The First 2012 SJ.Com Presidential Poll

Obama.

Republicans seem less than enthused about plastic-looking Romney, who has never been an average guy a day in his life. His ham-fisted attempts to be a regular guy are the definition of unintentional comedy.

Rout.

 

Obama. Ton beat an incumbent these days you need a perfect mix of different factors going against him. None are.

 

Obama.

Touching on an earlier comment - it's not a big deal if a handful of Southern Baptists don't vote for him in Alabama (he'll win that state regardless), but his faith will alienate enough conservative swing-state voters to ensure he can't overturn Obama's advantage in places like Ohio and Michigan.

The GOP left itself with the choice between a bigot, a bully and a phony, and picked the latter.

 

Obama in a landslide.

Romney's only chance at knocking him off is to come out swinging in the debates and convince the independent voters who were at the heart of Obama's win in 2008 that they are worse off now than they were four years ago and, sadly, they're not. At least not enough and in big enough numbers to swing the race.

Obama is weak on the health care law, especially if the Supremes knock it down, and that would have been a great area to attack him in but, as others have pointed out, Romney's the one candidate who can't do it since it was basically modeled after what he would have done.

Foreign policy? Bin Laden's dead so check. Unemployment? Still high but most numbers seem to show positive gains. Gas Prices? Obama's dead to rights but people are so used to $3-$4 per gallon now there's little outrage.

That puts everything on the debates and, sorry all you Conservative Nobama folks but Barrack is going to slice and dice Mitt everytime the two are up against each other.

Unless the Supremes knock down Obamacare completely, gas goes up to $6 per gallon, unemployment jumps to 15% AND Obama is caught with one of the Secret Service's hookers, it's going to be a no-brainer, file before 9 p.m. election night.

 

Though far from perfect, Obama has done a good job in restoring the economy despite having almost no help from the GOP, which has no new real ideas than simply attempting to rehash Bush 43's policies. As an independent, Obama's the better option.

 

Obama. The GOP will take the senate and keep the house. Both sides will declare victory and the citizens will lose.

 

That would be the first Congress to never pass a law.

 

Obama will win. He won by eight percentage points last time, and I can't see how Romney makes up eight points.

To put it in a sports perspective, Obama controls his own destiny in this election. Unless he makes a really, really stupid mistake, Barack Obama take the oath of office on Jan. 20, 2013. Even if the economy slips, Obama can still make the argument that it is Republican obstructionists which have made the problem worse and that Romney would make the economy worse for most Americans. Obama would have to make a really awful foreign policy mistake to lose.

Both Obama and Romney are in the 1 percent - Obama because of income as an author. The problem with Romney is that the more you see him, the less you like him. Also, Romney just isn't real good at electoral politics. He has won one general election. He hasn't won more than 50 percent in most of the primaries. He hasn't won the GOP nomination as much as he has outlasted the other candidates and still has resources.

 

If Romney loses by five points, the GOP will probably keep control of the House and maybe gain a couple of seats in the Senate although they would need 51 because Biden could break a tie. That would be a successful campaign for the Republicans.

If on September 24, Romney is targeted as a flip-flopper and makes several "oops" statements, Reagan Democrats may actually vote Democratic. There is also a good chance that many evangelical voters might not show up. After the 2000 election, Rove stated that the GOP should have had four-million more voters. If you look at the difference in the margins, Bush lost the popular vote by about 600,000 votes in 2000. In 2004, Bush had over 3-million more votes than Kerry. Compassionate Conservatism of 2000 wasn't as successful as running on religious themes and anti-gay votes in 2004.

The problem is that since 1968 (I choose that date because that is the first presidential election where voters were not disenfranchised because of their race or ethnicity), attacks against groups have a payback. In 1994, Pete Wilson used the anti-immigration issue to get reelected as governor and the Republicans came close to winning the state Assembly. A great victory for the Republicans, but it ended up securing Democratic dominance of California politics in the last 16 years. Legal immigrants who weren't involved in politics became citizens and have pretty much voted against Republicans ever since. There are seven statewide partisan offices, and Republicans didnt win any in 2010. They haven't won more than two since 1996.

 

They're barely able to pass a resolution recognizing the NCAA Division II Women's Lacrosse Champions, much less a law.

 

Obama's hidden advantage is that if it appears GOP has a viable chance to capture the Senate in the late going, a Romney win would give the GOP full control, and enough independents have seen enough of the results of that dynamic to go BO in a tight race.

 

Obama. And I don't think even $5-$6 gas could derail him at this point. As said by others, the Reps aren't offering any real alternatives to Obama's plans. I'm almost convinced that instead of going on the offensive, they've been playing four corners the past two years hoping they can get into the White House and then get an agenda going.