The end of the 300-game winner?

If Felix Hernandez gets some consistency ... he's young at least.

 

By the way, anyone want to guess how many games Phil Niekro won by his 30th birthday?

If you guessed "31," you must have looked it up on baseball-reference.com, too!

 

Oswalt and Zambrano have less than zero chance of holding up physically.

 

That's a really close call.

 

If Mike Mussina hangs around long enough he could make it. He's about 50 shy. After this year he needs to have enough left in the tank for 4 more 12-13 win seasons. It's doubtful he does, but it will be interesting to see if in a year or two, after he gets closer, he changes his mind and decides to gut it out.

 

Someone said Peavy earlier. That might be a pretty good bet. That dude, 26, will probably still be nasty when he's in his late 30s. And I don't get the vibe that he's all about the money. I think he gets his incentive by blowing people away from the mound.

 

The funny thing about all of the arguments why there won't be another 300-game winner, is that all three current 300-game winners (counting Glavine) blow all of them out of the water.
-- The five-man rotation makes it impossible? All three guys have played their entire careers in the five-man era.
-- Bullpens and managers make it tough? How good were the Braves' bullpens in the 1990s? It was always a weak point for those teams, and they never had a dominant closer. Yet Maddux and Glavine managed to rack up the bulk of their wins with those teams. And until he got to the Yankees, how many great managers did Clemens play for?
-- Injuries will make it impossible? True, but how many guys win 300 games before they turn 40 anyway? Obviously, you have to stay healthy into your early 40s to have a shot.

Bottom line, it takes a special set of circumstances. You have to have skill, luck, and a good team around you. And looking at the current crop of 20-something pitchers, there's not a surefire 300-game winner on the horizon. But to say it's impossible or it'll never happen again is just silly.

 

It's like saying no one will ever hit 60 home runs after Babe Ruth did it or no one will ever pass Ty Cobb in hits. Someone will do it eventually. Chances are, many of us won't see it happen. But Batman's right. It will happen again. Unless Johnson does it, it just won't be for another 15 or so years.

 

I remember these conversations 10 years ago, and we all know how full of crap they ended up being.

There will be another 300 game winner, in fact lots of them. Thanks to performance enhancing drugs, most notably HGH (the fountain of youth), pitchers are pitching longer than ever. Look at how old Clemens, Big Unit, Glavine, Maddux, Moyer, Wells, etc. etc. are.

It appears we'll go through a dry spell unless Randy Johnson comes back. But a new wave will come through in about 10 years and we'll start this argument over again.

My favorite candidate is C.C. Sabathia, who just turned 27 and will probably have 100 wins by the end of the year.

 

Here are some numbers for the last few guys to get there and for Glavine.


Greg Maddux wins by age 27 -- 95, wins from 27-36 -- 178, wins from 37+ -- 67
Tom Glavine wins by age 27 -- 73, wins from 27-36 -- 169, wins from 37+ -- 57
Roger Clemens wins by age 27 -- 95, wins from 27-36 -- 152, wins from 37+ -- 104
Nolan Ryan wins by age 27 -- 69, wins from 27-36 -- 150, wins from 37+ -- 105

 

Wayyyyy too much stress in his motion to last that long.