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Roy Oswalt: Hall of Famer?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Dick Whitman, Jan 14, 2012.

  1. Boom_70

    Boom_70 Well-Known Member

    Referencing implies more of a personal action done in the comfort of your own home.
    The first default I use when looking for starting pitchers for my baseball fantasy team is
    w's.
     
  2. Versatile

    Versatile Active Member

    It's actually quite the opposite. Referencing is the more formal of the two. You refer to Roy Oswalt's wins. You reference Bill James' theory on pitcher wins.
     
  3. buckweaver

    buckweaver Active Member

    Not sure if that research, specifically, has been done. We do know who receives good and poor run support, and we do know how pitchers perform in wins and losses. Haven't seen anything yet that combines those two categories and cross-references them. But here's the thing about run support:

    It was important (and long overdue) for baseball people to acknowledge that it had a strong effect on pitcher wins and losses. But most wins and losses, for teams or pitchers, occur because of two factors: good run support AND good pitching.1 But over the long haul, run support generally evens out over the length of a pitcher's career.2 (This is, however, not true on a game-by-game or even a season-by-season basis. Run support can vary wildly in smaller sample sizes. Through the course of a single season, many wins are the result of average pitching and good run support, or vice versa.) For careers, though, win-loss record can usually (not always) give you a solid, basic indicator of how a pitcher performed. Oswalt's peripherals are never going to get him in the Hall of Fame if he's only got 150 wins -- no matter how bad his run support was and how matter how good his rate stats, there's just no way he's done enough in his career to warrant HOF consideration with 150 wins3.

    It's one of the reasons why I'm OK with not phasing out wins and losses entirely, when evaluating pitchers. Because when pitchers win, generally their career splits show they've pitched very well. And when they lose, generally the numbers show they've pitched poorly.

    Check out ERA splits between pitchers' wins and losses; it's a pretty big swing -- usually 1-2 ERA in wins and 5-6 in losses. This is true in almost all cases, regardless of how good a pitcher was overall, regardless of run-scoring environment, regardless of era.

    For example:

    - Greg Maddux: 1.83 in W, 5.66 in L
    - Randy Johnson: 1.86 in W, 6.07 in L
    - Sandy Koufax: 1.34 in W, 5.15 in L
    - Bert Blyleven: 1.60 in W, 5.40 in L

    The effect is similar for not-so-great pitchers, too:

    - Bronson Arroyo: 2.03 in W, 7.78 in L
    - Jim Bouton: 2.07 in W, 5.28 in L
    - Hugh "Losing Pitcher" Mulcahy: 2.33 in W, 5.73 in L

    But the effect is similar for hitters, too. On winning teams or losing teams, stars or scrubs. In wins, their splits are extremely good; in losses, the opposite:

    - Derek Jeter: .341/.411/.501 in W, .269/.338/.368 in L
    - Ernie Banks: .317/.377/.611 in W, .240/.289/.407 in L
    - Nick Punto: .273/.355/.366 in W, .218/.286/.277 in L

    So while some pitchers are provably, demonstrably luckier than others ... and run support is always an important factor to consider ... I prefer to use pitcher performance stats when evaluating pitchers. Wins and losses are extremely flawed, but generally, pitchers who win games tend to allow fewer than 2 earned runs in those games. I can live with that.


    1 There are always outliers, of course -- the 2010 Giants can win the World Series despite a horrible offense, and Bartolo Colon can win 21 games and a brutal Cy Young Award despite a 3.48 ERA in 2005.
    2 Not always, of course: Nolan Ryan and Bert Blyleven got notoriously bad run support (they have two of the three lowest run support per nine career totals since STATS began keeping track in 1974) and Whitey Ford and Don Newcombe got notoriously great run support (link to adjusted run support career leaders thru 2007.)
    3 True, Sandy Koufax was elected with 150 career wins, but his was a once-in-a-century extreme case.
     
  4. Versatile

    Versatile Active Member

    IJAG probably isn't reading this thread, but I'm sure her takeaway from that post is that Nick Punto is better than Derek Jeter.
     
  5. sgreenwell

    sgreenwell Well-Known Member

    Buckweaver's response was rational, reasoned and fair to both sides, so I imagine it'll be ignored going forward.
     
  6. buckweaver

    buckweaver Active Member

    That was exactly my intent, yes. :D
     
  7. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    I think Buckweaver's post just proved that we need to consider W-L for position players more.
     
  8. buckweaver

    buckweaver Active Member

    WAR vs. LAR? [/onlyhalfkidding]
     
  9. 93Devil

    93Devil Well-Known Member

    Over a career, yes.

    But you can have a season of bad luck like Felix had.

    See, you guys converted me on that.:)
     
  10. joe

    joe Active Member

    I'm bringing leeches.
     
  11. Cubbiebum

    Cubbiebum Member

    I hate the wins stat. That said, a lot of voters still weigh it heavily so when talking a pitcher's HoF chances it is very relevant.
     
  12. Football_Bat

    Football_Bat Well-Known Member

    If Oswalt somehow gets over his injury bug and pitches to age 39 or 40 maintaining that ERA, he'll have a shot. (If you have outstanding metrics, wins and losses will take care of themselves, which is why they're secondary, probably tertiary.)

    To make it with numbers up to age 33, he has to be Sandy Koufax. Absolutely transcendent, which Oswalt is not.
     
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