Ryan Braun - NL MVP

If you really think being in a better lineup didn't help Braun, you have your head shoved way to far up your calculator.

 

I would say the Brewers lineup was slightly overrated - especially after Fielder and before Braun, which is to say, that people are way overrating the rest of the hitters in that lineup.

 

So how did it help? Other than RBI/runs scored, how -- specifically -- did he produce differently because he was "in a better lineup"?

 

I am probably the biggest Matt Kemp fan you will ever meet, that being said I am okay with Braun.

I think Kemp should have won because no one else on the Dodgers did shit this season.

 

More importantly Buck, I think if you take an actual look at the Brewers lineup it was, in many ways, underwhelming except for the big two

 

I have to agree with buckweaver. Braun has had Fielder in the lineup with him for 4 years and didnt put up numbers like this until now. He had a career year in 2011...simple as that. Who "protected" Kemp in the Dodger lineup?

 

More opportunities to drive in runners. More opportunities where pitchers had to at least consider that walking him would bring up another dangerous hitter. Unless y'all figure out a metric for measuring what is in a pitcher's head, you're not going to be able to measure it properly.

That is the largest problem I find with some of the more extreme sabermatricians. If they can't quanitify it they just dismiss it rather than acknowledge that all of their pretty little numbers cannot fully evaluate the game.

 

You know, I do seem to have built an unfortunate reputation here as an "extreme sabermetrician".

However.

I think this is a pretty straightforward theory to evaluate, and I don't see why you're so insistent on denying that lineup protection can't be measured. Yes, you can measure opportunities to drive in runners. Yes, you can measure walk rates and accurately compare a batter's statistics depending on how "dangerous" the hitter behind him is.

Yes, you can also measure "what is in a pitcher's head" (aka "the pitcher's approach") -- whether he throws more fastballs than normal, whether he throws more strikes than normal, whether he's aggressive or whether he nibbles, whether he's in a hitter's or pitcher's ballpark, whether or not he has a lead, whether it's early or late in the game -- and in ALL of these situations, it "has no significant effect on the hitter's statistics."

No significant effect. Maybe a few more strikeouts, definitely a few more walks.

But otherwise, a player with the aptitude of Ryan Braun would put up damn good numbers without Prince Fielder behind him. Just like a player with the aptitude of Prince Fielder has put up damn good numbers for the last half-decade despite Johnny Estrada, Casey McGehee and Corey Hart hitting behind him.

Anyway, I'll defer to J.C. Bradbury on this topic:

 

One of the things you have to understand, outofplace, is that in baseball, everything is quantifiable. That doesn't mean we've found ways to quantify everything. We're particularly struggling with fielding metrics. But we have the data to quantify anything that happens involving the ball and many things that don't even involve the ball.

 

Braun: .433 wOBA 179 wRC+ over 150 games
Kemp: .419 wOBA 171 wRC+ over 161 games

Also, it's interesting to note that Kemp had 126 RBI this season and came to the plate with 471 runners on base. Braun had 111 RBI and only 378 runners on base. Almost 100 runners difference and only 15 RBI less.

Also, you'll find a large disparity amongst fielding metrics as to how good Kemp is.

Not to take anything away from Kemp, but it's not as clear a travesty as some would make it out to be.

 

I didn't say you were an extreme sabermatrician, but you are citing their work.

And in fact, my argument is that lineup protection cannot be measured properly, so it is kind of silly to say that I'm denying it.

 

One, shove the "you don't understand" where the sun don't shine. It's rude and arrogant.

Two, if we haven't found a good way to quantify something, then it cannot be properly measured at this time. So your argument has that flaw as well.