The Germans aren't happy

By the way. ... The Euro is below 1.40 (in dollar terms) FINALLY today. I was in WAY early on this one. And the dollar is so ugly, there is no guarantee that news on this side of the Atlantic might change trend. We have debt. They have debt. We are running very inflationary policy. They have no choice but to. I just thought their problems are uglier than our problems. They are 16 countries with 16 different fiscal policies (none of them very sound), but trying to operate with a common currency. That works fine when the global economy is humming along, as it did for a long time. Signs of strains and they should have known there was potential for a mess.

 

We are in a worldwide recession -- U.S. included. Not just those Eastern European countries that aren't growing or the Eurozone. I don't care how they measure it or try to pretend it isn't reality.. We are already there, have been for a while, and with the ridiculous monetary policy the last few years, it has fueled inflation on top of it, which means stagflation. To a large extent it could have been avoided, but it would have meant dealing with a harsher, but shorter recession back in 2008/2009. Instead, a bunch of the most developed countries did everything wrong fiscally (and some monetarily) to precipitate something that is going to be more lasting.

 

There are a lot of hucksters when it comes to gold -- trying to sell you bullion and storage fees. I don't think owning physical gold makes sense for most people, but that's my opinion.

As for the hucksters, they were bound to come out. I started buying gold in Fall, 2008 when it was $734 an ounce. Now it is approaching $1900. As it has risen, you started getting those TV and Radio ads, all but promising you returns.

There is no promise of anything. I just saw fundamental reasons for why gold (and a lot of commodities) made sense after the bailouts in 2008, and then as our Federal Reserve embarked on policy after policy designed to create inflation (to inflate away our debt as much as they can, even though they won't admit it), I saw even more reasons for it. And it has been backed up by the technical analysis I do. That said, I haven't owned gold in a straight line. I actually sold everything I owned at two points during that period and I even shorted it at one point. Right now, though. ... Well, don't go by me because I don't want the responsibility if I am wrong. Just know that it is very volatile, and depending on who you ask, it fundamentally makes sense (me) and it isn't even near it's inflation-adjusted all-time high yet, or it is a frothing bubble that has gone parabolic and is going to pop. I'd say eventually it will get into bubble territory, because anything tat goes up in value that much eventually overheats. Personally, I don't think we are anywhere near there yet. I also think that you could see a lot of volatility and unless you can live with big price swings (to the downside, as well as the upside) as it presumably continues to go up in value, you should stay away from it.

But that said, if you are asking me, just as me, I see NOTHING else out there (with the exception of silver perhaps, and various food commodities which I think are going to be gold themselves over the next decade) that is going to appreciate in value during this slow economic growth AND protect you from every central bank destroying their currencies by printing too much in feeble attempts to "stimulate" growth (and inflate away all their debt -- there is a ton of sovereign debt in the world).