Republican poised for upset in NY-9 (Weiner's Old Seat)

It's a good point. A lot of the Jewish voters in this district are both more religious (i.e. socially conservative on issues like gay marriage) and more committed to Israel than the majority of Jewish voters.

But Obama is getting a rap (fair or not) for being anti-Israel. You can not have to be a great champion of Israel, but if you're viewed as being against Israel, you'll loose a lot more than just the Hasidic vote.

 

To be fair, it was hard for us to know that he was going to show up in the White House and become a raging conservative.

 

A failed liberal is not the same thing as a raging conservative.

 

The results are indistinguishable.

 

On a similar note:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63568.html

Obama's Blue State Blues.

 

The favorable-unfavorable can be misleading... Just because someone views him unfavorably doesn't mean they won't vote for him. Do they view him less unfavorably than Rick Perry or Mitt Romney?

 

Turnout, turnout, turnout.

Obama's 2008 victory was swung on his ability to excite people and turnout the vote of people who wouldn't normally vote. If the electorate had been demographically similar to previous years, it would have been much closer.

If he can't inspire that same group to turn out this time around, he's going to have a much harder time of it.

 

. . . as opposed to debates, where the vastly-overmatched Perry gets shut out. 0-3 so far. Waiting on the Golden Sombrero.

Back to the Texas League, kiddies.