presidential elections since then.

 

Not that it was make or break, but does Clinton carry Tennessee twice without Gore?

 

Gore didn't even carry Tennessee in 2000. So, I'm thinking yes.

 

Obama must not be running too strongly in Arizona, if the Dem nominee for Gabby Gifford's seat is unwilling to say he's voting for the President for reelection:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/05/24/dem_congressional_candidate_refuses_to_say_if_hes_voting_for_obama.html