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The Dead Pool date

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by Drip, Jul 1, 2009.

  1. mustangj17

    mustangj17 Active Member

    Well technically no, because after your child is conceived there are less than 365 days it could be born on - there's a window there.
     
  2. mustangj17

    mustangj17 Active Member

    Also, Calvin Coolidge was born on July Fourth.
     
  3. ArnoldBabar

    ArnoldBabar Active Member

    Yeah, the "1/365 x 1/365 x 1/365" only works on the odds that those specific three guys would all do it. I think you'd have to start with the odds that any of the 40 would die on a certain date, so 40/365 (about 11 percent), then multiply that three times. That leaves a roughly 1.3 percent chance, though someone more learned should check my math.
     
  4. ArnoldBabar

    ArnoldBabar Active Member

    I'm just speaking in generality. It's not like being born on a certain date, or marrying two Tauruses, or using the same brand of toothpaste as your long lost twin, equates to being struck by lightning.
     
  5. mustangj17

    mustangj17 Active Member

    That math is fuzzy.
    40/365 about 11 percent
    1/365=.0027

    11
    x
    .0027 = .0927
    x .0027 = .0000819
    x.0027 i don't know my calculator just says 0. That's how little of a chance there is. We're talking like .0000000711 chance of this happening.

    Note: I failed math in college.
     
  6. ArnoldBabar

    ArnoldBabar Active Member

    My calculations were just for the odds of three dying on the same day. So yeah, if you want to add in which specific day that is, you'd have to then divide it by 365 (or technically 365.25).
     
  7. Oggiedoggie

    Oggiedoggie Well-Known Member

    The odds are 100 percent, proven by the fact that it already happened.
     
  8. MCbamr

    MCbamr Member

    So...you're sayin there's a chance!!!!!! (Now, how do I post a photo of Jim Carrey here?)
     
  9. PeteyPirate

    PeteyPirate Guest

    OK, this appears to be somewhat relevant. At the bottom of this mess of nerdspeak is the conclusion that the probability of three people in a group of 24 sharing a birthdate is roughly 1 in 70. For a group of 40, we can assume it would be slightly higher. If we just pick 1 in 60 out of the air, for the sake of argument, we would then have to calculate the odds of it being a particular date (1 in 365).

    So 1/60 * 1/365 = 1/29,400 or roughly 5/1,000ths of a percent.

    http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56650.html
     
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