Tebow's success explained with stats

It isn't luck and it isn't God. Its great quarterback play.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/11/29/tim.tebow/index.html

Put most simply, Tebow consistently outplays the other team's quarterback, often by wide margins. This superior play is the No. 1 reason for Denver's sudden success -- now 5-1 with Tebow at QB this year after a dismal 1-4 start....

Here's how Tebow stacks up against each opposing quarterback this year in traditional passer rating and in Real Quarterback Rating.

Week 7 -- Denver 18, Miami 15
Matt Moore: 92.6 passer rating; 69.6 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 91.7 passer rating; 80.5 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+10.9)

Week 8 -- Detroit 45, Denver 10
Matt Stafford-Shaun Hill: 126.0 passer rating; 118.2 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 56.8 passer rating; 48.2 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Stafford (+70.0)

Week 9 -- Denver 38, Oakland 24
Carson Palmer: 79.7 passer rating; 69.4 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 98.1 passer rating; 108.2 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+38.8)

Week 10 -- Denver 17, Kansas City 10
Matt Cassel-Tyler Palko: 73.2 passer rating; 67.9 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 102.6 passer rating; 122.7 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+54.8)

Week 11 -- Denver 17, N.Y. Jets 13
Mark Sanchez: 67.9 passer rating; 62.2 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 61.3 passer rating; 87.1 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+24.9)

Week 12 -- Denver 16, San Diego 13
Philip Rivers: 77.1 passer rating, 68.8 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 95.4 pass rating, 94.4 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+25.6)

In other words, Tebow is no statistical circus freak winning in spite of himself. Tebow's Broncos are winning because he consistently outperforms the opposing quarterback when you take into account all aspects of production: passing, running, sacks, total touchdowns, interceptions and fumbles. In fact, he consistently outperforms them by a wide margin.

Denver is 5-0 when Tebow produces a higher Real QB Rating than the opposing quarterback and 0-1 when the other team has the advantage. And those results are no coincidence.

 

But that's not the honorable way to play.

 

That seems like a very long-winded and overly numerical way of saying "he doesn't turn the ball over."

But I approve of anything that sticks in the establishment's craw, so I am for it.

 

Sounds like someone's trying to sell some Real QB metrics.

 

I won't repost stats I've already posted, but I think Byrne misses the point. Tebow isn't outplaying the other QB all game, necessarily. He's WILDLY outplaying him in the fourth quarter. Though as lousy as Tebow often is in the first three quarters, he's not making any negative plays. After Miami and Detroit, he's barely been sacked, and he's not throwing interceptions. And he has a defense that can hold the other team if a three-and-out deep in their own territory gives the other team an advantageous field position.

 

Ratings are exaggerated by the interceptions. Tebow has thrown one so his ratings are higher than Sanchez and Palmer, who threw huge picks to turn games around.

Week 10 -- Denver 17, Kansas City 10
Matt Cassel-Tyler Palko: 73.2 passer rating; 67.9 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 102.6 passer rating; 122.7 Real QB Rating


Tebow was 2-8 for 69 yards and 1 td.

Cassel and Palko were 18-34-140 yds 1 td


Do those stats indicate Tebow outplayed the other two bums?

 

I'm going to wait until our deep-thinking NFL authority tells you all how wrong you are. He'd be here now, but he's thinking - on a whole 'nother level.

 

Debatable -- Tebow had 34.5 yards per completion!!!! -- but when his rushing stats are added in it certainly evens the score. He also was playing with a lead the whole game.

Passer rating and its ilk, like this stat, are being completely misused in this day and age by citing a per-game number. It's nearly impossible to have a passer rating over 100 if you throw an interception and nearly impossible to have a rating under 100 if you don't. The percentage ranges are too wide to have an impact over anything less than a full season or at least four games.

 

Without Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil and the rest of the defense (not to mention his o-line) Tebow is 1-5.

Fran Tarkenton ran for a lot of yards and had an amazing ability to scramble in the pocket but did not get to the SB until he was paired with the Purple People Eaters.

 

Maybe so, but with all of that he is 5-1 where his predecessor was 1-4.

 

Tim Tebow is no Trent Dilfer.

 

Against different opponents when the defense wasn't playing as well.