The First 2012 SJ.Com Presidential Poll

Obama will win because 50+% of Americans love "free" shit and don't know any better.

 

Obama, because unless the economy tanks or gas prices zoom higher, the Republicans don't have an issue that they can claim they have a better idea on how they can fix.

They used to be able to claim they'd be better in foreign affairs. All Obama has to do is repeat, "Bin Laden is dead." That neutralizes that issue.

Health care: Even if it's overturned by the Supremes, all Obama has to do is say, "Well Mitt, I tried it your way."

Moral values: The GOP has overplayed their hand with some of the anti-abortion measures (vaginal ultrasounds). They can't claim they want government not to make medical decisions for people when they've passed their own laws doing just that.

 

Obama. To turf out an incumbent president, the alternative has to be better. Not just different. Better. One incumbent president has failed to win re-election since 1980, and even that took a ground-shifting third-party candidate. I believe it's a cultural thing: Voting against an incumbent is a tacit admission that the last result was wrong (and requires a tacit admission by a substantial number of voters that THEY themselves voted for the wrong guy last time).

 

Obama - because he is already winning without even really trying to campaign

Plus, the GOP seems to have punted this election and the last election with their choices or the people being placed out in front of the pack. I think in 2016 is when they are really going to get serious.

 

Obama for the reasons everyone else has stated (uninspiring challenger, advantages of incumbency, no strong case for change from the other side, incrementally improving economy) plus his overall general likeability -- the more charismatic, likeable, relatable candidate generally wins.

Obviously subject to change.

 

Obama. Even if we're all paying $5 for gas by summer. Romney is a lousy candidate.

I think the GOP's only chance was to come together behind a candidate that spoke to their base of True Believers, and they couldn't find/agree on one. Conservatives might hold their nose and vote for Romney, but with zero enthusiasm. He's really Obama Lite to many of them.

 

Obama - unless the economy tanks hard in the next few months (something much larger than occasional blips like today's job numbers) or Romney suddenly gains the likability and charisma he's been lacking.

 

Obama.
Reasons many said before, plus the GOP cannibalized itself during the primaries.

 

Obama wins easily. Unless he appoints Hilary Rosen as his campaign director.

 

I think Obama will win. I am not a Democart but I will not be upset if he wins again. A Republican in the White House is bad news for the Yankees. The last 9 times they won the World Series, a Democrat was in power.

Go Obama!

Go Yankees!

 

Obama, because the Republicans' only plan for the future is getting rid of Obama, just like John Kerry's was to get rid of Bush in 2004. That didn't work so well, either.

 

Romney. The people who think Obama will cruise have the same cluelessness as the people who thought Carter was cruising to a second term in April of 1980. At least Carter was a better candidate at that point than Obama is now.