Sabermetrician in Exile

Someone once told me that you can tell fabricated data because it has an unusually high proportion of the number 7 versus all the other numbers, and often a lower-than-normal proportion of zeroes. Always found that fascinating.

 

People asked to generate strings of random numbers will also put far fewer repeated numbers or strings of numbers in sequence than actual random numbers tend to produce.

 

OK, I'll ask. WTF is DIPS?

 

Defense Independent Pitching Statistics

 

Defense-independent pitching stats.

McCracken and subsequent research has basically proven that almost the entirety of a pitcher's skill is found in his ability to strike batters out, avoid walks and avoid home runs. Over the long run, almost all pitchers will tend give up hits at the same rate for balls that stay in play (about .295).

 

The year C.C. Sabathia got off to a horrible start in Cleveland, I was able to acquire him for absolutely nothing in my fantasy league. I'm sure a lot of people were.

And last year, I basically feel like I stole Cole Hamels in the draft. There was a year, I think, where Ricky Nolasco got sent down to the minors when it was clear he was going to bounce back because of the high BABIP. And he did.

Problem is, now most serious fantasy leaguers - and real-life organizations, for sure - are onto it. So there is no longer much advantage to be gained.

 

Here's the formula:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/mccracken/dipsexpl.html

 

The three most dreaded words on a baseball thread: Here's the formula

 

Every organization in baseball uses this formula. And all the others, too.

That's why I think that the battle ground is now who has the better traditional scouting departments. There is still an edge to be gained there.

 

Bill James said it was a seminal point in the movement.